March 21, 2005

Preface

Welcome to my weblog. It is a pleasure to have you with me in this moment.

What is a Present Moment Trading Campaign (PMTC)?

It is a personal solo journey down a unknown road.  The road does not even exist. I create the road one trade and one moment at a time.  I do not know where the road will take me.  There is absolutely no certainty I can make the journey in one piece financially or emotionally. I will need luck to make my way, but luck has always favored the prepared.  And I am very prepared. I have done all I can to prepare for my PMTC. My future is totally and completely in my hands, literally.  You see, the PMTC road is paved one mouse click (trade) at a time. Where will I end up? Well, we will all find out in the passing of time.

Big Breath and exhale.
Big Breath and exhale.
Now let's go for it.

Introduction, Background and Motive -- To New Visitors -- Please read the Intro

Aggressive trading is like a riddle wrapped in an enigma surrounded by a conundrum. A complicated subject that is misunderstood by most, including professionals in my opinion.  For this reason it is my desire that new readers take the time to understand of what I am doing here. The intro is the best place to start.

I have posted daily trading results from day 1 - 23 and will post more results periodically. Most of the blog contains market commentary with charts. Please understand this blog is a personal diary and an educational resource, not an advisory service. I feel no obligation or responsibility to post everyday.

Do not expect me to give you a free lunch with alcoholic beverages.  In other words, I will not reveal the details of my day trading method.  I worked too hard to learn pure and unpublished knowledge directly from the market over the last 22 years of research and trading. With that in mind, I encourage you to read through the entire blog, in chronological order, it won't take long, to get up to speed.  You will be doing yourself a disservice by only checking out my trading results.  There is knowledge contained in this blog worth knowing.  Taking the time to expose yourself to this knowledge is a good idea.

By the way, I am not affiliated with any company or organization. I do not market a service or sell a product of any kind. I trade from home for my own account.

Now its time to go down a very deep rabbit hole. :-)

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My Present Moment Trading Campaign (PMTC) is an experiment in aggressive trading and compounding. My posts will bear witness to my mission to keep my mind exclusively focused on the "present moment" when trading the S&P 500 index. The goal of this trading campaign is to compound a small trading account into a very larger sum of money in the next 12 months. To reach my goals I will need a constantly volatile market and some luck.  But luck has always favored the prepared, and I am very prepared.

It does not take 100K or 50K or even 10K to initiate a campaign. The barriers to entry are low in terms of the initial investment required, but the learning curve is steep as the level of experience required usually takes years of hard work to acquire. However, I have read that some traders have acquired the relevant skills in less than a year. Anyone with a small brokerage account can start a campaign, but most will not be profitable after the first month, not to mention on a daily basis. I am sure you realize that.

Being a consistently profitable trader at a high level is as easy as pushing a mouse button at the right moment. The trick is knowing when that moment has arrived.

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Trading Method and Profit Goal

My trading method involves being in a trade for most of the session and is based on short term price bar pattern recognition, frequent position reversals, tight money management rules, and heavy leverage. In addition, profits are compounded by increasing position size frequently to reflect account growth. My primary goal is to be profitable every week. My edge evolved from my focus and mastery of a single liquid and volatile market that trades virtually 24 hours per day.  My ultimate goal is to compound the campaign account well into eight figures and to limit the maximum campaign drawdown to 36%-40%.  Based on my trading size formula, the worst case scenario is that the maximum drawdown allowed is reached after five consecutive losing days. If I can reach thirty profitable trading days and I have reached my maximum trading size the leverage will decrease over time assuming the trading account continues to grow.

Is eight figures a realistic goal? It has been done by private own account traders for years.  Paul Rotter, 32 years old, is one trader that has made €50-€60+ million ($65-$78 million) per year for 10 years trading Eurex debt futures, primarily the Bund contract. In the Feb/Mar 2005 issue of TRADER Monthly magazine there is a good article about his background and style of trading. In 2003 I received an email from a former Man Financial broker in London who said, "One of our private customers has been the highest volume trader on Eurex for the last 8 years. He trades approx 3 million lots a month and makes himself €50 million a year, which he has apparently been doing for the last 10 years." In 2004 I learned that it is Paul Rotter. Google Paul Rotter and you will find out about an interesting controversy surrounding his trading style.  He is notoriously called "the flipper".  The TRADER Monthly article is the most comprehensive piece on Rotter I have read.  It is worth getting, but you will need to pay for the issue. (Yes, it is a real magazine for and about traders)  The bottom line is there are other traders, we never hear about, making 8 figure profits.  If Rotter's trading style did not attract attention then we would have never heard of him.  If Rotter and others can do it, then maybe you can to. Remember, trading is very risky and you will lose all your money if you do not know what you are doing and when to do it.  So please do not trade unless you are ready and willing to accept and take personal responsibility for the outcome.

Here is an excerpt from the article that clarifies aggressive trading:

...In January 1998, Kinski, Rotter and some other traders formed a Dublin-based prop-trading firm, Greenhouse Capital Management.

Rotter's balls-to-the-wall modus operandi helped Greenhouse prosper, but not without some tense moments. The firm began life with $1.3 million in seed capital and featured, in addition to Kinski and Rotter, two other standout own-accounters, Pino Curcio and Florian Albrecht, the latter one of Rotter's closes boyhood pals. As a unit, they worked well together, though Rotter was clearly the star. "It was do or die," Kinski recalls. "We knew Paul would have these large positions -- in one day we could have been out of business."

By the end of its first day, Greenhouse was up $526,000. Within three months the firm had made $6.5 million, though not without ruffling some feathers. "Paul has sometimes played a controversial role," Kinski acknowledges. "Some traders didn't like him because he was changing his position so quickly." In 2001, Rotter formed Rotter Invest and eventually moved his operations to Zug, Switzerland, an affluent town that's home to its share of traders...

In light of the understandable skepticism with which such trading results are usually met, I have decided to have the cumulative profit totals verified and audited by a reputable accounting firm at the end of the campaign.

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Breaking Through Barriers

By posting my trading results, I hope to inspire you to break through your respective barriers, be they mental, emotional or financial and reach for a higher level of success; a level of success that is only limited by your beliefs and skills, accepting the uncertainty and letting the chips fall where they may. Besides potential monetary gain you will hopefully learn more about yourself and what you are made of than at any other time in your life. That experience is priceless, for unless we push ourselves beyond our limiting beliefs and behavior we are destined to stagnate and atrophy. We all know that failure is certain if one does not take initial action and continued action through out challenging times facing us.

Reaching trading goals is no different from reaching any other goals, the critical success factor is the belief we can handle the present moment and all the uncertainty associated with it. Of course, we will need to maintain courage and keep trying after setbacks. But that has always been the epiphany that leads to success. History is replete with stories of people who have succeeded only after repeated failure. Thomas Edison's invention of the light bulb comes to mind. Never give up and you will never fail, nor will you regret you did not keep trying.

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This weblog is primarily for the benefit of four groups of traders.

The first group includes those trading for a hedge fund or an institution who are tired of working for someone else, but can not give up the perks and large income. They believe they need the support of a big organization to make big money. That may have been true prior to the emergence of electronic trading platforms, reliable broadband internet connections, reliable real time data feeds, very powerful software and PC's, but that is not true today. Very big money can be made trading from home.

The second group includes those, who have experienced repeated trading setbacks and, consequently, formed a rather skeptical attitude toward almost anyone's ability to consistently profit from trading. The ego is a funny thing. Frequently it will not allow one to admit that others may succeed where it has not. Sure it knows this has happened, yet emotions outweigh rational thought, and skepticism wins out.

The third group includes those who have repeatedly experienced trading setbacks, yet have not lost confidence in their ability to succeed. They maintain a winning attitude. This group revels knowing others have succeeded believing they will too eventually.

The fourth group includes those who have had limited success in trading and know they can do better. By making a few mental, emotional and tactical adjustments they can increase profits exponentially.

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Why have I adopted the Market Monk moniker?

An acquaintance once commented how I spend so much time dedicated to the markets, focusing on time and price chart patterns, that I am like a monk meditating. I thought about that and concluded he was right. But what kind of monk am I? Well, I am two monks in one. First I was a scholarly monk during my research and development phase, then I became a jedi monk when I started trading.  Maybe these pictures will give you an interesting visual.

Scriptorium_monk_at_work    Monk

(I physically do not look like either of the above pictures. Notice the wristwatch on the Jedi monk. He must know when the market opens.)
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What have I learned being a Market Monk?

That it symbolizes one who has taken trading to the level of philosophy, insight, and intuition by keeping one's focus in the present moment. For true existence only takes place in the present moment. The past does not exist except in memory or in a physical record. The past appears as a mirage; it looks real but is not. The future rarely plays forward in the exact form we envision or forecast, due to the calculation that the future becomes reality one moment at a time. It appears as quickly as it disappears. By now you may know this in your personal affairs. However, you may not know your finances may be enhanced commensurate with your focus on the present moment. By staying focused on the now moment I am able to see opportunities and take trades with complete flexibility, knowing certainty is not required or needed for a profitable outcome.

It is true that being a Market Monk requires taking complete responsibility for one's relationship with the present moment. And for one to utterly accept the never ending uncertainty of what the next moment will bring. Finding one's footing within this atomic reality (one person within a changing mass) is beyond a paradigm shift. It is finding peace within the chaos of world events and fluctuations while flourishing in the trading markets through a PMTC.

"To live in the presence of great truths and eternal laws, to be led by permanent ideals - that is what keeps a man patient when the world ignores him, and calm and unspoiled when the world praises him" -- Honore De Balzac

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Technical Analysis from a W.D. Gann perspective.

In 1983 I began what has become an ongoing journey as a student of W.D. Gann trading techniques which was kicked-off by attending an investment seminar in Las Vegas presented by Mr. Billy Jones of Lambert-Gann Publishing. (L-GP) Mr. Jones purchased L-GP in the 1960's, which is now managed by his widow, Nikki Jones.

For more information go to Lambert-Gann Publishing Company and to "An Introduction to the Methods of WD Gann" by Bryce Gilmore. See the Trading Resources at the left margin of the weblog for additional links.

Mr. Gann was a legendary stock and commodity market forecaster, trader, author of several books and publisher of a monthly newsletter from an office on Wall St., near the NYSE. He recommended position trading, advising strongly against day trading although he documented successful short term trading campaigns early in his career. I appreciate this position. However, the internet did not exist in his time. And considering today's powerful personal computers, real time charting software, real time price feeds, real time millisecond order entry software, I have concluded that Mr. Gann, who passed on in 1955, would be also be a day trader if he were alive today.

As a student of the markets for 22 years, I have learned and know that accurate long term forecasting is mathematically and geometrically do-able using Mr. Gann's techniques. (For more on my long term outlook please read through the March and April 2005 Archive. (It contains charts, analysis and commentary worth reviewing) Accurately forecasting the hourly movements everyday is more challenging and can be counter productive because of the bias forecasting creates in our mind. As a consequence, and this is the essential point, I do not forecast the market while day trading. Rather I effectively focus on the present moment, trading the price bar patterns.

By the way, Paul Rotter subscribes to a W.D. Gann based daily commentary service published by Juliette Clark called GannCorner.

For those of you who do not understand what technical analysis is and would like an introduction, Investopedia is a good starting point.

Thank you again for stopping by and all the best in your journey through every wonderful moment.

Good Trading.......Market Monk

Learning to Trading in the Golden Era - Initial Thoughts

Accurately recorded daily and intraday price history on widely traded markets is relatively new.  Wheat prices have been recorded since the 1200's, but only on a monthly closing basis. (please correct me if I am wrong) Also, from what I understand the Japanese recorded rice prices using candlestick charting techniques for many centuries, but rice is not widely traded now. The tulip market lasted 77-80 years beginning in 1559 and then blew up. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) started trading under a Buttonwood tree in 1792, but only recorded closing prices initially and did not record high/low price data until the late 1800's. Basically we have a little more than 200 years of accurate daily, not intraday, data on widely traded assets to analyze.

Intraday data is available for most commodities going back only 30 - 50 years, but there is no widely available intraday stock market data going back more than 23 years, that I am aware of. (The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) started trading S&P 500 futures in 1982) That is a short amount of time when looking at the BIG picture. Only 15 years has past since the cost of real time price data came down to an affordable level for the home based trader. But in 1990 the PC, the MS Windows OS, and charting software was not powerful or stable. In 1995 dialup 56k internet usage reached critical mass in the US and PC processing power and software became adequate to crunch and chart the data. Broadband internet usage has now reached critical mass in highly developed countries, but it will be several more years before there is 90% penetration in the US and probably 10-20+ years before 50%+ of the worlds population has broadband access. Today anyone with broadband, an entry level PC and less then $100 per month can get into the trading business and have real time access to all price data worldwide.

We have only begun to learn about how price will function in this new real time world. Not only will price patterns continue to evolve into more complex fractals, but will do so at an exponentially faster rate of change. That is exciting to me.  In my opinion, we have entered the beginning of a golden era in markets and trading. Prior to the year 2000, never before has the entire world population with access to a phone line also had access to the same detailed price data at the same time. (I am estimating that ISP availability reached world wide critical mass in 2000) Talk about a paradigm shift.  Part of the reason for my Present Moment Trading Campaign is to prove to myself and others that anyone can start small and grow to eventually make very BIG profits trading from home.  I am not talking about several thousand dollars per month. I am talking about several million dollars per month.

No matter what happens to the political structure of governments in the future, there is no question in my mind that human beings will survive and need to conduct commerce to exist and grow.  Where there is commerce there are markets. And where there are markets there are exchanges and hence price data. I would love to come back 1000, 2000 and 5000 years from now and analyze historical price data up to that point in time.  How fascinating that would be, having memory of current times.

Learning to Trade in the Golden Era - Additional Thoughts

In this post I am adding some additional thoughts to my thesis about entering a "Golden Era".

Trading in the real time world of the 21st century is the beginning of the next phase in the development of markets and commerce.  Prior to the year 2000, never before has the entire world population with access to a phone line also had access to the same detailed price data at the same time.  The significance of this can not be over stated.  Access to accurate information and data has always been the dividing factor between success and failure. Whether in trading, commerce, politics or war, timely and accurate information is the key to making the correct decision at the right time. Since the beginning of time that access has always favored the insiders and well connected players.

The following two stories speak for themselves.

"One would, at first glance, believe it difficult to draw a connection between racing pigeons and the Rothschild banking dynasty. However it seems that they increased enormously their fortune in 1815 with the exceptional help of what was then called a carrier pigeon. When Napoleon was defeated at Waterloo, Count Rothschild knew of his defeat long before any other persons in England. He had received this critical information via carrier pigeon. This advance knowledge allowed him to make critical decisions that made an enormous fortune possible. Here is a prime example of the reality that, knowledge and its timely use, in fact, are the ultimate in power!

In the 19th Century Julius Reuter founded the news service that globally still caries his name 150 years later. The Reuters news service was actually founded as a line of pigeon posts. The Reuters pigeons helped the banks of Aachen make fortunes and avoid bankruptcy."
Racing Pigeons story link

Racing pigeons, used by the Romans, was the first major advancement in long distance communications, which was the state of the art for many centuries. The next advancement was the telegraph machine (1843), then the ticker tape (1867), the telephone (1876), the radio (1895), the television (1927), the satellite (1957), the cell phone (1973) and now the internet. In each case it took 20-40+ years for each technological advancement to reach critical mass usage.  At each stage in the development of improved information flow was a corresponding leveling of the playing field. That leveling is now complete. The advantage insiders and well connected players had in the past is gone forever.  Also, most markets trade electronically now, so the advantage exchange floor traders have enjoyed for over 200 years is now also gone forever. This means that anyone can trade from anywhere on the planet and have real time access to the same information as the professionals on Wall St. and in Chicago, London, Frankfurt and Tokyo.  This is a huge shift in the playing field.

The key to accepting my thesis about entering a Golden Era is in your mind, in other words, your belief system.  There is no physical barrier to entry.  The only barrier is psychological and emotional. The game is open to all. There is nothing stopping anyone from getting in the game and playing with the big boys at the same level.  It will take time for this reality to sink in.  But in the next 20+ years it will be as obvious to the average American, European, Chinese and Indian hourly wage earner as it is obvious to me today.  There are now 6+ billion people on the planet, which will grow to 7+ billion in 20 years, and if only 10% get into trading and investing the markets will change in ways no one can imagine today.  We have not seen anything yet.

Trading has the potential to become the biggest growth industry on the planet. Name one other endeavor, job or profession that anyone with a little seed capital, a PC and internet access can do by themselves, from anywhere on the planet, without the help of others, in both prosperous or depressed economic times, and potentially make millions per month.  All other money making opportunities require economic growth to profit. Trading does not. For those  who don't already know this fact, profits can be made when the markets move up or down. I make several long and short trades everyday in the S&P 500 index market.

In the long run, growth is inevitable. But there are periodically short periods of time, 3 years or less, when economic growth stops and reverses. Trading offers a major advantage over other businesses during recessions and depressions.  The inevitable economic shake out is part of the growth process and I welcome its coming as much as prosperous times.  In other words, trading offers a never ending potential for profit.  That is unique and not widely understood by most investors, but that is changing. The real time information dissemination process has gone into high gear. If I reach my trading campaign profit goals, this blog will create some major buzz.  This is my small contribution to the information flow process.

Trading opportunities today and forever into the future are growing as fast as technological advancements and are larger than ever before and go beyond the comprehension of the average person.  And that is where my Present Moment Trading Campaign comes in, making the obvious potential a reality for all who are interested to see.  Whether I succeed or fail is irrelevant.  The point is, it is time to start trying and that is what I am doing.  I visualize everyday, through thought and action, growing my campaign account consistently by methodically trading every hour of every trading day with strict discipline and without hesitation while following my methodology rules. I am doing it one trade at a time.  I risk very little equity per trade and average better than a 4:1 risk/reward ratio. My trading method does not require hitting home runs to reach my profit goals, it is about being the most consistent singles and doubles hitter the game has every seen.

In the fiat money system we all live in today there is no monetary limit to growth.  As communications, processing power, productivity, efficiency, and demand for goods and services grow exponentially; so does the monetary base from which to finance it.  Many will want to argue with me in their in own minds and via email regarding my opinion.  Have fun arguing with yourself, please leave me out of it. There are obvious pros and cons to the current monetary system we live with today.  Yes it was formed by the "Money Trust" boy's made up of Robber Barons and the Moneychanging bankers of the early 1900's. And yes it is unstable in the long run and creates market volatility in the short run, called the boom-bust cycle, but so what.  That is exactly the way they want it, because they are all traders.  The Rothschild's, J.P. Morgan and all the others have always been traders and always will be traders. I encourage you to get in sync with the monetary system and learn how it works and start playing the biggest game in the world for all its worth.

I enjoy challenging myself and that is what I am doing via my trading campaign.  Learning how to become consistently profitable at trading took me a fair amount of time and hard work. I finally realized that existing and functioning in the present moment without fear or greed is the key I was looking for. It may take you years to develop trading skills, but once you have, the sky is the limit on your profit potential.

The question now becomes how does one profit from all the real time information available today. In my opinion, the answer lies in specialization and filtering.  Become a master of one trade instead of a jack of all trades. I have done this by choosing one market to trade and then use technical analysis to filter the data so decision making is easier and more accurate. It is time to focus on one market and become a master of that market. In other words, pick one stock, one index, one debt instrument, one currency, or one commodity and learn how to trade it.

With that in mind I have linked to an excellent article written by Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D. entitled Learning to Trade:  The Psychology of Expertise. His implicit learning thesis is THE KEY to learning when to take a trade.

By the way, Dr. Steenbarger was hired by Mr. Steve Cohen of SAC Capital Advisors to coach his traders. Mr. Cohen is considered the most powerful trader on Wall St. according to a Business Week article dated July 21, 2003.  Forbes estimates his net worth at over $2 billion, which I think is low.

All the best, Market Monk

March 22, 2005

Day 1 Trading Results

Total percentage gain since March 22, 2005 = 52.1%

Total profit for today = 2,605
Total profit for the month = 2,605
Total profit for entire campaign = 2,605

Total Number of trades = 10
Total Number of profits = 7
Total Number of losses = 3

March 23, 2005

Day 2 Trading Results

Total percentage gain since March 22, 2005 = 175.76%

Total profit for today = 6,183
Total profit for the month = 8,788
Total profit for entire campaign = 8,788

Total number of trades = 19
Total number of profits = 18
Total number of losses = 1

March 24, 2005

Day 3 Trading Results

Total percentage gain since March 22, 2005 = 313.0%

Total profit for today = 6,862
Total profit for the month = 15,650
Total profit for entire campaign = 15,650

Total number of trades = 15
Total number of profits = 13
Total number of losses = 2

S&P; 500 Long Term Time and Price Symmetry with Wave Count

In this post I would like to focus on long term time and price symmetry.  I have included three charts below for your review. 1) S&P 500 Monthly Bar 2) S&P 500 Weekly Bar 3) Decennial Cycle Line Chart. Clicking on the charts below will enlarge them in separate windows that can be moved on your desktop thereby enabling comparison viewing and reading of my post.

The decennial cycle is a very powerful analog pattern that has been used and will continue to be used to accurately anticipate time periods for major changes in trend in the US stock market.  I have included a chart created by seasonalcharts.com that clearly displays this cycle. The chart is a composite analog of every decade since 1897. Notice that Q3 of the year ending in "2" clearly is THE low of the cycle. Now turning to my S&P 500 monthly chart, please take note of my "Long Term Time Analysis" commentary on the left side of the chart. It is not a coincidence that July 1932, April 1942, May 1952, June 1962, August 1982 (wave 2) and July and October 2002 (wave 4) are important lows.  The triple bottom pattern is also important to notice.  I have included a 144 month (12yr) simple moving average (SMA) on the chart.  Notice the support the average gave the market in August 1982 and again in 2002-2003, testing the average 3 times. Also, the primary 50% retracement at 806 was clustering with the 144 month SMA in July 2002 when the first of three bottoms was made. That is powerful mathematical support. (see S&P500 Monthly chart commentary)  When one considers the significance of the facts, the implications are clear.  The S&P 500 is still in a bull market and the decennial cycle in still in control. The S&P 500 Weekly chart clearly displays the end of primary wave 3 , 4 and 1 of 5. Notice the clean 5 wave impulse pattern starting at the end of wave 4 in October 2002 and ending March 7, 2005. Wave 2 of 5 is forming now. (Please remember this is only my opinion. Please respect my opinion and do not argue with my viewpoint in your own mind or via email. Absorb the information and then let it go. Keep an open mind. I know I do. Thank you for your understanding.)

Taking the time to deeply study and verify what has happened will develop your understanding of the relationship between time and price. Get the data and compare the decennial cycle chart to the decade of the 20's, 30's, 40's, 50's 80's,90's and 2000-present and you will clearly see the cyclic patterns. There are many and I encourage you to find them. As long as the market continues to track the decennial cycle I will expect higher prices until the cycle tops. A move below the October 2002 low would be a break from the cycle and suggest a lose of influence. But until that happens the S&P 500 is on track to move much higher until Q4 2009 - Q1 2010.  As W.D. Gann believed, and I agree, the fundamental influence of natural law is at work here and should not be ignored.  The power of the cycles are profound.

I realize that some believe we are in a secular bear market and will see a repeat of the 60's and 70's large trading range price patterns or a waterfall decline similar to the DJIA 1929-1932, but over a longer period of time. I my opinion, the Nasdaq Composite 2000-2002 pattern was the waterfall decline they are looking for. It has already happened and in virtually the same amount of time as the 1929-1932 period! (see S&P500 monthly chart for details) A secular bear market will revisit us, but not at this time.  Here is my reason why.  The current price patterns are bullish, by definition, and the market is tracking the decennial cycle precisely at this time. Time cycles repeat themselves.  That is clear. In addition, The Value Line Arithmetic Index went to a new all time high in August 2003 and continued moving strongly higher making new highs this month in a 5 wave pattern. That is bullish by definition. The Russell 2000 Index went to new all time highs in November 2003 and has formed a 5 wave pattern as of January 2005. That is bullish by definition. The NYSE Composite Index  also has developed a 5 wave pattern at new all time highs this month. That is bullish by definition. And I have only mentioned the US market.  Look at Australia, Austria, India, Mexico and other Major World Indices and you will see the world is bullish with many markets at new all time highs. That is bullish by definition.  If I may also mention the extremely positive economic growth fundamentals of China, India and Eastern Europe and one can not dispute the very bullish evidence easily. The next great bull market is here and it started in 2002 right on schedule. 

I will truly enjoy trading and watching what happens in the years ahead. I love putting the pieces of this wonderful dynamic and evolving puzzle together from time and price perspective.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Sp500_monthly_wave_count_1974_to_mar_24_    Sp500_weekly_wave_count_mar_24_2005   10_year_seasonal_cycle_pattern_of_djia_3

Russell 2000 Long Term Wave Count

Elliott Wave counting is subjective and riddled with numerous possibilities.  The fact that all well known and published "wave counters" have added rules and patterns to R.N. Elliott's original work speaks directly to this fact. Price patterns will never stop evolving into more complex fractals.

With that in mind, here is my count on what the current wave patterns reveal at this important time and price juncture.  The Russell 2000 has completed wave 1 of primary 5 at the March high.  Wave 2 is forming now. My count is partly based on the fact that the index has been tracking the decennial cycle precisely, which suggests the overall market is headed much much higher going into Q4 2009 - Q1 2010. If it was not for the extremely bullish "5th" year pattern of the decennial cycle I would be bearish at this time, looking for a very large correction down. But the patterns are clear, a shallow wave 2 is the most probable pattern to expect. That is the way I see at this point in time.  Not much middle ground here.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Russell_2000_weekly_wave_count_march_18_    Russell_2000_daily_wave_count_march_18_2    Russell_2000_weekly_wave_count_jan_2005  

The Decennial Cycle and the 5th Year

So far I have lived through two "5th" years of the decennial cycle since I started trading.  The research I have done and that of others going back to 1805 confirm the power of "5th" years.  The odds favor a strong up year for 2005 and I believe the decennial cycle is a big reason why.

The "5th" year of each decade has been down only 4 times in 200 years with an average decline of -5.57%. All the down years occurred between 1805-1875. Since 1885 every "5th" year has been up. As history reveals no bear market has ever started in the 5th year of the decade.  I do not look at anything else when it comes to forecasting. Call me simplistic and naive. I only focus on TIME and PRICE.  I work with facts. History and patterns are my guide.  The probabilities of a large down 5th year is very low.  I expect the high probability outcome to happen.  Call me contrary or weird or whatever.

Up to this point in time, 2005 is developing close to 1925 and 1945. Both years had early March highs followed by late March lows and then strong rallies. The potential is big, but only time will tell if it is fulfilled. Forecasting is an academic exercise that I enjoy dabbling in, but it in no way influences my trading during the day. All I focus on when trading is the present moment and what I see happening now , not what I expect or forecast in the future. This is key because the only way I can potentially profit everyday is to remain focused on the present moment with complete flexibility.

Click on charts to enlarge.

10_year_seasonal_cycle_pattern_of_djia_2     10_yr_patterns_of_us_indu_stock_prices_1_3    5th_yr_of_decennial_cycle_from_1805_3    Dow_1925_3    Dow_1945_3

DJIA 1921-1935 vs Nasdaq Comp 1992-2004

Investors Business Daily published a nice analog chart on August 17, 2004.  I thought I would include it in my weblog for your review.

Click on chart to enlarge.

Dow_1921_35_vs_nasdaq_1992_2004 

Source: IBD http://www.investors.com/images/editimg/feature0817.gif

Nasdaq 100 Weekly Bar Chart With Spring Turn Dates

The Nasdaq 100 Weekly Chart is forming an interesting bar chart pattern.  All that is needed from this point forward is a large up day on big volume to confirm an important low has been made.  Time is running out however.  The market needs to prove itself next week. By the way, the spring turn dates listed in the chart are from the SP500 and DJIA.

Click on chart to enlarge.

Nasdaq_100_weekly_spring_turn_dates

S&P; Composite Mirror Pattern Chart by Ron Griess

Mr. Ron Griess has an extensive data base and creates wonderful charts.  Here is an example.  His services are offered at The Chart Store.

His S&P 500 Time Symmetry chart is almost in sync with my work, suggesting an important low in early March.  My work is projecting a low in later March / early April.  Please see my spring turn dates post.

Click on chart to enlarge.
Updated

Sp_composite_mirror_pattern_june_17_2005

March 25, 2005

S&P; 500 Daily Chart with Measured Move Examples In 2004

Back in early August 2004 the SP500 index was going down hard right into a major time and price support zone.  The screen shot of Chart 1 below was taken on August 6 and at the time I was expecting a bottom inside the yellow time and price box. (see chart for details)  The low was made on Friday August 13 at 1060.72 and was confirmed by a large move up the following Monday August 16.  Chart 2 shows what happened after the forecast. Measured move projections are very useful when trying to pick tops and bottoms, especially when time cycles and oscillators are in sync.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Chart 1                                                                            Chart 2

Sp500_cash_daily_aug_6_2004   Sp500_daily_2004_measured_move_examples

Russell 2000 Index Measured Move Projections

The Russell 2000 Index has displayed clean price symmetry for several years. The charts below show the most impressive examples.  The low for the year in 2001, 2002 and 2004 was called by a 100% measured move projection.  Will it happen in 2005?  We will soon find out.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Russell_2000_weekly_measured_moves_2001__1     Russell_2000_weekly_measured_moves_2004__1    

Cycle Predictions by Dr. Stephen Rinehart

Dr. Stephen Rinehart of Lynn Haven, Florida loves to crunch numbers and find patterns in the chaos of price data.  He is completely independent. For a very entertaining read of an extremely dry subject read through his articles posted and archived at the Financial Sense University website. 

The following cycle prediction charts on the stock market are saying something different about the future than the decennial cycle and its tendency to have up year in 2005 and overall through Q4 2009 - Q1 2010. As always, forecasting is not an exact science, but a fun academic exercise to do none the less.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Nyse_weekly_predicted_thru_2005    Nasdaq_compx_weekly_cycle_prediction_thr    Sp_500_monthly_cylcle_prediction_thru_20   Sp500_weekly_cycle_prediction_thru_2015_

ExxonMobil Technical Top Pattern

ExxonMobil (XOM) had a classic technical sell signal on March 9.  I thought I would share it with you.  The parabolic price rise since January 6 is most impressive when one considers XOM became the most valuable company on the planet because of this move.  Mkt Cap = 415 billion at the high / 392 billion at the close on March 9.  By the way, ExxonMobil preceded the topping pattern in crude oil this week.

Click on charts to enlarge.

Xom_daily_mar_9_2005_1  Xom_daily_mar_24_2005_3  Crude_oil_daily_mar_24_2005_1

March 28, 2005

Day 4 Trading Results

Total percentage gain since March 22, 2005 = 357.4%

Total profit for today = 2,220
Total profit for the month = 17,870
Total profit for entire campaign = 17,870

Total number of trades = 10
Total number of profits =  7
Total number of losses = 3

March 29, 2005

Day 5 Trading Results

Total percentage gain since March 22, 2005 = 564.94%

Total profit for today = 10,377
Total profit for the month = 28,247
Total profit for entire campaign = 28,247

Total number of trades = 12
Total number of profits = 4
Total number of losses = 8

March 30, 2005

Day 6 Trading Results

Total percentage gain since March 22, 2005 = 846.64%

Total profit for today = 14,085
Total profit for the month = 42,332
Total profit for entire campaign = 42,332

Total number of trades = 9
Total number of profits = 8
Total number of losses = 1

March 31, 2005

Day 7 Trading Results

Total percentage gain since March 22, 2005 = 1,242.40%

Total profit for today = 19,788
Total profit for the month = 62,120
Total profit for entire campaign = 62,120

Total number of trades = 16
Total number of profits = 14
Total number of losses = 2

April 01, 2005

Day 8 Trading Results

Total percentage gain since March 22, 2005 = 2,184.12%

Total profit for today = 47,086
Total profit for the month = 47,086
Total profit for entire campaign = 109,206

Total number of trades = 19
Total number of profits = 14
Total number of losses = 5

April 04, 2005

Day 9 Trading Results

Total percentage gain since March 22, 2005 = 3,390.56%

Total profit for today = 60,322
Total profit for the month = 107,408
Total profit for entire campaign = 169,528

Total number of trades = 12
Total number of profits = 10
Total number of losses = 2

April 05, 2005

Day 10 Trading Results

Total percentage gain since March 22, 2005 = 3,793.56%

Total profit for today = 20,150
Total profit for the month = 127,558
Total profit for entire campaign = 189,678

Total number of trades = 12
Total number of profits = 9
Total number of losses = 3

April 06, 2005

Day 11 Trading Results

Total percentage gain since March 22, 2005 = 4,153.06%

Total profit for today = 17,975
Total profit for the month = 145,533
Total profit for entire campaign = 207,653

Total number of trades = 13
Total number of profits = 11
Total number of losses = 2

April 07, 2005

Day 12 Trading Results

Total percentage gain since March 22, 2005 = 5,349.56%

Total profit for today = 59,825
Total profit for the month = 205,358
Total profit for entire campaign = 267,478

Total number of trades = 11
Total number of profits = 11
Total number of losses = 0

April 08, 2005

Day 13 Trading Results

Total percentage gain since March 22, 2005 = 5,954.06%

Total profit for today = 30,225
Total profit for the month = 235,583
Total profit for entire campaign = 297,703

Total number of trades = 18
Total number of profits = 11
Total number of losses = 7

The Law of Accelerating Returns by Ray Kurzweil

The following essay is a good evening or weekend read when you feel like expanding your thoughts about the potential of the future.  Trading to make millions of dollars may seem great and exciting, but what Mr. Kurzweil is talking about makes all the mundane things we do on a daily basis seem trivial.

I hope I live long enough to experience the "singularity".

The Law of Accelerating Returns
by    Ray Kurzweil

An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). The "returns," such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There's even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity -- technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.

Published on March 7, 2001 at KurzweilAI.net

April 10, 2005

The Irony of Long Term "Buy & Hold " Investing vs. Day Trading the S&P; 500 Index

Long term Investing
Considered safe and low risk.  Easy to do. No learning required. Buy the index in one long (buy) trade and hold until retirement. Low commission cost. 15% capital gains tax. Requires a bull market to profit. Impossible to make profits everyday. Requires positive economic environment. Requires the Federal Reserve Bank and the Federal Government make all the right decisions. Requires stable infrastructure and peace. Requires no homeland security lapses or terrorist attacks. Requires that in order to maximize profit potential that the market closes at an all time high on the exact day you decide to retire and sell the position.  The investor has no control over the outcome using this approach. I call it the co-dependent investment strategy.  Depend on everything being positive and everyone doing their job, but yourself.

Day Trading
Considered very very risky. Very hard to do and very time consuming to learn. Hundreds and even thousands of trades depending on the method. High commission costs. 23% effective tax rate. Limited risk per trade using stop loss orders. No matter what happens to the economy, the government, to corporate profits, interest rates, inflation, the infrastructure due to wear and tear or homeland terrorist attacks or anything else; as long as the market is open, functioning and moving there is profit potential everyday.  In order for this to be true you most be flat and out of the market at the end of each trading day and over the weekend. The trader has complete control over his profit potential using this approach. I call this the taking personal responsibility for your money and its growth investment strategy.

Which approach has the highest probability of success with the least amount of risk and the greatest profit potential?  The answer depends on you and your skills. I find the irony very interesting. Conventional wisdom about this issue is upside down and twisted in knots. I am reminded of the timeless truism, "You get what you pay for".

April 11, 2005

I would like to know more about who you are...

Tom recently wrote an email to me:

Hello,
I found your blog and I am interested in it. I am a junior at Carnegie Mellon University and I will be working for a small asset management firm in Boston this summer. I would like to know more about who you are, what you are trading to attain your results, do you take into account commissions? I am curious because your blog is very interesting. Thanks, I hope to hear from you soon.
Tom

Here is my reply:

I trade SP500 futures.

Yes, I have deducted commission cost, which are $4-$6 per contract round turn based on monthly volume.

I am a private trader working from home and trade for my own account.  I started trading part time in 1983.  Went full time in 1994.

I took 18 months to develop and refine my proprietary day trading methodology. I learned from the market directly.  My method is based on pure market knowledge and not derived from a black box or canned "trading system" based on faulty back testing.

I sit in front of nine monitors at 1600x1200 res with full screen charts set at various time frames.

To learn more read the essay on "Learning to Trade.... by Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D.
Read Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas
Read How to Make Profits in Commodities by W.D.Gann (applicable to stocks also)

Go into implicit learning mode for at least one year (252 trading days) for 8 hours per day. You will know what I mean after reading Steenbarger's essay.

Focus on one market only in order to build the neural network knowledge base in your brain. In other words, become a monk for at least one year (252 trading days).  The amount of time depends on your aptitude.

I have an extremely high aptitude for pattern recognition and a very good memory.  The charts help me remember also.

Good Luck and I wish you all the best in your personal traders journey,
Market Monk

Trading affirmations CD

A trader friend sent me a trading affirmation CD as a gift.  I had no idea that is was coming in the mail.  I listened to it a few times and give it a big thumbs up.  When I first started trading 1983 it would have been very helpful.  For rookie and intermediate traders I think the CD will be helpful. Check it out.

By the way,  I am not familiar with the company selling the CD.  They sell a trading course.  I do not know anything about it.  Caveat Emptor.  Get a real money track record based on their system before deciding to buy a course or system from them.  I am not recommending anything but the affirmations CD.

Good Trading,
Market Monk

Day 14 Trading Results

Total percentage gain since March 22, 2005 = 7,573.06%

Total profit for today = 80,950
Total profit for the month = 316,533
Total profit for entire campaign = 378,653

Total number of trades = 13
Total number of profits = 11
Total number of losses = 2

Time to pump up the volume.  I increased my trading volume today by increasing the leverage.  Today I traded $5,920,000 worth of stock using $302,703 in account equity. (297,703 + 5,000)

A big FEAR FACTOR warning. Do not attempt these stunts at home. Leverage is a double edge sword. Be prepared to have your mouse button finger handed to you if you are not an experienced samurai worrier.  :-)

(my attempt at being somewhat humorous, I really need to work on my sense of humor. My girlfriend is getting tired of it.)


April 12, 2005

Risk, Losing and Coming Back

On the first day of this campaign I was taking $112 risk per trade. Yesterday, day 14, I took $5,600 risk per trade. If all goes as planned, I will be taking over $50,000 risk per trade in the future.

My drawdown rules require I stop trading if I lose on 10 trades in a row or the equivalent dollar amount during any trading day. That means on day 1 is was willing to lose $1,120 before stopping. Yesterday I was willing to lose $56,000. And hopefully in the not too distant future I will be risking over $500,000 a day. Take a moment to let that sink in. Imagine yourself in my shoes. How would you, at your stage of development as a trader, handle it?

My answer to the same question is, I do not know how I will handle it. I have never been there before.  I have visualized being there. I am mentally and emotionally prepared.  But until I get there I really don't know how I will handle risking and possibly losing $500,000 in one day. I will find out when I get there.

Paul Rotter almost quit trading after losing 2.5 million euros in one day.

Here is an excerpt translated from a German language interview he had with Traders Magazine:

q: there is a saying that every trader has to completely blow up his account at least once before he can become successful. what did you learn out of it?
a: like I earlier said, my private account saw some bad times during my apprenticeship with the bank, although I must admit, that back then I had absolutely no idea that there was something like 'risk-management'. later on I found 7-digit losses to be cumbering. one day I had a blackout after losing 2,5 million (euros) and I was seriously thinking about stopping. I still had enough capital left to live without having to worry about financial issues and I just wouldn't want to take those psychological hits anymore. after taking 4 weeks off, I regained my motivation and returned in the ring. I was able to make up the loss in a relatively short period of time, so that I came out stronger than before.

q: has this changed the views of the market in a way?
a: with the experience of bigger losing days coupled with good phases right afterwards, I'm not so sensitive to losing days anymore. I know that I can make it back. this has lead to being able to switch off the screens on a day with medium/small losses more easily, instead of forcing the way back into positive territory.

q: what are your strengths as a world-class trader and where are the differences between you and other traders?
a: it's the ability to get more aggressive in winning phases, taking bigger risks, and scaling back in losing times. this is against human nature. the best thing is to have somebody around who is neutral to trading, that switches the terminals off, when a certain loss level has been reached for the day.
Excerpt End

Rotter came back strong. Would I be able to come back after a loss of that size?  Would you be able to come back? We will know individually with the passing of time.

How does one get to the point where the subconscious mind accepts the monetary risk associated with trading and losing big? By convincing it you know what you are doing and can make it and survive despite setbacks. In my opinion, the only way to get to that point is to spend at least 2016+ hours in implicit learning mode trading with a very small amount of money.  The fastest way to get the hours under your belt is by going full time and take at least 1 - 2 trades every hour for 8 hours each trading day. Once the hours and trades are in, then growing your personal volume per trade to a big number is just a question of equity and a few clicks of your mouse button.  That is the beauty of trading.  Making 1000 times more profit is as simple and as hard as that.

By the way, before trading real money make sure you have developed a viable trading method.  There is real time simulation trading software available through some brokerage firms that let you get real time practice in to test your method. Only after you have covered all the bases and you know your method works should you trade with a small amount of real money.

I wish you all the best. May you reach the levels you desire during your traders journey.

Market Monk

Thinking in Probabilities

Thinking in terms of probabilities is an important aspect to becoming a consistent and profitable trader.

In the book, Trading in the Zone,  Mark Douglas writes on page 121:

To think in probabilities, you have to create a mental framework or mind-set that is consistent with the underlying principles of a probabilistic environment.  A probabilistic mind-set pertaining to trading consists of five fundamental truths.

1. Anything can happen.

2. You don't need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money.

3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.

4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.

5. Every moment in the market is unique.

Keep in mind that your potential to experience emotional pain comes from the way you define and interpret the information you're exposed to.  When you adopt these five truths, your expectations will always be in line with the psychological realities of the market environment.  With the appropriate expectations, you will eliminate your potential to define and interpret market information as either painful or threatening, and you thereby effectively neutralize the emotional risk of trading.

The idea is to create a carefree state of mind that completely accepts the fact that there are always unknown forces operating in the market. When you make these truths a fully functional part of your belief system, the rational part of your mind will defend these truths in the same way it defends any other belief you hold about the nature of trading...

Trading in the Zone is a must read for everyone from long term investors to aggressive day traders.  If you are serious about being a successful investor and/or trader then it is vital you understand how your mind and emotions work when it comes to money and risk.

Market Monk

Day 15 Trading Results

Total percentage gain since March 22, 2005 = 11,518.06%

Total profit for today = 197,250
Total profit for the month = 513,783
Total profit for entire campaign = 575,903

Total number of trades = 10
Total number of profits = 6
Total number of losses = 4

I was able to increase my trading size by 50% above yesterday by compounding profits. The strong rally after the FOMC minutes were released made today a very good day. As a result, I will be able to increase my trading size by 50% again tomorrow, if I want to.

April 13, 2005

Compounding

The following is an email reply to Tyson.  I thought everyone would like to read it.

Tyson,

I will answer your questions, but please understand a lot of reading and implicit learning is required to gain knowledge. So get busy and start doing your homework. There is no free lunch in this business and I know you realize that. Please spend at least 100 hours studying before asking any more questions.

--Read Learning to Trade... essay by Steenbarger 3x
--Read Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas 3x
--Read How to Make Profits in Commodities by W.D. Gann 3x
--Read Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets and study guide by John J. Murphy 3x
--Read Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets by Stan Weinstein 3x
--Put in some significant screen time with the market of your choice.
--Get at least 3-6 large monitors, using 1600x1200 res, and use full screen charts so you can see enough history to get a perspective. By the way, I prefer a black background in my charts which significantly cuts down on brightness and glare. You will save your eyes in the long run.

Go to the CME website and learn about performance bond (margin) requirements for futures contracts. Overnight (outright) is the minimum the exchange requires. The brokerage can demand higher margin from there clients. Many brokerages will only charge 50% of the overnight margin for day trading. That is why I can compound profits so quickly. I am using $2500-$5000 in account equity to control 1 - SP500 eMini contract which has a value of $59,400 as of this minute. (the index price x $50 = value) Last trade is 1188.00 x 50 = 59,400

Day 1 I started with 5k and traded 2 contracts.
Day 2 I started with 7.6k and traded 3 contracts
Day 3 I started with 13.7k and traded 5 contracts
Day 4 I started with 20.6k and traded 8 contracts and so on.
For a few days I used 5k -6k margin. Then I pump up the volume this week using 2.5k margin per contract.

At the beginning of each day I calculate the maximum order size I can go long or short on each trade based on account equity.

Today that calculation is 575,903 + 5,000 = 580,903 total marginable account equity.
580,903 divided by 2,500 = 232 contracts. That equals 4.2% margin.

That means I can go long or short 232 contracts on each trade, no more. I can not compound intraday profits. I can only compound profits that are actually credited to my account at midnight when the clearing process takes place. Each night the profits or losses are credited to or debited from my account. Then the next day I can use the profits from the previous day as margin to trade. If I lose then I have less money to use as margin.

So today I will probably trade 200 contracts at each trading signal. If I am long 200 and want to go short 200 I put in an order to sell 400.

200 lots as of the last trade in the SP500 index at the moment I am writing this sentence is worth $11,880,000. By the way, the CME max size per order is 1500 contracts. With enough equity in my account I could trade 1500 contracts with each signal. I would need a minimum of $3,750,000 in the account to do that. I don't know if I will do that though. I will see how it goes. Maybe I will try for 1000. I am playing it day by day. I do not know what is going to happen. I have had 15 days of consecutive profits. I do not know how long that will last. I am in discovery mode right now.

I will have a losing day or two or three at some point. If I lose 3 days in a row I will give back around 35% of my profits. In other words, easy come and very easy go. Please never forget that leverage is a double edge sword and can cut your mouse button finger off if you are not careful.

The maximum overnight position an account or affiliated accounts can hold is 100,000 eMini SP500 contracts. (1500 lots per order x 66 orders or 1000 lots per order x 100 orders or any combination to get to 100k lots) That position size triggers a reporting requirement to the exchange and the CFTC. So as you can see the potential is huge.

All you need is the money in your account and the balls to do it. Think Paul Rotter. He has huge balls. My balls are growing everyday. I had to go out and buy longer boxer shorts yesterday night. My balls are getting too big for my old boxers. :-) (that was my attempt to be funny, I hope you are not offended)

The whole point is that the market is big enough to handle very large volume and is very liquid at every tick.

Let's say you want to make $1 million profit per year. How do you get there?

First develop a very good trading method. Now let's say you do that and your method can generate an average of $1500 profit per contract per week. (5 day week) And let's say you trade 50 weeks per year.

1500 x 50 = 75,000 profit per contract per year.
1 million divided by 75,000 = 13.333

So all you have to do is trade around 15 contracts per trade and average 1500 per week and the 1 million+ is in the bank. Sounds easy. Well, that depends on you and your skills, knowledge, courage, discipline, motivation, confidence, and of course the size of your balls. :-)

Good luck,
Market Monk

Another Good Book on Technical Analysis

Stan Weinstein's Secrets For Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets

Good technical analysis books are timeless.

Weinstein's book was published in 1988.

W.D. Gann's books and newsletters were published from 1909 to 1954.

Read the books.  They will be helpful for position trading over days, weeks and months. And can be applied to day trading, but with testing first.

Market Monk

Russell 2000 Alert - Time & Price Support Zone Dead Ahead - UPDATED

This post is a before the fact heads up alert for all Russell 2000 traders.

Looks like the Russell 2000 is headed for a major time & price support zone with the weekly oscillator oversold at the same level it was at the August 13, 2004 low, which was the low of the year during 2004. This is an extremely high probability pattern forming that suggests a major low could be formed at 595-596 in the cash index in the next 4 trading days.

And this is why. The exact same pattern called the low of the year in this index in 2001, 2002 and 2004.  Please let that sink in.  The LOW of the YEAR 3 out of the last 4 years was called by this pattern. This is why I use technical analysis exclusively to generate my trading signals. We will know whether it will be 4 out of 5 probably by next Tuesday.

Anticipating a pattern developing makes trading it easier to plan and also zeros in one's focus at the right moment.  Keep your eyes on the Russell 2000 index over the next 4 trading days. (Thur 4/14, Fri 4/15, Mon 4/18 and Tues 4/19).

There are two ways I would trade this pattern. 

First, I would go long the Russell 2000 EFT ( symbol IWM ) at 118.80 MIT, or go long the futures on a print of 595.70 in the cash index. Use a stop loss order to limit risk based on your risk tolerance.

Second, let the index tell you it is holding support before going long. Watch the futures, cash and IWM in real time as it moves down to the support zone. (595-596 cash) Watch for the "pop" up off the support as proof it is holding and then get long. Always use a stop loss order to limit risk based on your risk tolerance.

Please take a look at the daily chart last Aug. 2004 and notice the market made two head fake moves near the measured move support the week before the low on Aug. 13.

Although my blog did not exist last August 13, 2004 I can assure you that I was all over the same pattern last year and cherry picked the low of the year in the Russell 2000, S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 using time and price pattern recognition analysis in each respective market.  They all formed different high probability patterns at the same.

See my first Russell 2000 Index Measured Move Projections post for additional details on the 2001 and 2002 pattern.

Click on chart to enlarge                    See what happened today in the 2nd chart

Russell_2000_daily_measured_move_apr_13_    Russell_2000_5_min_measured_move_apr_14_

Day 16 Trading Results

Total percentage gain since March 22, 2005 = 16,616.06%

Total profit for today = 254,900
Total profit for the month = 768,683
Total profit for entire campaign = 830,803

Total number of trades = 23
Total number of profits = 19
Total number of losses = 4

8 good profit trades today. 11 trades were 1-3 tick profits.

April 14, 2005

McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index

I have been using the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index since 1983. In my opinion they are the best breath momentum indicators in the business. If you are not familiar with them, I encourage you to get acquainted.

NYSE McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index (Ratio Adjusted)

NASDAQ Market McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index

McClellan Oscillator Defined

McClellan Summation Index Defined

Desktop Real Estate - The More You Have The Better You Can Trade

I believe owning a large piece of desktop real estate is essential to the implicit learning / pattern recognition learning process.

There are 3 monitor related links in the Traders Resources area at the left margin. Check them out.

I use 9 monitors set at 1600x1200 and use full screen black background charts in various time frames. All I display are charts and order entry software.


I do not watch CNBC. I scan Google Business News webpage during quiet pre NYSE session trading (5-7am) and during lunch.

My setup is similar to this setup, but I use eight 21.3" surrounding monitors and one 24.3" primary.

TigerVista Arena Elite

Tiger_vista_arena_elite_7_monitor_setup

 

Day 17 Trading Results

I realize most readers of this blog do not believe my trading results.

Please keep in mind I have been a full time trader since December 1994. I took my first trade as a rookie part time trader in 1983. After going full time I spent 18 months developing, testing in real time and then refining my method. I took 5,670 paper trades during that time. I have taken approximately 33,000 real money trades. I day traded the largest bull and bear market ($ value) in US history from 1995 - 2002. I have taken only one vacation for one week in the last 10.5 years.  I have seen days like today at least 300 times in the last 10.5 years, especially from 1999-2001. I have had plenty of ups and downs in my consistency taking trades in the past.  That is all behind me now and is ancient history.  I only live in the present moment now, and that is making my PMTC results possible.

With all that in mind I would like to say, today was a freaking huge day.  Big swings up and down all day. Clean high probability patterns. I made 41.97 net points per contract today. My average is 18-20 points.  I over doubled my average.

And now to the numbers.

Total percentage gain since March 22, 2005 = 30,466.16%
(The % gain number is very large now, maybe I shouldn't post it)

Total profit for today = 692,505
Total profit for the month = 1,461,188
Total profit for entire campaign = 1,523,308

Total number of trades = 19
Total number of profits = 17
Total number of losses = 2

Each point is worth $50
41.97 x 50 = 2,098.50 per contract profit
2098.50 x 330 = 692,505 total profit

Tomorrow I can afford to trade 600 lots. I do not know if I will. I have to sleep on it and relax.

A life long trading goal is to make $1 million profit in one day.  It could happen soon.  Another day like today trading 600 lots and its in the bank. But it has not happened yet.  Big Breath time.  I am in uncharted territory in my trading now.  I am excited and nervous at the same time.  I need at least 21 trading days under my belt trading big size before it feels normal and everyday.

April 15, 2005

Campaign Profit Goal

If you have read the Intro, you realize my campaign profit goal is to make 8 figure profits within 12 months of starting the campaign. Other traders have done it and are doing it right now.

That could mean 10 million or 50 million or 99 million.  What number do you think it is?  Of course, no one thinks it is realistic.  I am dreaming.  Right, you think. This guy is full of shit, he probably trades in his pajamas.

Hey, don't make fun of my pajamas. I have a really nice collection. :-)

Well, let's look at the numbers.

Yesterday I traded 330 contracts at each signal and reversed using a 660 lot order and made 692k.

Now, lets say I go to 500 contracts and stop there. Which I can do today.  I do not trade any more at each signal.  And I reverse on a 1000 lot order.

My average daily points profit per contract is 20 net of commission and fees.
Each point is worth $50
20 x 50 = $1000 profit per day per contract.
$1000 x 500 = 500,000 profit per day x 5 = 2.5 million per week
2.5 million x 50 weeks = 125,000,000 (low 9 figures)

Now, lets say I have some drawdowns along the way and over the next 50 weeks I average only 1/2 of my current average daily profit.  In other words, I make 50% less then I am doing right now.  That equals 62,500,000 profit in 50 weeks (mid 8 figures)

Now, lets say I really really have some drawdowns along the way and over the next 50 weeks I only average 35% of my current average daily profit. That equals 43,750,000. (mid 8 figures)

Now, lets say I really screw up and only average 20% of my current average daily profit.
$1000 x 20% = $200 profit per day per contract.
200 x 500 = 100,000 profit per day x 5 = 500,000 per week
500,000 x 50 weeks = 25,000,000 (low 8 figures)

OK. So unless I become a blind, deaf and dumb monkey with dyslexia and drunk on tequila I really believe I will make 8 figures.

If I perform over the next 50 weeks as well as I have the last 3.4 weeks, then I may on my way to low 9 figures.

And don't forget I could go to 1000 lots.  If I do that then double all the profit numbers we just went through.

Do you maybe believe just a little ittle weensy bit now?

Working a regular job? -- Want to learn to trade? -- This is what you do

Levi sent the following email:

I must say it is very exciting to look at your daily progress towards your goal.  I think it would be unbelievable to most, but I know a few dozen who have gotten extremely wealthy from doing exactly what you are doing.

Anyway, coming from the equity world it is hard for me to grasp the concept of basically 24-hour trading.  To get this right, I could come home from my regular job at 5PM and trade from then until I went to sleep at around 11PM or so?  So, I could learn to trade when I got home from work and then go full time when I feel that I am good enough?  Is this assumption correct?

Interactive Brokers takes orders for S&P futures almost 24 hours a day?  The charts that I can get through my charting software shows a regular trading day and then just has a gap or large candle at the beginning of the next day.

QCharts does not have this problem?

As you can see I am pretty awww struck by this possibility.  Please let me know if I am missing something.

P.S. Keep up the good work...you are at least inspiring one person...me.

Best,
Levi

----------

Market Monk's reply:

Levi,

When working a regular job that ends at 5 pm and wanting to learn to trade it is a better idea to learn from the European market.  If you live in the eastern time zone, the European stock markets open at 3 am. It all depends on where you live when considering which markets to train on.

Subscribe to eSignal real time charting software and get real time quotes for Eurex Europe and the CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange)

Watch and learn from the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 stock index which opens on the Eurex electronic exchange at 3 am. (NY time)

Get ready to go to work when you normally do.

When you get home then use the accelerated playback feature of eSignal software to replay the day in the eMini SP500. You should be able to get through the entire trading day in 2-3 hours or so.

Be sure to get enough sleep.  Try to be a sleep by 8 pm. That means get in bed by 7:45 pm. so you get 7 hours sleep. 8 pm - 3 am.

The eMini SP500 starts moving around 5-6 am usually, but sometimes it is very slow until 7- 8 am.  You will get more benefit from watching the DJ EuroStoxx 50 early in the morning.

Buy the traders affirmations CD and listen to it during the entire time you are watching the market, in the car and everywhere you can for as many hours as you can.  Do that for a few weeks.  Your brain will reprogram itself to think like a trader. Eventually listen to the CD in the background at low volume.  Watching and learning implicitly from the market in silence with NO interruptions is a good idea.  Turn your phone off.  Do not take calls when monking out.

All the best and God's speed my young market monk,  :-)

Market Monk

Day 18 Trading Results

The April/May 2005 issue of TRADER Monthly magazine cover story is about The 40 Greatest Trades of All Time.

#1 greatest trade was done by Paul Tudor Jones shorting the S&P 500 futures the Friday before and the morning of Black Monday October 19, 1987.  His hedge fund made $200 million in one day on that trade.  He also went hugely long T-Bonds.  He cleaned up.  He was already a legend before he did that trade at the age of 33.

The magazine also has a story about John Henry. He is one of the most successful futures fund managers in the world.  He owns the Boston Red Sox now.  He is worth over a billion dollars.  The article mentions Henry studying 100 years of market history when developing his method.  I used data starting from 1789 to develop my method.

Excerpt from the article:
Henry spent hundreds of hours at the Memphis Public Library building an analytic approach from the ground up.  W.D.Gann's writings spoke to the mechanization of markets, and how, Henry recalls, "hope and fear have a much larger impact on markets than analysis."...
Excerpt End

What is that? John Henry read W.D.Gann? Where did I read about him? Oh, that's right, in the introduction of this blog.

For all the skeptics out there, I am not blowing smoke up your ass with this blog.  There is pure knowledge posted and charted. There are also excellent recommended reading links listed in the Traders Resources area at the left margin and are worthy of further research.

By the way, for those who read my S&P 500 at critical Time & Price juncture post on Monday morning know I was expecting a big move in the market.  Well it has started. I was expecting a move higher, but I do not trade my expectations. I was right about a big move, but not the direction. As you may realize, I trade what I see in the present moment and not what I guess is going to happen in the future. So I came out smelling very very good this week.

Now to the numbers.

Total profit for today = 809,850
Total profit for the month = 2,271,038
Total profit for entire campaign = 2,333,158

Total number of trades = 27
Total number of profits = 23
Total number of losses = 4

April 16, 2005

Trading Results Explanation

To help those readers who do not want to read my entire blog better understand my trading results post I offer this explanation

Total profit for today = $ profit for today
Total profit for the month = $ profit for the month
Total profit for entire campaign = $ profit for the entire campaign

Total number of trades = for the day
Total number of profits = for the day
Total number of losses = for the day

Since the beginning of the campaign on March 22:
Total number of trades  = 268 (avg. 14.89 trades per day)
Total number of profitable trades  = 213
Total number of losing trades  = 55

79.48% of my trades are profitable
20.52% of my trades are losers

Record volume in eMini S&P; 500

On Friday April 15, 2005 the eMini S&P 500 had record volume of 1,425,789 contracts. The dollar value of the trading volume equals approximately $82,232,380,000.

I am a very small part of a very big pie. Yet believe it or not, my small part will yield 8 figure profits over time if I just keep doing what I am doing.

When I factor in the total volume of the eMini Nasdaq 100 futures, eMini Russell 2000 futures, SPY, QQQQ, all the ETF's, big and mid cap stocks, T-Bonds, T-Notes, Currencies, and commodities all I see is a vast and very very deep ocean of opportunity that is growing every year. Look at the total volume on the Nasdaq and NYSE today.

If you do not see unlimited opportunity for profit then you may need some Lasik eye surgery to clear up your vision.  Go see the eye doctor immediately. This is an emergency. :-)

All kidding aside. The point is to embrace the volatility and opportunity and stop limiting your believe system to the conventional wisdom.  The conventional wisdom is wrong! This week in the stock market was full of profit opportunity. If you lost money it is your fault. Take responsibility and change what you are doing.  Pick a market and LEARN HOW TO TRADE IT.  Read my entire blog.  Read all the books and essay's I recommend. Take the time to change your life forever.  Stop complaining about the market going down and stop worrying about Monday if you are currently long.

I am flat and out of the market.  I have no worries this beautiful Saturday morning. I really hope you can say the same.  If not, then it is time to do something about it.

I wonder if I am getting through to anyone out there in cyberspace.  Hello out there.  Is anyone there?

I sincerely wish you a happy, healthy and prosperous life.  If I can do it, you can do it. Please believe that and it will make a difference. Now make it happen for yourself.

Market Monk

April 17, 2005

ExxonMobil Technical Top Pattern Update

On March 25 I posted charts on a ExxonMobil Technical Top Pattern of significance. Please review and study for a few minutes the first post linked above. Then come back to this post and review and study the current charts below.  There is pure and healthy knowledge to be mined from these charts.  They say a picture is worth a thousand words, well I say a chart is worth millions in potential profits, if you know how to read them in real time.  Learning to read the tape (charts) is like learning a new language, it takes time to become fluent.

Let's see what has happened to XOM since the first post. The trading strategy I outline in the 60 min chart is for multi day / week position trading.

The charts speak for themselves, please study them closely.

By the way, I did not have my blog up at the time, but when XOM made a double top on December 27, 2004 that was a sell short signal. And when it traded at 52.01 on the break out above 52.00 on February 1, 2005 that was a massive buy the farm and leverage buy signal.  I know this is in hindsight, but please learn from this example.  It is classic textbook technical analysis.  I have seen this hundreds of times.  The key to making money is to know what to look for and when it happens and you see it - trade it.  Period.

Click on charts to enlarge

Xom_60_min_apr_15_05    Xom_daily_apr_15_05_1

April 18, 2005

Day 19 Trading Results

Today's net points profit per contract was in the top 5 best days I have ever had.
Total profit is a record for me and fulfills a trading career goal.

Total profit for today = 1,587,250
Total profit for the month = 3,858,288
Total profit for entire campaign = 3,920,408

Total number of trades = 23
Total number of profits = 19
Total number of losses = 4

Avg. points profit per trade = 3.5789
Avg. points loss per trade = .4375
Risk / Reward ratio = 8.81:1

April 19, 2005

Nasdaq 100 Cash Measured Move Cluster Example

The 100% measured move pattern is one of many I use to identify tops and bottoms and of course trading opportunities.  So far in this blog I have shown examples of the 100% measured move in the Russell 2000 Cash and S&P 500 Cash. Please review the previous posts as a refresher.  The pattern is common in many markets and is worth trading.

Today's charts show the pattern in the Nasdaq 100 Cash, which called the low yesterday by 3 cents.  It does not get any better than this. I have seen this happen hundreds of times.  The pattern is very powerful.

When you see this pattern in real time trade it. Period.  Always use a stop loss order to cut the loss short if the market does not hold the number(s).

The first chart is a Daily and the second is a 15 min. I use a tops down approach to pattern recognition. Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 60min, 15min and 5min.

Click on the charts to enlarge.

Nasdaq_100_cash_daily_measured_move_apr_    Nasdaq_100_cash_15_min_measured_move_apr   

Day 20 Trading Results

Total profit for today = 258,450
Total profit for the month = 4,116,738
Total profit for entire campaign = 4,178,858

Total number of trades = 21
Total number of profits = 14
Total number of losses = 7

I lowered my leverage significantly today and traded less contracts.  Today was more relaxed and slow compared to yesterday.  6 out of 7 losses were breakevens, I count them as losses after adding in the commission. The one real loss was 1 tick (.25 point). 12 out of 14 profitable trades were small winners. The other 2 profitable trades were 3.0 and 3.5 point winners.  Overall a tight range bound up day with many swings, but small ones.

ExxonMobil (XOM) Technical Bottom Pattern

Please understand I can only post charts and commentary in detail when the market is closed or is very slow and I have some time.  Monday was a very big day for me so I did not have time to put this post together yesterday.  But, believe me when I tell you I noticed the bottom pattern coming and if I was trading XOM I would have gone long at the open on Monday. The chart pattern examples posted in this blog can be used to identify trading ops in any actively traded asset.  It just so happens XOM is moving big now and the patterns are clean.

I have found the more volatile the price of an asset is, the better the technical price bar patterns are for trading.  Since ExxonMobil (XOM) is one of the biggest companies on the planet and its stock price has been very active the last few months I decided to use it as a case study for this blog.  Monday's low in the stock is another great example of how using trendlines can be very helpful in cherry picking bottoms.

The charts speak for themselves.  The oscillator is also oversold on the daily and 60 minute charts when the trendlines were tagged, adding some weight to a bottom forming at the midpoint of the trendlines. The pattern you will see on the charts is a classic textbook technical price bar pattern that creates high probability trading ops. I have seen it happen hundreds of times. As I have mentioned before, the key is knowing what to look for and when you see it, trade it. Period.

Also, I would like to mention that the average of two mathematical support lines at 55.7150 and 55.0262 (see daily chart) also added additional weight to the strong support at the midpoint of the trendlines.  (55.7150 + 55.0262) /2 = 55.37

I use technical analysis to identify trading ops with a very close tolerance for error.  In this case, the low was called within 3 cents.  It does not get any better than this. By the way,  I know of dozens of other patterns that turn virtually any market the same way.  In time you will find them, if you want to. The examples I offer in this blog are designed to wet your appetite.  This example is the epitome of what is meant by a low risk / high reward trading pattern that will turn the trend of any asset when the setup is just like this one.  The same applies to tops also, just invert the pattern.

Click on charts to enlarge.  1st is Daily / 2nd is 60 min / 3rd is 5 min

Xom_daily_apr_19_05    Xom_60_min_apr_19_05_1     Xom_5_min_apr_19_05

April 20, 2005

NYSE, Archipelago to Merge

Archipelago is open from 4 am - 8 pm (NY time). When this merger completes every stock on the NYSE will be trading 16 hours per day which will significantly increase trading opportunities. The volume is going to explode and so is volatility.  Imagine all the equity hedge funds worldwide trading with size for 16 hours per day on the new electronic NYSE. The Nasdaq will have no choice but to match the trading hours. This is great news for all equity traders, especially day traders.

Market Monk

NYSE, Archipelago to Merge

By Troy Wolverton
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
4/20/2005 5:08 PM EDT

In a concession to a rapidly modernizing world of stock trading, the New York Stock Exchange announced plans Wednesday to merge with electronic competitor Archipelago (AX:NYSE), ending its 212-year history as a private institution.

The two exchanges will form a publicly traded company that is 70% owned by the NYSE and 30% owned by Archipelago, the electronic exchange that was founded nine years ago and currently operates the ArcaEx trading network.

"I believe that the combination of Archipelago and the New York Stock Exchange will be the leading securities market in the U.S. and the world," NYSE chief John Thain said in a statement.

The merger, which is expected to be completed in 12 months, follows SEC approval earlier this month of new rules designed to ensure stock trades occur at their best available price. While the final version of the overhaul was seen as a compromise that spared the NYSE's open-auction specialist system from extinction, it effectively required the Big Board to adopt a much broader system of electronic trading or see its market share eroded by the electronic networks...

Day 21 Trading Results

Reaching 21 profitable days in a row is another goal I set for myself.  It is done.

Total profit for today = 1,323,625
Total profit for the month = 5,440,363
Total profit for entire campaign = 5,502,483

Total number of trades = 25
Total number of profits = 24
Total number of losses = 1

Prior to the open of the NYSE I traded 150 lots per trade. After the open I traded 500 per trade.

My method involves being in a position all day long.  I do not go flat. I reverse on every trade.  I have refined my skills and method over 10.5 years. I have been trading this way for many years.  Simply put, I pull as many points as I possibly can out of the market each trading day. I have figured out how to maximize my profit.  That is one of my primary objectives. When the market is volatile and moving I clean up.  90% of my trades are initially profitable 4-5 ticks. If the market does not follow through in my favor I take a 1-3 tick profit to a 0-3 tick loss and go the other way. Today I averaged 2.9479 gross points profit per trade. (11.7917 ticks)

How many day traders do you know maintain a position all day long, take as many trades as I do and average close to 3 points (12 ticks) profit per trade on a day like today?  I don't know any, but I am a monk.  I have only one trader friend.  As you may guess, I have paved a very lonely road pursuing my passion in total isolation for many years.  I don't get out much.  I live in a world consumed by price bars.  I have no children. I do have a girl friend though, and it is challenging sometimes for her to deal with my intensity.  But I am on a mission.  I am balls to the walls almost every trading day. I leave my workstation for only 2 minutes at a time.  Bathroom backs and food.  That is it.  I do stand up often to stretch and do some exercises, but my mind is always IN the market. I do not take phone calls.  I sometimes make phone calls during lunch time though.

I am not an ordinary happy go lucky no problems kind of guy.  My tolerance for error is zero.  I pushed myself to this level of trading over many years.  So please do not try to do what I am doing, unless you want to become a seriously intense person with no life, like me.  :-)

8: 50 pm:
After taking a break this evening and coming back to read this post I noticed I used a lot of I's in the text of the above post.  I this and I that and I am and I do. Writing and especially grammar is not one of my well developed skills.

On a personal note, what is sad and funny at the same time is my people skills and sensitivity to other peoples feelings (think girlfriend) have almost disappeared after so many years of monking out on the market.  I am paying the price now during my trial and error effort to learn how to be a good and understanding boyfriend.  It is much harder than trading. :-)

April 21, 2005

I am in a marathon. The sprint phase is over.

I am running in a marathon trading campaign that starting with a sprint for 21 days. There is a long way to go and I have no certainty I will make it to the finish line.  At any point I could lose 36% - 40% in a few days. This is a personal journey that I have made public.  The readers of this blog are like spectators on the side of the road watching the runners pass.  I am way out in front and virtually no one believes I started with everyone else at the same starting line.  Think of me as a world class 100 meter sprinter with the ability to sprint at full speed for a mile and then slow to a steady running pace and keep going for a full marathon.

The need for proof is becoming loud. If you need proof right now you are not going to get it. I have not finished the race. I owe you nothing.  Stop asking me for favors.  If you do not believe my results, then please do not ever read this blog again. Go back to your own belief system.  I am not asking you to change. Stay just the way you are, that is the safe thing to do. DO NOT READ THIS BLOG ANYMORE. No more emails.  Leave me alone. I am not asking you to do anything for me.  Stop asking me to do something for you.

My progress to date seems impossible to all the readers.  "No one can average over 20+ full points profit per day per contract for 21 days in a row." Well, believe whatever you want to believe.

I have finished the sprint phase of the campaign and am now getting into a slow running pace for the rest of the marathon.  If I finish the campaign in once piece financially I will provide audited proof, but not until then.

All the spectators of my PMTC have come to conclusions and made judgments about my progress to date.  Those judgments will not change for the rest of the campaign. They are set in stone for the most part.

I see no point in continuing with my public display of my PMTC marathon. You got to watch the sprint. The rest of the race will be run in private.

To those readers who have been inspired and have found a new energy and enthusiasm for the potential in their own trading, you have a long journey ahead of you, at least a year in my opinion.  Read the books I have recommended, put in the screen time to gain implicitly learned knowledge, develop your trading method and your trading skills and then start simulation trading it.  Do that until you are personally satisfied with the results, then start with a small amount of real money and go for it.

For the rest of you, believe whatever you want to believe. I certainly hope your belief system is getting you where you want to go right now. Spend all day gossiping in chat rooms instead of trading. And if you think you are really trading now, then I challenge you to get in a position within 5 minutes of the open and stay in a position all day reversing at every swing. Only then will you really be trading. Try it and see what happens.  You only have a few dollars to lose and much to learn. Who knows you may learn something about the true profit potential of the market you are trading. We all believe what we WANT to believe.  Listen to the affirmations CD and you will know what I believe.

All the best to everyone and God's speed in your personal trader's journey...

Market Monk

It Can't Really Be This Simple..Can It? By Bo Yoder

I received an email from Bo Yoder today.  He sent an excerpt from his book "Mastering Futures Trading" By Bo Yoder,  McGraw Hill 2004.  I like it so I asked him for permission to post it here. He granted me permission.

I have not read Mr. Yoder's book so I can not recommend it, but I think I will get it and read it to see what Bo has to say.

Thank you Bo for the excerpt.

It Can't Really Be This Simple..Can It?
Bo Yoder's website 5 minute investor.com

It Can't Really Be This Simple..Can It?

Take the obvious, add a cupful of brains, a generous pinch of imagination, a bucketful of courage and daring, stir well and bring to a boil.
-Bernard Baruch

For several years now I have worked with traders, trying to help them achieve their trading goals.  Many of them come to me frustrated, angry and cynical.  They see me present my trading tools, and the patterns and indicators I use.  They are usually aghast at how simple my style is, and always suspect I'm holding out on them.  They are convinced that there is some secret squiggly green line on my personal charts that will foretell the future.   If only they could pry this secret from me, all their problems would vanish!

I have discovered that there is a very consistent learning cycle that just about every trader goes through as they go from losing to winning.  Perhaps by identifying the stages, I can help some of you shave a few months or years off your learning curve.  It has been amazing for me to see so many traders going through the exact same struggles as they move from one stage to the next. We all start out in the "mystification" stage.  We understand little about market structure, the charts are a meaningless mish-mash of  lines and squiggles.  The ability for anybody to look into that mess and divine the future seems a manifestation of the blackest magic.  You begin to read trading books, watch the markets, attend some seminars, and begin to accumulate some knowledge about the markets.  Your chart reading ability grows, and you begin to see some of the patterns from your books as you scan.

You now enter the "hot pot" phase.  You scan the markets, and start noticing one particular setup that seems to be working well.  You start to focus of finding this one pattern, and bing, bang, boom, then next few instances all set up and run!  "OK, this is it... the last 5 trades I saw with this patterns all made big money, I'm taking the next one!"  You step up to the plate and BOOM...Before you can blink your stop is hit.  This cycle repeats itself again and again.  What's happening is that you are waiting to see "perfection" in the pattern before taking a trade.  The problem is that perfection only shows in a win cycle.  And so just as the win cycles finishes it's run, your jumping into the market just in time to eat the next losing streak!  This cycle of observed pleasure and experienced pain puts your emotions and mental objectivity into a blender.  It's the same process as a child who touches a hot pot on the stove top and gets burned.  After getting hurt once or twice they become afraid of the pot, not understanding that it is the heat from the stove that makes the pot painful.

After studying so hard, putting so much effort into your trading only to have this universal failure in the patterns only when you take them will take you into the "cynical skepticism" stage.  This is where the majority of beginners get stuck and wash out.  They feel betrayed by the market, the books and materials they tried to learn from, and the folks who's opinions they followed.  All these inputs claim their ideas lead to profitability, yet every time a cynical skeptic takes a trade it's a loser!  What makes these losses all the more maddening is that all the trade setups the cynical trader observed before taking a trade worked perfectly!  Since one of the most painful human experiences is to fail when success looks easy, this embarrassment is diverted by the cynic into anger.  Anger at the evil market manipulators who gunned for the stops, anger at the teachers who taught the tactics that are causing them so much pain.  All these people MUST be charlatans, fakirs who are exploiting their clients in a way that would make P.T Barnum proud!  This blame game may be satisfying to the ego, but to engage in this whining removes any chance for your success!  Since there are these external forces working against you, then why would you bother to analyze your trading to look for ways to improve?  This excuse driven mind set is a dead end viewpoint, and one that takes many promising traders out of the game.

Those that persevere move into the "squiggle trader" phase.  They figure that there is some secret weapon, some "holy grail" that would help them avoid these bad trades.  The reason they have been losing is simply ignorance.  Once they find "IT" their accounts will explode and they will achieve every goal and dream they have for their trading.  They begin an obsessive study of trading methods.  They buy every book, every course that mentions some pattern or indicator that is new to them.  They are trying desperately to buy success.  This is the same process as the golfer who spend $600 on a new driver so they can hit their ball 10 yards further into the woods!  These patterns and indicators are all useful tools, but all by themselves cannot make a trader profitable.  As you begin to stack indicator after indicator on your charts you begin to suffer paralysis by over analysis. There are SO MANY inputs to consider, you just can't make a decision.  Or ever more likely, once in a position you mind will seek out those indicators that agree with the direction of the trade.  This behavior is a hallmark of scared money.  Without a clear acceptance of the risk assumed, these traders dart around in search of anything or anybody who can tell them their trade is a good one.  This serves two destructive purposes...one, it transfers away the responsibility for the trade, and two it will shake you out of trades as your indicators begin to conflict.  The MACD says buy, the stochastic says sell, and ADX says the market is trending yet the OBV is indicating an overbought situation.  The result of this mess is a gibbering trader who's brains have been reduced to a quivering puddle by the end of the trading day.

Too much information!  Which indicators do you trust?  What if they are in conflict as a pattern appears? (This happens CONSTANTLY.)

This squiggle trader phase (although unprofitable) is an important step in a traders development.  It teaches them about what other traders are doing, and what techniques and tactics are most popular.  This information and experience will prove invaluable later on as the trader begins to mature and starts to trade traps and other panic inducer patterns.  This exploratory phase is also important because it is at this point where a trader begins to find out who they are, what trading styles suit their psyche the best, and which tactics they should focus on going forward.

The squiggle trader phase is another morass from which many traders never break free.  They spend the rest of their lives as traders searching for THE ANSWER, and even though some may be profitable while they search, they only realize a fraction of their potential as traders.  At this point those who have what it takes move to a new level of personal responsibility.  They take all the knowledge they have accumulated up to this point, and begin to experiment on their own.  They try to adapt well known and taught patterns to their own style.  They are comfortable with their analysis skills, and really begin to specialize and focus on the strategies that fit them the best.  Much of the growth during this phase is focused inwardly, as the trader explores the mental and emotional side of their trading skill set.  I call this last step the "inward bound" phase.  It is in this final stage that the trader will discover the true holy grails of trading..risk management, the payout/payback cycle, and the power of a trading plan!  As an inwardly bound trader, you begin to take total responsibility for your trades.  You understand that you can control your risk in the markets, so when you put on a trade you have accepted fully the possibility for loss.  You hold your stops, you stick to your trading plan, you manage your trades with objective consistency.  The impulsive emotional trades that once caused so much damage are now gone, and true trading errors have been limited to one or two a month.  You begin to have these lightbulb experiences as you move to new levels of market understanding that take your profitability up a few notches.  All these advances are not fundamental changes in technique, but rather tweaks that help you enhance your edge as a trader.

The final stage in a traders learning curve is mastery.  Trading becomes second nature for you.  Your trading style is such an ingrained part of you, so it doesn't take a conscious effort anymore to follow your rules.  You can trade effectively when there are distractions that would have been deadly even just a year or two before. You can make money in the morning when your not quite awake yet, when people are in your office watching, with  music in the background, when you have a cold, a hangover,  or while talking on the phone...  When you pass into this final phase of your career, trading itself becomes a "thoughtless" endeavor.  Your trade planning and research are what take your time and focus, they become your "scrimmages" with the market. Athletes use this same process, as they expend great effort planning their strategies and practicing their skills so that the instincts are there to make the big play instantly without thinking. This level of trading skill takes time to develop, and it is in this time that your intuitive side begins to show itself.  You are not able to explain these feelings, but from time to time you will get a very strong sense the market is about to move.  These gut trades are infrequent, but can be extremely profitable. As you begin to get to this level start experimenting with these opinions, taking them with small size, and begin to build trust in your new found instincts.

How do I know so much about all these phases of trader advancement?  I have lived through all of them.  All these opinions, and theories about trader development have come from personal experience.  During this journey I experienced intense pain, frustration, dejection, depression, misery and rejection.  It seems that every giant step forward I took was preceded by an intense emotional crisis.  This manic depressive cycle from absolute hero to complete zero is a little discussed fact of trading life.  Learning to manage these cycles was critical for me if I wanted to make this my career. You must learn to accept the cyclicality of trading, and not personalize or internalize the pain associated with the loss clusters that are a normal aspect of any trading method.  To do so will lead to many mental and physical difficulties as the stress you are living with consume you.  I stumbled through the learning curve by myself, over the course of a year learning many of my lessons the hard way.  After that first year of hellish frustration I began to interact with other traders.  As we compared notes I became aware that I was NOT alone.  They were going through the same difficulties, and we shared many of the same frustrations.  We had all underestimated the difficulty and complexity of the business of speculation!  The reason the potential for great profits exist in trading is because this is such a difficult skill to master.  If it were easy, everybody would trade profitably, and the potential payout would fall dramatically.  So be thankful a small elite takes home the bulk of the gains available from the markets!  Become one of this exclusive club and the market will reward you very richly.

--Bo Yoder

TRADER Monthly Free Subscription for Professionals

I got this email today from Trader Monthly.  If you are a professional you qualify for a free subscription.  I like the magazine. Check it out.

Market Monk

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SFO - Stocks Futures & Options Journal

Sfo_home_logo
SFO Link

For everyone interested in trading FX cash markets please read the following linked article on the significant advantages to trading the CME Euro FX futures contract.

Ready For The Next Big Thing?  CME Currency Futures Are Back

by: David Silverman

Free registration is required.  The SFO Journal has very good articles for beginners and novice traders.  It is worth reading in my opinion.

Market Monk

Memorable Quotes to Live By

Knowledge is Power.  -- W.D.Gann

Knowledge is a wide river and there's many ways to cross it. It is necessary to choose respected mentors, not to parrot them but to absorb what you can and use what they teach as stepping stones.-- Lisa Haynes

Age is only a number, a cipher for the records. A man can't retire his experience. He must use it. Experience achieves more with less energy and time.  -- Bernard Baruch

True insight does not issue from specialized knowledge, from membership in coteries, from doctrines or dogmas. It comes from the preconscious intuitions of one's whole being, from one's own code. -- Unknown

Why do you look at me? Look at your own self. Why do you listen to me? Listen to your own self. Why do you believe in what I say? Do not believe in me or any other teacher, rather trust in your own inner voice. This is your guide, this is your teacher. Your teacher is within not without. Know yourself, not me!  -- Peace pilgrim

Once you realize that the road is the goal and that you are always on the road, not to reach a goal, but to enjoy its beauty and its wisdom, life ceases to be a task and becomes natural and simple, in itself an ecstasy.  -- Sri Nisargadatta Maharaj

The best day of your life is the one on which you decide your life is your own. No apologies or excuses. No one to lean on, rely on, or blame. The gift is yours - it is an amazing journey - and you alone are responsible for the quality of it. This is the day your life really begins. -- Unknown

We don't see things as they are, we see them as we are. -- Anais Nin

Whatever you can do, or dream you can, begin it. Boldness has genius, power, and magic in it. -- Goethe

Remember, there are no mistakes, only lessons. Love yourself, trust your choices, and everything is possible. -- Cherie Carter-Scott

Dwelling on past mistakes is a waste of time. If the Ego needs to rectify a misdeed, have it do something that creates good in the present, this will certainly spawn good will for the future and create balance in your life. -- Beth Johnson

Self-knowledge cannot be gathered through anybody, through any book, through any confession, psychology, or psycho-analyst. It has to be found by yourself, because it is your life. -- J. Krishnamurti

When the veil of judgment is dropped, when the blanket of fear is laid down, when the armor of the ego is shed, one's true nature comes forth and enlightenment follows. -- Beth Johnson

Things of the past are already long gone, and things to be, distant beyond imagining. The Tao is just this moment, these words... plum blossoms fallen, gardenia just opening. -- Ch'ing Kung

With dependency gone there is no fear of loss anymore. Life flows with ease. -- Eckhart Tolle

Good friends and excellent teachers - Stick close to them! Wealth and power are fleeting dreams but wise words perfume the world for ages. -- Ryokan

Wisdom and knowledge are not the same thing. The intellect can never lead one to a complete insight. One has to use one's entire being to come into contact with the truth. -- Huineng

To attain knowledge, add things every day. To attain wisdom, remove things every day. -- Tao te ching

If you love what you do, you'll never work another day in your life. -- Nashti

The most important thing I have learned is trust. Trust in the knowledge that I do have the ability to make choices and trust that living in the moment will take me through my decision cycle quite naturally. -- Lynda Standley Richardson

 

S&P; 500 Bull Market Trading Signals July 2002 - Apr. 2005

The commentary in the chart covers the subject of this post.  Study this chart closely, it is full of pure and timeless knowledge.

By the way, if you have ever seen the Primary 50% retracement from the June 1932 low written about anywhere please let me know. Please see chart for details. The point is the knowledge I have written about in this blog is extremely powerful, yet very few people publish the specifics.  I would also like to add that I traded every signal on the chart.

Market Monk

Click on chart to enlarge

Sp_500_weekly_long_term_trading_signals_

April 22, 2005

Russell 2000 Major Trendline Signals

This post is another example of how trendlines can be very useful in trading.

1st Chart - Russell 2000 Weekly
2nd Chart - Russell 2000 Daily
3rd Chart - Russell 2000 180 Minute
4th Chart - Russell 2000 5 Minute

Notice the latest trend change of the Russell on Monday April 18, 2005. The low was called by a trendline and a Gann 25% number cluster within 18 cents.

Click on charts to enlarge

Russell_2000_weekly_trendline_signals_ap    Russell_2000_daily_trendline_signals_apr    Russell_2000_180_min_trendline_signals_a   Russell_2000_5_min_trendline_signals_apr

S&P; 500 Bear Market Signals from Mar. 2000 - Oct. 2002

Click on chart to enlarge
Sp_500_weekly_bear_market_trading_signal

Dow Jones Industrial Avg. Long Term Time & Price Bottom Example

The power of long term time and price symmetry analysis is evident in all of the daily and weekly charts posted to this blog.  This one is no exception.  Applied in real time this knowledge can make position trading very profitable. You must know the prices and dates of ALL important tops and bottoms from the first day of trading for the asset you are analyzing. In this case, The Dow Jones Industrial Average was created in 1885.

Where do you get the data to do this type of analysis?  Go to The Chart Store and you will find it there.

Click on chart to enlarge
Dow_jones_indu_weekly_long_term_primary_   

Day 22 Trading Results

Total profit for today = 1,146,100
Total profit for the month = 6,586,463
Total profit for entire campaign = 6,648,583

Total number of trades = 28
Total number of profits = 21
Total number of losses = 7

Day 23 Trading Results

Total profit for today = 1,757,250
Total profit for the month = 8,343,713
Total profit for entire campaign = 8,405,833

Total number of trades = 21
Total number of profits = 18
Total number of losses = 3

This is my last trading results update.

I would like to express my sincere appreciation to everyone who has been inspired and motivated by my PMTC.  That is one of the reasons I decided to post my progress in public. I hope a few traders will find a new level of energy to seriously pursue reaching for a higher level of success no matter how long it takes.  My journey has not been easy.  Over the years it has been riddled with all the typical stuff traders go through, yet I persevered and reached the higher level I aspired to obtain.  I am there now and the view is beautiful.  The sunsets seem brighter and more colorful.

I am not a master of the universe as some Wall Street traders egotistically see themselves.  I am a humble monk walking a lonely path down a road that I paved by hand.  My gratitude is bountiful at this moment.

Thank you divine omniscient presence of the universe for making the present moment so very fulfilling in all ways.

Sincerely,
Market Monk

 

April 23, 2005

IBM Weekly Trading Signals 1999 - 2005

Click on chart to enlarge
Ibm_weekly_trading_signals_apr_2005

Google Daily Chart with Price Projections

Even though Google's stock has not traded very long and has only a few daily swings to trade, Fibonacci is alive and well in the price patterns.  There are two examples of buying ops at Fib numbers and I have included price projections on the chart. There are also several Gann Swing signals.  I will leave those for you to find.

Click on the chart to enlarge
Google_daily_apr_22_2005

GM Weekly Chart Bear Market Analysis

Click on chart to enlarge
Gm_weekly_bear_mkt_analysis_apr_22_2005 

April 27, 2005

Economic Calendar of Market Moving Reports

Being aware of market moving economic reports is part of my risk management strategy.  I usually go flat the market a few minutes before major reports. Market liquidity dries up in front of the most important reports and it is prudent to avoid dealing with erratic moves in the market. The market gets back to normal trading usually within 5 - 15 minutes after a report is released.

With that in mind I use the following links to keep abreast of the reports:

Briefing.com Economic Calendar

EconoDay 2005 U.S. Economic Events & Analysis

April 28, 2005

Microsoft Weekly Chart with 5 bottoms pattern

Microsoft stock price bottomed on December 21, 2000 (first day of winter), 12 months (less 9 days) from its all time high on December 30, 1999. Since that bottom (No.1 on the weekly chart) a large consolidation pattern has developed over the last 40 months that has very bullish implications.

The very bullish part of the pattern are the four higher bottoms labeled 2,3,4 and 5? on the weekly chart. If the stock is able to stay above the No. 4 bottom at 21.94 and then close on a weekly basis above 27.60 a massive rally is likely to start that will carry the stock price much higher.

There is a good probability the low is in at point No. 5?. Notice the weekly oscillator is oversold and the stock hit a three number Gann / Fib cluster intersecting with a trendline and held the support zone. I am giving a high probability weighting that the low is in, it just needs to be confirmed, hence the ? at bottom No.5.

Microsoft's very high capitalization weighting and the fact that it is in the S&P 500 index, Dow Jones Industrial Average Index and the Nasdaq 100 index strongly suggests that if it breaks out to the upside above 27.60 it will carry the overall market higher with it.

1st chart = Weekly
2nd chart = Daily
3rd chart = Monthly
4th chart = Monthly Logarithmic

Click on the chart to enlarge.
Msft_weekly_5_bottom_pattern_apr_29_2005     Msft_daily_5_bottom_pattern_apr_28_2005 Msft_monthly_from_1986_to_apr_27_2005_1    Msft_monthly_log_from_1986_to_apr_27_200

ExxonMobil (XOM) Technical Top Pattern Update

Exxon Mobil continues to display classic textbook technical price patterns. Here is the latest sell signal in Exxon Mobil.  Please understand that I am using XOM as a case study to help those that are interested learn from the examples offered by the stock.  I am purposely not posting the examples in real time so they are not construed as investment advice.  This post and all the other XOM posts are designed to clarify my approach to using technical analysis.

Click on the chart to enlarge.
Xom_60_min_apr_28_05

April 29, 2005

Trading Results depend on market volatility

The trading results created by my method during the first 23 trading days (31 calendar days) of the PMTC were totally dependent on big price volatility.

The only reason the results were so large is simply because I started the campaign right as the market started moving big.  If I started the campaign during a slow period the results would have been 55% - 61.8% less.

So please remember that day trading methods like mine completely rely on the market continually moving in large swings.  Once the market slows down and gets quiet this summer so will my results.

By the way, I had another big week trading the large up and down swings. I hope the volatility continues for another month before the dog days of summer are upon us.

Good trading and all the best,
Market Monk

The Super Power of Compounding when using leverage

Most people have heard the saying, "The magic of compounding".  And it is true.  Compounding interest and compounding profits significantly increase total return on equity over a given time period.

When leverage is added to the mix, "magic" becomes "super power".

I will provide two examples to show the super power of compounding with leverage vs. no leverage at different daily profit levels over a 10 day trading campaign using the eMini S&P 500 futures contract. The profit levels are $500, $1,000 and $1,500 profit per day per contract.

Example 1:
No leverage / No compounding
Currently the eMini S&P 500 futures contract is worth $57,500 (price of index x 50 -- (1150.00 x $50)).
Start with $57,500 account equity balance.
Trade 1 contract each day.

$500 profit per day per contract after 10 days = $5,000 total profit (8.696%)
$1,000 profit per day per contract after 10 days = $10,000 total profit (17.391%)
$1,500 profit per day per contract after 10 days = $15,000 total profit (26.087%)

Example 2:
Leverage / Compounding
Start with $5k account equity balance.
Use $2.5k day trade margin per contract.
Compound profits by adding 1 contract at the beginning of each new trading day for each $2.5k in profits made the previous day.

$500 profit per day per contract after 10 days = $21,000 total profit (420.0%)
$1,000 profit per day per contract after 10 days = $108,000 total profit (2,160%)
$1,500 profit per day per contract after 10 days = $519,000 total profit (10,380%)

Disclaimer Time:
Warning!

If you are not trading a method that can profit everyday you will not be able to duplicate the above hypothetical results. And if you do not have a trading method and you do not know how to trade you WILL LOSE ALL YOUR MONEY.

Do not attempt to do this at home without the supervision of a parental guardian.  :-)

April 30, 2005

Microsoft Daily Chart with 5 bottoms pattern (UPDATE)

Please see previous Microsoft post for context and clarity.

Click on chart to enlarge
Msft_daily_5_bottom_pattern_apr_29_2005_1

May 02, 2005

Trading size calculation

I received an email regarding the "dilemma" surrounding how many contracts or shares to trade. The following was my reply. I hope this is helpful to readers with the same "dilemma".

Calculate the average $ amount of your losses, including commission.

That number should equal no more than 2% of your total account equity.

Example using eMini SP500 futures contract:
average loss is 6 ticks or $75 + commission (75 + 4 = 79)
79 divided by .02 = 3,950 (round up to 4k)
trade one contract for every $4,000 in your account.

You will have to lose the equivalent of 50 times in a row to lose all your equity.  That should not happen if you have a good method and are using tight money management.

May 04, 2005

A W.D. Gann Treasure Discovered... by Robert Krausz (late Market Wizard)

A reader of this blog emailed me looking for comments on the following book.  Since I have not read it I did not have any comments, but I decided to buy it, which I did this morning.

A W.D. Gann Treasure Discovered: Simple Trading Plans for Stocks & Commodities by the late Robert Krausz of "New Market Wizard" fame and the creator of Fibonacci Trader Software.

Mr. Krausz's story is a common one among traders.  I encourage you to read his story in The New Market Wizards  by Jack D. Schwager

Good Trading,
Market Monk

GM Update - Another classic case study in Gann Analysis

This post updates General Motors' classic technical bottom pattern posted via a weekly chart on April 23.  I have included a short Reuters wire report on the news that sent GM up today.  Classic setup. Sentiment was as negative as it gets right at the bottom.  Classic, Classic, Classic.

------------------------------

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rallied on Wednesday, lifted by a 16 percent surge in General Motors Corp. after billionaire Kirk Kerkorian offered to more than double his stake in the struggling automaker. Shares of General Motors jumped $4.45 to $32.22 after Kerkorian offered to raise his stake to 8.8 percent. The world's biggest automaker was also helped by an upgrade by Merrill Lynch to "neutral" from "sell."


"GM is the biggest news today," said Todd Clark, head of listed trading at Wells Fargo Securities. "GM stock was doing nothing but going down and this bid by Kerkorian is pretty impressive and actually suggests some underlying value in some of these older factory stocks that people had given up for dead."

-----------------------------

I have included the original Weekly chart posted on April 23 and then a daily and 15 minute showing a Gann Swing buy signal and today's action.

Click on charts to enlarge
Gm_weekly_bear_mkt_analysis_apr_22_2005_1    Gm_daily_may_5_2005    Gm_15_minute_may_5_2005    

80% Odds the Low for the Year is Behind Us

Based on the current weekly price bar patterns, the McClellan Oscillator and Summation Index and the "5" year decennial cycle pattern I put the probability at 80% the low for the year has been seen and the correction down is complete.

The primary up trend has resumed and it will carry the market much higher. A thrust in the NYSE and Nasdaq McClellan Oscillators above 50 is the last technical confirmation I am looking for.

The next major cycle turn date is July 13.

Click on charts to enlarge
Sp500_weekly_may_4_2005    Djia_weekly_may_4_2005    Nasdaq_comp_weekly_may_4_2005    Nasdaq_100_weekly_may_4_2005    Russell_2000_weekly_may_4_2005        Nyse_mcclellan_osc_and_sum_index_may_4_2    Nasdaq_mcclellan_osc_and_sum_index_may_4

May 05, 2005

Starbucks Bull Market Case Study

I did not include much commentary on the chart.  It speaks for itself.

Click on the chart to enlarge.
Starbucks_weekly_may_5_2005

May 13, 2005

40% Odds the Low for the Year is Behind Us

Please read the post entitled 80% Odds the Low for the Year is Behind Us for context.

The major US market indexes had an opportunity to confirm a new uptrend yesterday by following through to the upside on Wednesday's rally and getting the McClellan Oscillator above 50.  They did not.

Based on Thursday's weak close it looks like the low of the year is going to be tested.  After important lows the US stock market indexes often have a very deep retracement to test the lows.  We will know in a few days whether the current low of the year will hold.

Take a look at the current McClellan Oscillator readings for the NYSE and Nasdaq.

NYSE McClellan Oscillator (Ratio Adjusted) - Notice the Osc got to 50 and reversed down after a relatively short rally in the NYSE Comp index.

NASDAQ Market McClellan Oscillator - Notice the Osc got to a little above 40 and reversed down after a relatively short rally in the NASDAQ Comp index.

12:36 pm Intraday Update on Major US Stock Market Indexes

Looks like I was faked out by the weak close yesterday in the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials.  The Nasdaq - 100 index has made new recovery highs from the low of the year on April 29, 2005 with the help of a positive market reaction to Dell's earnings. What is interesting is the market has ignored several positive economic reports this week, but pays attention to Dell.  Go figure.  I don't figure it, that's why I use technical analysis.

A strong close today and following through next week and the McClellan Osc will probably give the confirmation I have been looking for.

Double Head Fake Day on Friday the 13

Today was very interesting and speaks directly to the advantage of focusing on short term trends and reversing one's position on every trade.

The weak close yesterday in the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials lead me to believe the trend had turned down and would be down today. Then Dell gaps up at the open, which wasn't surprising, but then goes up strong after the opening, taking the Nasdaq - 100 index to new highs for the week and the month late this morning making a lunch time high for the day. That suggested the market wanted to go higher after a lunch time pull back.  Then about 2 hours later the S&P 500 is making new lows for the week. To top the day off the S&P 500 rallies strong into the close after the afternoon low. I have not seen a day like this in a long time. The daily charts of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq -100 look completely different. The S&P 500 chart looks like it is going lower and the Nasdaq -100 chart looks like it is going higher.  Great stuff and confusing to the professional and casual observer alike.

I laugh and really enjoy days like this.  My method performed extremely well despite the fact my expectations were fooled by the the double head fake of the market. The fact I trade my method in the present moment and not my expectations makes daily profitability possible.

I will post some charts over the weekend.

Enjoy and have a great weekend,

Market Monk

May 16, 2005

Bifurcated US stock market indexes

A reader of the blog sent me an interesting .pdf report published by sentimenTrader on May 14, 2005.  The report discusses the bifurcated US stock market indexes. I asked for permission to publish the report and got permission to post a section of it.

The table in the image below shows the tendency of the market when it has bifurcated in the past.  History suggests the market will resolve this issue to the upside.

Check out the daily chart of the NYSE Composite Index below and notice it made new lows for the year last Friday May 13, 2005.  Then take a look at a daily chart of the Nasdaq - 100 index using your own source and notice it made new recovery highs last Friday since making its respective low of the year on April 29th. You will see what I am talking about.

Click on image to enlarge
Bifurcated_sp500_and_ndx_from_sentiment_   Nyse_composite_daily_may_15_2005_2

80% Odds the Low for the Year is Behind Us

I do not know why I started this "% odds the Low of the Year is Behind Us" posts.  Forecasting trading markets is a fun academic exercise, but has nothing to do with my day trading methodology.  I do not even know if anyone cares what I think and frankly it does not matter.  With that in mind, I think the US stock market is back in bullish mode.  The indexes still need to generate a multi week Gann swing buy signal and generate a thrust move over 50 in the McClellan oscillator to suggest that there is a high probability the low of the year is behind us.

That's all for now.

Market Monk

May 19, 2005

Yahoo Weekly Chart Bull and Bear Market Analysis

The following Yahoo weekly charts below show my bull market analysis from the IPO to the bull market high and my bear market analysis from the all time high to the bear market low. I created the charts as a favor for an investor group with members worldwide who are very interested in W.D. Gann trading techniques.  The first chart displays tradeable swing pattern buy signals and change in trend pattern buy signals that developed during Yahoo's move from it's all time low of 0.64 to the all time high of 125.03.  The second chart displays the bear market rallies highs at Gann and Fib numbers.  Both charts include Gann based time counts that were very helpful in recognizing several important tops and bottoms.  I could show more patterns, but I do not have the time.

Click on the charts to enlarge

Yahoo_weekly_chart_bull_market_analysis_   Yahoo_weekly_chart_bear_market_analysis

US stock market thrust off the May 13 low looks like the real deal

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator (Ratio Adjusted) and the NASDAQ McClellan Oscillator have each powered higher.  The Nasdaq Composite Index is displaying significant relative strength over of the NYSE Composite Index.  The current 4 1/2 day rally is exactly what happens at the beginning of a major uptrend.

By the way,  take a look at the current daily chart of Microsoft (MSFT).  The 5 bottoms pattern chart I post to the blog recently had its first major confirmation today.  MSFT is technically posed to have a powerful rally that will surprise everyone except myself and readers of this blog. :-)

Also notice the deep retracement the Dow Industrial index, Dow Transport Index, S&P 500 Index and the Russell 2000 Index had to test their respective April lows.  The NYSE Composite move to new lows last Friday May 13 was a classic head fake and very similar to what happened last year when the Dow Industrials went to new lows on the year on October 25, 2004.  In both cases each index hit their respective declining bottoms trendline and reversed.  See previous posts for details.

A word of caution here.  All the US stock market indexes are at major technical resistance levels right now.  I am looking for a pull back here that is known as the "pause that refreshes".

The "5th" year of the decennial cycle is very powerful and may have gone into overdrive this week.  Only time will tell where we end up in the US stock market this December.  History suggests a strong rally is a high probability expectation.  See my decennial cycle posts for more data.

Click on the charts to enlarge.
Sp500_daily_may_19_2005    Djia_daily_may_19_2005    Nyse_comp_daily_may_19_2005    Nasdaq_comp_daily_may_19_2005    Russell_2000_daily_may_19_2005   Djta_daily_may_19_2005   Msftdaily_may_19_2005_1

May 20, 2005

Long Term S&P; 500 Charts with Gann and Fibonacci ratios (1932 - 2002)

Click on chart to enlarge.

Sp_500_long_term_hand_made_line_chart_ma_1   Sp_500_weekly_may_23_2005

S&P; 500 Index Very Long Term Price Projections

Click on the chart to enlarge.

Sp_500_long_term_price_projections_may_2_3

May 22, 2005

eBay Weekly Chart

Click on chart to enlarge.
Ebay_weekly_may_20_2005

May 23, 2005

Chicago Mercantile Exchange A (CME) Weekly

Click on the chart to enlarge.
Cme_weekly_may_22_2005

May 24, 2005

Apple Computer (AAPL)

Click on charts to enlarge.
Apple_computer_monthly_may_23_2005    Apple_computer_daily_may_23_2005    Apple_computer_180_min_may_23_2005

May 26, 2005

Market Forecasting vs. Real Trading

Market forecasting has NOTHING to do with real trading.

That is the point of this blog -- focusing on the present moment when trading is the edge, not forecasting.

Market forecasting and predicting is an academic exercise and an intellectual challenge, not a trading strategy.  Please understand this point.

Please read "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas.

99% of all people believe they must know where the market is going and why it is going there in order to make trading profits.  That is totally incorrect and the primary reason why they consistently lose money.

The "5" year of the decade has a very strong tendency to close higher than the previous year.  OK.  That is true and, as a consequence, that is what I expect to happen this year.  This year should be an "up" year based on the cycles.  So what.  It is only a guess using history as a guide.  That is all forecasting and predicting is  ---  an educated guess.  No one really knows what is going to happen and it doesn't matter.

I trade on average 20x every day.  10x long and 10x short on average.  Why do I trade so many times per day?  Because I do not know exactly where the market is going to go next.  On strong trend days I usually lose a little or break even on the trades against the trend and make good profits on the trades with the trend. On days with big swings in both directions I clean up.  I make twice as much money on big swing days than on strong trend days. The point is I do not know where the market is going to go the next hour and no one else does.  Yet, I have made an overall profit everyday of the trading campaign to date.  How can that be?  I have not had an overall loss for even one day and I admit I do not know where the market is going.

When you truly understand what I am saying then, and only then, has your trading career really started. Until then you are playing the guessing game like everyone else.  I do not play that game and I make an overall profit everyday. Drawdowns do not exist for me.

Please read this entire blog, study the charts and read all the books and articles I recommend. Develop a trading method and risk management rules.  Test the method in REAL TIME over a significant number of trading days.  Do not rely solely on back testing.

Trading can be fun and relatively low stress when one deeply embraces the present moment when trading a viable, well developed and tested methodolgy or system.

Good luck and I truly wish you all the best,

Market Monk

May 27, 2005

Positive Feedback from a reader is always appreciated - Thank you Victor

----- Original Message -----
From: "Victor"
To: "Market Monk"
Sent: Friday, May 27, 2005 2:35 AM

Subject: Faithful Reader

Mr. Monk,

I can't thank you enough for opening my eyes to the opportunities that are available in the markets everyday.

I have been a very studious student of the markets learning all types of technical analysis, but nothing could be more important to my profitability than reading your blog.

The reason I can make such a bold statement is that in every book, seminar, etc that I have read or watched, no one had suggested the present moment trading concept (except Mark Douglas).  All the books and gurus tell you how to wait for the perfect setup and be patient.

"Don't over trade"!  Well if you are not in the market how do you expect to be able to catch the swings (commissions are cheap compared to big losses).  Inevitably you take the setups that stop you out or are small wins.  Then you don't take or get out too early on setups that are the bigger moves.  By then your psychology is in a puddle on the floor and you are really not sure about why you could always be on the wrong side of the market given your knowledge and experience about the markets.

Also if you are not trading size then it can make it difficult to make any significant earnings because a good day is 3 to 5 points and bad days are break even or small losses.

Well I have been using the present moment trading concept over the past three weeks and I can unequivocally say it works.  I have been averaging 8 points a day with an 80% success ratio, no losing days in the last 2 weeks. I have been making between 8-15 trades per day, compared to my previous 1-3 trades per day.  I have never had these kind of numbers before.  The difference is my commission expenses are higher, but so are my profits.

The analogy I thought of that fits well with the PMT concept is now I am the casino owner dealing every hand and taking small risks.  I'm not trying to be an expert black jack player counting the cards, putting big bets down when the cards are in my favor and trying to take money from the house.

I have found the way to enlightened trading and very much appreciate the time and willingness you have put into sharing your knowledge in your blog.

--
Best regards,

Victor
(He asked me to remove his last name for privacy reasons.)

My reply:
Thank you Victor for sharing your personal experience applying the Present Moment Trading concept. I am glad to hear someone has taken this blog seriously and started working with the knowledge. Over time you will increase the results as your insights and timing improve.

You have made great progress in a short period of time.  Keep up the good trading and consider increasing your trading size in small increments.  Once you get to 100 contracts per trade and are reversing on 200 lots you will be making around 200k per week at your current average.

You are on your way to changing your life and your family's life forever.

All the best and God's speed,
Market Monk

25 best-paid hedge fund managers

Friday, May 27, 2005

Alpha's Top 25 best-paid hedge fund managers

by Stephen Taub

Institutional Investor.com

[Below is an excerpt from Alpha magazine's Rich List featuring the 25 best-paid hedge fund managers. To view the full article and the entire issue of Alpha magazine, including the Hedge Fund 100, click here to subscribe.]

To make the list of the best-paid hedge fund managers, you had to make $100 million — and that was in a so-so year.

Trying to impress New Yorkers with money is like trying to impress Muscovites with snow: The stuff is just too commonplace. Yet never before in the annals of wealth and power in Manhattan has there been an upswelling of plutocracy quite like the ascendancy of hedge fund managers. Even the most blasé Gothamites are taking note.

But then, never before have so few made so much so fast. Just to appear on Alpha's 2005 list of the top 25 hedge fund earners required $100 million. To come out No. 1 took an astonishing $1 billion, a distinction earned by Edward Lampert of ESL Investments. In all, the 25 hedge fund managers on our rich list reaped an average of $251 million from fees and from gains on their investments in their funds. By comparison, the CEO of a typical top 500 U.S. corporation hauled in a measly $10 million last year. That $251 million, by the way, stacks up nicely against the comparable figure for the hedge fund managers on the 2004 rich list: $207 million. Or that for the year before: $110 million.

Now, like the really rich before them, hedge fund managers are asserting themselves beyond the business sphere: in the arts, in politics and in society. And they are reshaping the upper end of the markets in two commodities that ultra-affluent New Yorkers cherish: fine art and luxury real estate. "Hedge fund managers are absolutely the reason the art market is soaring," says Milton Esterow, editor and publisher of ARTnews. Allan Schwartzman, an adviser to private collectors and museums, calls hedge fund managers "voracious" collectors.

Steven Cohen of SAC Capital Advisors (whose earnings of $450 million put him at No. 4 on our top 25 list) has rapidly assembled a serious collection of contemporary and modern art. He reportedly paid $52 million for a Jackson Pollock, $20 million for a Manet and $25 million for a Warhol. Cohen also shelled out $8 million for Damien Hirst's Physical Impossibility of Death in the Mind of Someone Living, a 14-foot tiger shark entombed in formaldehyde. ARTnews has named Cohen one of the world's top ten art collectors for the third straight year.

Kenneth Griffin of Citadel Investment Group (No. 8 on our list, with $240 million) made the ARTnews ranking for the first time last year, after plunking down an undisclosed sum for a Cézanne still life, Curtain, Jug and Fruit Bowl; it sold for $60.5 million in 1999. At least eight hedge fund managers were among the magazine's 200 top art collectors in 2004.

Of course, important art demands an appropriate showcase. Cohen is said to be forking over $24 million for two apartments at One Beacon Court in midtown Manhattan so that he can create a duplex pied-à-terre on the upper floors. (His main residence is in Greenwich, Connecticut.) No word yet on whether the shark is going up- or downstairs.

Collecting property can be almost as gratifying for hedge fund tycoons, apparently, as buying paintings or large fish. "Hedge funds have had a big effect on the real estate market," reports Barbara Corcoran, chairwoman of New York–based real estate firm Corcoran Group. "The very top tier has been changed by hedge funds."

To offer another example in the eight-digit domain (anything less is ho-hum): York Capital Management's James Dinan (whose $125 million in earnings place him No. 14 on our rich list) reportedly paid $21 million for a Fifth Avenue co-op owned by former Tyco International chief executive L. Dennis Kozlowski. And Caxton Associates' Bruce Kovner, third on the rich list (with $550 million), is said to be spending well upwards of $20 million to refurbish the 20,000-square-foot Federal-style mansion he bought on New York's Fifth Avenue in 1999 for $17.5 million.

Whatever cultural or social (or property) ambitions the top 25 hedge fund managers may have, they landed on our list because they have been superb investors over the long haul. But in a notable development, they are no longer quite so reserved about it: Not content to look for opportunities in today's lackluster markets, many are making things happen through aggressive shareholder activism of a sort not witnessed in more than two decades.

"Hedge funds are definitely flexing their muscles," declares George Bason Jr., co-head of the merger practice at New York law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell. Adds former Georgeson Shareholder Communications vice chairman John Wilcox, who recently joined TIAA-CREF as head of corporate governance, "It reminds me of the role arbitrageurs played in the 1980s, when we had financially driven takeovers."

Hedge funds played pivotal, and well-publicized, roles in the ouster of the head of Deutsche Börse and in the shake-up of the board at video rental chain Blockbuster. The striking thing about this new hedge fund activism is how pervasive, and how relentless, it has become.

Late last year Perry Capital's Richard Perry, No. 13 on the rich list (with $153 million), engineered a complex and controversial transaction involving his Perry Partners fund with the aim of ensuring that Mylan Laboratories completed its purchase of King Pharmaceuticals, in which Perry Partners had a sizable interest. Perry scooped up enough shares of Mylan to be able to exert sway in the generic-drug maker's boardroom as the company's largest shareholder. Simultaneously, however, he shorted an equal amount of Mylan stock to hedge his bet. Despite all this maneuvering, the Mylan-King merger — fiercely opposed by Mylan shareholder and onetime corporate raider Carl Icahn — appeared to have collapsed as of mid-May, because of accounting issues at King. Nonetheless, Perry's ploy underscores the lengths to which hedge fund managers will go to do deals.

In March, Beverly Enterprises agreed to put itself up for sale two months after Appaloosa Management's David Tepper — who made $420 million last year, placing him at No. 5 on the rich list — and other investors proposed to buy the nursing home company. The investors won the right to participate in the auction of Beverly.

"I'd be lying to say I didn't look up to guys like Carl Icahn, T. Boone Pickens, the Coniston Partners, Irwin Jacobs — people like that — as corporate heroes," says one of the more activist hedge fund managers, Daniel Loeb of Third Point (No. 20, with $110 million). "I was in my early 20s, and these guys were coining serious money by buying positions in undervalued companies and taking on entrenched management head-on."

Perhaps the exemplar of the hedge fund activist writ large is ESL's Lampert — the first to crack the $1 billion mark in our four-year-old survey. Last year he orchestrated a merger between two of his holdings, shopworn retailers Sears, Roebuck & Co. and Kmart Holding Corp. Lampert's majority stake in Kmart, mostly bought while the company was in bankruptcy, more than tripled in price last year. Meanwhile, his Sears shares surged 12 percent. ESL racked up an estimated 69 percent gross return.

Lampert was hardly the only hedge fund manager to break the bank despite decidedly lackluster returns for hedge funds as a group. (Consulting firm Hennessee Group calculates that the average hedge fund was up just 8.3 percent last year.)

Quant guru James Simons of Renaissance Technologies Corp. made $670 million, putting him at No. 2 on the list. His Medallion fund rolled up a 24.9 percent net gain. SAC Capital's Cohen managed 23 percent net. Caxton's Kovner can't brag about his performance — his Caxton Global Investments fund was up 9.9 percent in 2004 — but he has such a huge personal stake in his funds from years of exceptional returns that he still finished high up on the rich list.

On the whole, the biggest earners tended to do well both because they had lots of their own capital in their funds and because they achieved great performance. Others less wealthy (though hardly poor) benefited principally from extraordinary gains. The best example: Tontine Associates' Jeffrey Gendell, No. 12 on the rich list. His take was $180 million, mainly because his key fund rolled up a 101.4 percent net return.

Still others of the top 25 collected huge sums despite so-so returns, because they have so much capital in their funds. The single-digit (net) set includes Kovner; Soros Fund Management's George Soros (No. 6), who made $305 million; and Highbridge Capital Management's Glenn Dubin and Henry Swieca (tied at No. 18), each of whom earned $115 million.

Hedge fund managers, of course, cultivate secrecy almost as assiduously as they do returns. But even those who have not set out to become activists are collectively moving the markets. Consulting firm Greenwich Associates found that in 2004 hedge funds accounted for 82 percent of trading in U.S. distressed debt and almost 30 percent of trading in U.S. credit derivatives and sub-investment-grade bonds. Cohen's $6 billion-in-assets SAC Capital is alone responsible for about 3 percent of the trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange.

Such clout may not be altogether a bad thing. Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan, for one, has said that "hedge funds have become major contributors to the flexibility of the financial system — a development that proved essential to our ability to absorb so many economic shocks in recent years."

Yet even for excess-inured New Yorkers, the shock of hedge fund managers' pay may take some getting used to.

---------------------------

1. $1.02 billion
Edward Lampert
ESL Investments

Attention, Sears shoppers: Eddie Lampert is in the house. More J.P. Morgan than George Soros, the ESL Investments chief pulled off a daring coup in March 2005 using his substantial stakes in Kmart Holding Corp. and Sears, Roebuck & Co. to merge the two famed but fading retailers into Sears Holdings Corp. At year-end his Kmart and Sears stakes combined accounted for 63 percent of his $9.2 billion equity portfolio. So far the bet has been nothing short of brilliant: Lampert's Kmart shares — one of just a handful of stakes the value-oriented investor holds — more than tripled in value last year, helping to lift his overall portfolio by an estimated 69 percent, before his 1 percent management fee and 20 percent performance fee. Some market observers speculate that Lampert will use Sears' cash flow to do additional deals.

Lampert held shares in just three companies other than Kmart for the full year. The stocks rose modestly: Sears by 12 percent, AutoZone by 7 percent and AutoNation by nearly 5 percent. Lampert also did a little pruning in 2004. Early on he sold a big chunk of Footstar at a 25 percent premium over its year-end 2003 price. In the first quarter of 2004, he also sold off his small stake in financial services company Providian Financial Corp. for roughly 37 percent more than it traded for at the end of 2003.

The 42-year-old Lampert, whose firm is based in Greenwich, Connecticut, knows firsthand how elusive wealth and security can be. He grew up in upscale Roslyn on New York's Long Island, but when he was 14, his lawyer father died at 47. In January 2003, Lampert was kidnapped and held for two days until he escaped. Lampert graduated summa cum laude with a bachelor's degree in economics from Yale University, where he was a member of Skull & Bones. He started as an arbitrageur under former U.S. Treasury secretary Robert Rubin at Goldman, Sachs & Co. Lampert left to start ESL in 1988, working out of the Fort Worth, Texas, offices of investor Richard Rainwater, who staked Lampert with $28 million. The two subsequently had a falling-out.

--------------------------------

2. $670 million
James Simons
Renaissance Technologies Corp.

An award-winning geometrician, Jim Simons knows the angles like few other investors. Last year his Medallion fund posted a return of 24.9 percent net of his stiff fees: 5 percent for management and 44 percent of performance. That works out to a gross return of some 44 percent. Since the fund's inception he has returned nearly 38 percent net to investors (though in the early years, his fees were much lower). Simons has long charged that 5 percent management fee, but as recently as 2001, his performance fee was 20 percent.

Helping to maintain those sky-high returns, Simons keeps a close grip on the size of his fund, which is increasingly becoming a vehicle to invest just the money of partners and employees. Last year Medallion gave back all current income and 50 percent of the capital of nonemployees. Another move toward becoming more closely held: The firm recently removed its presence from the Web.

Simons uses sophisticated computer programs to trade rapidly and frequently employs a lot of leverage. Regulatory filings show that Renaissance had a $9.6 billion equity portfolio spread over 1,654 issues at the end of 2004, up from $8.5 billion at the end of the previous quarter but well down from $15 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2003. Simons' largest holdings at year-end 2004 were (in order of size): Oracle Corp., Coca-Cola Co., Verizon Communications and EBay.

Famed for eschewing traditional Wall Street types in favor of science and math whizzes, East Setauket, New York–based Renaissance employs some 60 individuals with Ph.D.s. Simons, 67, received his bachelor's degree from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and his Ph.D. in mathematics from the University of California at Berkeley. A former chairman of the mathematics department at the State University of New York in Stony Brook who has taught math at MIT and Harvard University, Simons wants to boost the math skills of both students and teachers. In early 2004 he founded Math for America with other top mathematicians, investment bankers and educators. Last November the group, which Simons chairs, said it would contribute $25 million to establish the Newton Fellowship Program, which will train 180 math teachers for New York City public high schools over the next five years and give 40 to 45 math teachers stipends of $50,000 over four years for professional development.

-------------------------

3. $550 million
Bruce Kovner
Caxton Associates

Though his firm's performance has improved, Bruce Kovner continues — for him, anyway — to struggle. Last year's return of 9.93 percent outdid the 8.10 percent for 2003 — Kovner's worst showing in a decade — but remains far from the 30 percent annualized gains enjoyed over the past 22 years by his flagship, $9.2 billion offshore fund, Caxton Global Investments. Much of Caxton's 2004 return came in the fourth quarter, when the fund's shares rose by 7.69 percent. In a letter to investors, Caxton chief economist John Makin said that fourth-quarter gains in currencies, stocks, commodities and non-U.S. financials outweighed losses in energies and that U.S. financials underpinned the fourth-quarter showing. The fund had a strong first-quarter 2004, racking up a 4.6 percent increase on gains in commodities, energies, stocks and financials, which overcame losses in currencies.

At the end of 2004, New York–based Caxton had a $3.4 billion equity portfolio of 580 individual issues. The biggest position by far was a $311 million stake in SPDRs, exchange-traded funds that mimic the Standard & Poor's 500 index. His largest stock positions, in order: Guidant Corp., Conseco, Mandalay Resort Group, Assurant and R.H. Donnelley Corp. Kovner also simultaneously hedged a number of long positions with puts in issues that included Chemed Corp., Cleveland-Cliffs, Kmart Holding Corp. and Time Warner.

A Harvard College grad, Kovner, 60, is founder and chairman of the School Choice Scholarships Foundation, which provides scholarships for low-income students from New York City to attend primary schools of their choice. He is also chairman of the board of trustees of the Juilliard School, chairman of the American Enterprise Institute and a member of the boards of the New York Philharmonic and of the Thomas B. Fordham Foundation, which promotes reform of elementary and secondary schools. Kovner is also vice chairman of Lincoln Center for the Performing Arts. A recent New York Times story estimated that Kovner is spending between $20 million and $40 million to renovate his redbrick Federal-style townhouse at Fifth Avenue and 94th Street, which had housed the International Center of Photography. He bought it for $17.5 million in 1999.

--------------------------------

4. $450 million
Steven Cohen
SAC Capital Advisors

Few, if any, people trade stocks as rapidly or aggressively — or anywhere near as successfully — as Stevie Cohen, whose Stamford, Connecticut–based SAC Capital Advisors regularly accounts for about 3 percent of the New York Stock Exchange's average daily volume. In 2004, SAC, which manages some $6 billion, turned in another spectacular year — a 23 percent average net return for its various funds. Given Cohen's exceptionally high performance fees — he earns up to 50 percent of his funds' returns on some funds — that translates into a roughly 40 percent gross return.

Cohen, 49, dramatically increased the size of his equity portfolio last year, to $8.6 billion at year-end from $3.2 billion at the end of 2003. His biggest positions in December 2004: cellular company Sprint Corp., utilities TXU Corp. and NRG Energy, medical-devices maker Stryker Corp. and four different issues of IShares, which are exchange-traded funds. He heavily hedged these positions with puts, including ones on IShares and individual stocks, including American Pharmaceutical Partners, U.S. Steel Corp. and Electronic Arts.

Like other hedge fund managers, Cohen has begun to play a more active role in certain of his investments. In November, SAC provided $40 million in financing to embattled retailer Wet Seal in exchange for convertible notes and warrants. The retailer subsequently removed its chief executive, who had failed to turn around the ailing company, and Wet Seal later became the subject of an informal Securities and Exchange Commission probe into circumstances surrounding the delayed filing of its second-quarter 2004 results. Cohen, a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, has also begun to amass bigger, longer-term stakes of at least 5 percent in other chains, including video rental companies Blockbuster and Movie Gallery and health club operator Bally Total Fitness Holding Corp.

A celebrated art collector, Cohen has for the past three years been named one of ARTnews magazine's top ten collectors. The New York Times estimates that since 2000 he has spent more than $300 million building a collection that includes works by Jackson Pollock, Édouard Manet, Edgar Degas and Roy Lichtenstein. Cohen is also said to have plunked down $8 million for Damien Hirst's 14-foot tiger shark submerged in a tank of formaldehyde.

---------------------------

5. $420 million
David Tepper
Appaloosa Management

His returns can be as up-and-down as a painted pony on a carousel, but David Tepper has been riding high of late: Last year he managed a nearly 34 percent net return. Not too bad, except in comparison to Tepper's otherworldly performance in 2003, when his two main funds — Appaloosa Investment I and Palomino Funds — racked up nearly 150 percent returns net of his 1 percent management fee and 20 percent performance fee, earning him some $510 million for the year.

Of his 42 percent gross gains in 2004, 23 percentage points' worth came from plays in equities, particularly mining, coal, steel and copper and other commodities stocks. His second- and third-biggest gains came from positions in U.S. Steel Corp. and Peabody Energy Corp. His biggest moneymaker: Enron Corp. bonds. Altogether, junk positions accounted for 14 percentage points of his returns.

Tepper, who ran $3.6 billion at year-end '04, has been more cautious of late, moving 20 percent of his assets into cash. He gave $700 million back to his investors at year-end. The 47-year-old, who started Chatham, New Jersey–based Appaloosa in 1993 after heading junk bond trading at Goldman, Sachs & Co., teamed up earlier this year with Formation Capital, Franklin Mutual Advisers and Northbrook NBV to launch a proxy fight against Beverly Enterprises, after the nursing home operator rejected their $1.5 billion takeover bid. The investors — Formation, Appaloosa, Franklin Mutual and Northbrook — agreed to back off shortly before the April 21 annual meeting, when they reached an agreement with Beverly to participate in an auction of the company.

Last year Tepper and his wife, Marlene, pledged $55 million to Pittsburgh's Carnegie Mellon University School of Business, where he received a master's degree in industrial administration in 1982. The school was renamed the Tepper School of Business. The couple also gave $27 million to the David Tepper Charitable Foundation, which donates to, among other organizations, Care, Goodwill Rescue Mission and the Salvation Army, according to data compiled by the Chronicle of Philanthropy for Web magazine Slate.com.

To view the full article and the entire issue of Alphamagazine, including the Hedge Fund 100, click here to subscribe.

George Soros
Soros Fund Management

Paul Tudor Jones II
Tudor Investment Corp.

Kenneth Griffin
Citadel Investment Group

Raymond Dalio
Bridgewater Associates

Israel Englander
Millennium Partners

James Pallotta
Tudor Investment Corp.

Jeffrey Gendell
Tontine Associates

Richard Perry
Perry Capital

James Dinan
York Capital Management

Marc Lasry
Avenue Capital Group

Daniel Och
Och-Ziff Capital Management Group

Stephen Mandel Jr.
Lone Pine Capital

Glenn Dubin
Highbridge Capital Management

Henry Swieca
Highbridge Capital Management

Lee Ainslie III
Maverick Capital

Stanley Druckenmiller
Duquesne Capital Management

Daniel Loeb
Third Point

Louis Bacon
Moore Capital Management

Leon Cooperman
Omega Advisors

Thomas Steyer
Farallon Capital Management

[Alpha magazine helps you devise smarter investment strategies and gives you an exclusive look at the operations of some of the world's most successful hedge funds. Each issue brings an insight that help you refine and enhance your own profile, and lets you see what your peers are doing in the industry. Subscribe today and see how Alpha magazine is lifting the lid on the hedge fund industry with unique rankings, interviews with major industry players, analysis, comment and in-depth investigations.]

May 28, 2005

Euro FX Weekly Chart

Click on the chart to enlarge.
Euro_fx_weekly_may_27_2005_1

Exxon Mobil (XOM) Technical Price Target Update

On April 28, 2005 I posted a chart and commentary on XOM with a technical price target. See first chart below.  This post is an update one month later. See what happened in the second chart.

Click on charts to enlarge.
Xom_60_min_apr_28_05_1    Xom_120_min_may_27_2005

By the way, on March 9, 2005 I created a chart of XOM showing a massive technical sell signal and emailed it to a few trader friends.  I posted the chart to this blog on March 25, 2005, three days after starting the PMTC, which can be found at Exxon Mobil Technical Top Pattern.

Click on the chart to enlarge.
Xom_daily_mar_9_2005_2

Nasdaq Comp and Intel form Head and Shoulders Pattern

Back in January 2004 I created a weekly chart of the Nasdaq Composite Index showing a forecast of an inverted head and shoulders pattern that I anticipated forming in the index. I emailed the chart to a few trader friends back then. By the way, I have the email date and time stamp to prove it.  The first chart is the original forecast.

The second chart shows the pattern developing into a complex inverted head and shoulders pattern over the last 17 months.  What is interesting is that Intel Corp. stock price formed the original pattern I forecasted in January 2004. See third chart.

As I wrote in my Market Forecasting vs. Real Trading post please remember, "market forecasting and predicting is an academic exercise and an intellectual challenge, not a trading strategy."

If the massive multi year inverted head & shoulders pattern is activated by a weekly close above the neckline, it projects much higher prices going forward.

Click on the chart to enlarge.
Nasdaq_comp_weekly_jan_30_2004    Nasdaq_comp_weekly_h_s_may_2005    Intel_weekly_h_s_may_2005

May 29, 2005

Technical Bar Chart Analysis Entry Points and Trade Management

Since I started publishing this blog I have posted 104 charts on various markets and stocks with the intent to convey to you how I use technical analysis to help me trade at the most high probability / low risk opportunities I can find.  Hopefully, you will take away something from the bar chart analysis posts that are helpful to you in your personal trading.

For instance, those of you who have read this blog know I like to use trendlines to trade off of. The eMini S&P 500 Trendline Signal and Swing Signal Examples post shows the exact trendline I used to go long the S&P 500 futures at 1136.75 (four tics from the low of the year). Although the post was made 7 hours after the fact do not let that invalidate in your own mind the power of trendlines. When you learn how and when to use trendlines, your trading entries will be great.

Prior to starting this blog there was a beautiful trendline sell signal on the S&P 500 cash daily chart that I traded using the eMini futures.  (Yes, I trade the futures based on cash index signals) The trendline called the high of the year to date back on March 7, 2005.  See chart below.

Please keep in mind that knowing where and when to trade is not a complete strategy or method.  There is more to it. Stop loss management and post entry position management is THE most important part of trading. How you manage a position once you are in the market determines how much profit you make.

Those of you who have read the Introduction know where I am coming from. "Do not expect me to give you a free lunch with alcoholic beverages.  In other words, I will not reveal the details of my day trading method.  I worked too hard to learn pure and unpublished knowledge directly from the market over the last 22 years of research and trading."

There is enough pure technical trading knowledge on this blog to make you an extremely profitable trader, if applied properly and consistently. What is not on this blog is how to trade the patterns and how to manage a trade after entry. That knowledge is more valuable then technical price bar pattern recognition entry points.

I get numerous emails from readers who want to know more.  I understand and appreciate the desire to acquire knowledge. I have been a seeker of trading knowledge for 22 years.  With that in mind, please read my Memorable Quotes to Live By post right after reading this post. Then after thinking about the quotes a few minutes ask yourself this question -- Who should you be asking to know more about trading?

You may know the answer right now, but please read the "Memorable Quotes" post anyway.  Once you truly accept the words of wisdom in the quotes and let the ideas touch you deeply your life will change and you will never be the same human being for the rest of your infinite life.

All the best,
Market Monk

Click on the chart to enlarge.
Sp_500_cash_daily_chart_trendline_sell_s

May 31, 2005

DJIA Monthly Seasonal Chart 1885 - 2004

Ron Griess, the owner of TheChartStore.com has one of the deepest databases in the business and creates some of the best charts in the world.  Ron likes blowing away "market myths" with his charts.  "Sell in May and go away" is one myth he blew away in his most recent weekly blog post. (subscription required)

Here is one of the charts from his post dated May 27, 2005

Click on the chart to enlarge.
Djia_monthly_seasonal_avg_1_month_percen

Large Speculator Short Interest in NASDAQ 100 Futures

Michael J. Panzner author of, The New Laws of the Stock Market Jungle: An Insider's Guide to Successful Investing in a Changing World has some interesting charts posted to his Insights and Links webpage.

The most interesting, in my opinion, is the "Large Speculator Short Interest in NASDAQ 100 Futures: Bullish?" chart posted on May 26, 2005.

Click on the chart to enlarge
Large_spec_net_long_short_pos_in_naz_100

June 02, 2005

Euro FX Monthly Gann Swing Chart

In my previous Euro FX post I neglected to recognize and note the primary monthly Gann swing sell signal.  I should have taken a look at the monthly chart before.  Well here it is now. I had to hand draw the swing lines to create an true Gann swing chart. Reminds me of the old days.  :-)

Click on the chart to enlarge.
Euro_fx_monthly_swing_chart_june_2_2005

Fibonacci and the Dutch EU Constitution Vote

Maybe it is just a coincidence, but I could not help from noticing how close the turnout and vote was to the 61.8% Fibonacci ratio.

The results of the referendum: the Dutch voted 61.6% against the European Union constitution on a 62.8% turnout.

June 04, 2005

US Equity Index Futures Shift to eMini Contract

Click on chart to enlarge.
Equity_index_futures_shift_to_emini_trad

Power of Will by Frank Channing Haddock M.S. Ph.D. 1919

The following book is on W.D. Gann's recommended reading list.

Download power_of_will_by_frank_channing_haddock_ms_phd_1919_on_wdganns_recommened_reading_list.pdf

The Alpha Application of Natural Law to the Speculative Markets by Greg Ruff 1999

Download the_application_of_ganns_natural_law_to_markets.pdf

Market Cycles & Fibonacci, Gann, Elliot, Benner Cycles & Financial Astrology by Philip Riou 2003

Download market_cycles_fibonacci_gann_elliott_benner_cycles_financial_astrology_philip_rio.pdf

Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and International Stock Markets by Anna Krivelyova and Cesare Robotti -- FRB of Atlanta -- February 2003

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank of the united states of America

Download fed_atlanta_geomagnetic_storms_and_stock_markets.pdf

The Secrets To: Emotion Free Trading by Larry Levin

Larry Levin of Futures Education wrote this e-book to help beginner and novice traders.  I do not agree with a few of his trading rules, but it is definitely worth reading.

Download emotion_free_investing.pdf

June 06, 2005

TRADER Monthly - Top 100 Traders in 5 Categories for 2004

TRADER Monthly June / July 2005 Issue
Trader_montly_june_july_2005_cover_3
The Trader Monthly 100 - Introduction

Monday: The Top Hedge-Fund Traders
Tuesday: The Top Commodity & Pit Traders
Wednesday: The Top Prop & Indie Traders
Thursday: The Tycoons & Legends
Friday: The Top Wall Street & Bank Traders

Estimated Income of The Top Hedge - Fund Traders in 2004:
1.  $600-$650 million
2.  $500-$550 million
3.  $450-$500 million
4.  $200-$250 million
5.  $150-$200 million
6.  $150-$200 million
7.  $100-$150 million
8. thru 12. $75-$100 million
13. thru 18. $50 - $75 million
19. thru 25. $40 - $50 million
26. thru 33.  $30 - $40 million
34. thru 42.  $25 - $30 million

Estimated Income of The Highest Earning Commodity and Pit Traders in 2004:
1.  $20 - $25 million
2.  $15 - $20 million
3. thru 7.  $10 - $15 million

If you want to know the details then I encourage you to subscribe to the magazine. I am waiting for mine to arrive in the mail.

The Quantitative, Data-Based, Risk-Massaging Road to Riches

The Quantitative, Data-Based, Risk-Massaging Road to Riches

By JOSEPH NOCERA
New York Times Magazine
Published: June 5, 2005

Introduction paragraph:
Clifford Asness is probably going to be annoyed when he sees that this article begins with a discussion about how much money he makes, but there's no way around it. Asness is a very successful hedge-fund manager, and very successful hedge-fund managers make stupendous amounts of money, even by Wall Street's extravagant standards. And in the public mind, their staggering compensation tends to overshadow pretty much everything else. ''Filthy Stinking Rich'' was New York magazine's unambiguous take on the hedge-fund phenomenon some months ago. Last month, in its survey of the best-paid hedge-fund managers, Institutional Investor's Alpha magazine reported that the average pay for the top 25 hedge-fund managers was an astounding $251 million in 2004. Asness himself has written, in one of his better lines, that hedge funds ''are generally run for rich people in Geneva, Switzerland, by rich people in Greenwich, Conn.''

Excerpt of two paragraphs from the article I especially like:
The computer model they developed -- and which, after many refinements, they still use today -- grabs a wealth of up-to-the-minute data to identify the cheapest value stocks (Fama and French), but only value stocks that seemed to have started on an upward swing (Asness). They buy a large block -- about 200 to 300 -- of those stocks. Then the model identifies stocks with the opposite characteristics: growth stocks whose rise is stalling. They sell an equally weighted amount of those stocks short. Unlike A.W. Jones, who had only a percentage of his portfolio on the short side, the Asness portfolio is perfectly balanced between longs and shorts. That is what makes his fund ''market neutral.'' It doesn't matter to him whether the market goes up or down. AQR makes money if its basket of value stocks beats its equally weighted basket of growth stocks -- the way the history suggests it should two-thirds of the time.

Asness and his colleagues soon discovered that the strategy they had come up with worked not only with stocks but with currencies, commodities and even entire economies. (Yes, economies. Asness and his team use economic data to sort out ''overvalued'' versus ''undervalued'' countries, and then buy -- or short -- those countries' market indexes, their S.&P. 500 equivalents.) In time, they developed models that sorted out cheap versus expensive in all kinds of different investments.

Market Monk's comments:
I find it quite interesting that a $13.5 billion hedge fund run by a Ph.D. uses a swing pattern to trigger the signals to enter the market long and short. Where have I read about swing trading? Oh, this blog.

June 08, 2005

Space Weather Alerts

On Saturday, June 4 I post a report published by the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank in February 2003. Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and International Stock Markets

If you are curious how to track geomagnectic space storms I have a link for you at
Space Weather Alerts.

NOAA Space Weather Scales

The NOAA Space Weather Scales were introduced as a way to communicate to the general public the current and future space weather conditions and their possible effects on people and systems. Many of the SEC products describe the space environment, but few have described the effects that can be experienced as the result of environmental disturbances. These scales will be useful to users of our products and those who are interested in space weather effects. The scales describe the environmental disturbances for three event types: geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, and radio blackouts. The scales have numbered levels, analogous to hurricanes, tornadoes, and earthquakes that convey severity. They list possible effects at each level. They also show how often such events happen, and give a measure of the intensity of the physical causes.

June 09, 2005

SP500 Charts Thurs. June 09 -- & Jes Black of FX Money Trends

Jes Black is the editor and publisher of FX Money Trends.  He also runs a hedge fund with good returns.  He is a technical trader that spices his market calls with cycles and history.  Although I do not subscribe to his newsletter I think he knows how to read charts well and is worth taking a look at.

He periodically posts technical analysis reports on various markets to the financial sense website.  Tonight he posted a good report entitled "Dollar Target Right on Track" with an interesting technical outlook on the S&P 500 index, US Dollar/Euro, Bonds and Gold.

I disagree with his long term outlook for the S&P 500 on a cyclical basis, but on a short term basis if the S&P 500 breaks today's low at 1191.09 cash and 1191.25 June futures then a Gann Swing Sell Signal will be activated and suggest a summer correction has started.  The daily, weekly and monthly trend is still up until proven otherwise. The US stock indexes held technical support today at the low and rallied strong.  Those looking for a big correction or new lows on the year are fighting the current trend and the decennial cycle. Nevertheless a shallow correction of the rally since the low on Friday afternoon May 13 will start with a break of today's low.  Hopefully this summer will see some good price volatility in both directions.  Bring on the volatility! It makes trading much more fun and profitable.

Click on charts to enlarge.
E_mini_sp500_360_min_all_sessions_june_0_1

June 10, 2005

Trader Monthly 100 - Highest Earning Prop and Independent Traders in 2004

The TRADER Monthly June/July 2005 issue is a must read for all traders who want to take themselves to the next level. 

If they can do it, you can do it.  As soon as you realize and accept that you can make it happen.  The profile on Dan Zanger below will blow away all the skeptics reading this blog.  By the way, a reader of this blog personally knows Zanger and has had him over to watch the superbowl and has gone boating with him.  What a small world.

If you do not believe that you can do it then stop trading and buy a CD at the bank.  Start doing something you believe you can do or you are wasting your time.

1. $75 - $100 million - Thomas Peterffy - 60 years old - majority owner in privately held Interactive Brokers Group. Made an estimated $250 million in 2003.

2. $40 - $50 million - 34 years old
3. $40 - $50 million
4. $30 - $40 million
5. $30 - $40 million - Paul Rotter 33 years old
6. $20 - $25 million - 38 years old
7. $20 - $25 million
8. $20 - $25 million
9. $15 - $20 million
10. $10 - $15 million
11. $10 - $15 million
12. $10 - $15 million

Profile of No. 10 on the list
Dan Zanger

City: Miami
Firm: Chartpattern.com
Age: 52

What He Trades: No commodities, currency plays or black-box intelligence for this self-made prop legend. Instead, he trades mostly Nasdaq stocks. On the surface, Zanger is a purist, using chart patterns and more chart patterns to find his prey.

How He Trades: What is he looking for? "Frisky stocks that are starting to perk," he says. He takes a high-intensity "180-mph, inches from the wall" margined 2-to-1 approach to trading. In early 1998, Internet stocks exploded, and as they cooled in late 1999, biotechs took off. They ran for six months; then fiber-optic stocks took over in 2000 and cooked until Nortel preannounced a shortfall in earnings. Zanger has found that such groups run for around 6 to 18 months, and then it's time to move on. "You have to know what's hot and follow that stock or group. I find out who the winners are and stick with them, moving in and out until they begin to fizzle," he says. On a typical trading day, you'll find him glued to his computer screens, following anywhere from 40 to 60 stocks, watching his "frisky buddies" for breakouts or breakdowns.

How He Got Started: After finishing high school in 1971, Zanger was a ski bum for four years, then got addicted to Charting the Market, a little-watched television show on channel 22 in Los Angeles, on which the host charted pennants, flags, cups and handles and other patterns. In 1989, Zanger took a course from Bill O'Neil and would spend three hours on weekdays and 15 hours on weekends looking for chart patterns in his chart books; he still applies O'Neil's signature "Canslim" formula to this day. In the early '90s, he had correctly identified rallies but got killed on corrections. By 1996, he had learned to recognize market tops; he accurately spotted a bearish reversal in the oil index in 1997, which he calls the turning point in his trading career. Taking what was left of his trading capital -- all of $10,775 -- he made $18 million in 18 months. In under two years, this stake had grown to an incredible $42 million.

When He's Not Trading: "Anyone who has worked in the construction business, like I did for 25 years, knows what it's like to work long, hard hours for little income. When the market is open, I have to be there. It is my passion and one of the loves of my life." Zanger has homes in Miami Beach and Los Angeles, and he recently bought a new 88-foot yacht that will be equipped with a four-foot satellite dome that will allow him to trade from anywhere in the world. Zanger boasts an enormous collection of California cult wines and is also an avid collector of art.

Words To Live By: "Price, chart patterns and volume."

Estimated income: $10 - $15 million

 

June 11, 2005

The Zanger Report - Nightly Stock Market Analysis Newsletter

Mr. Daniel J. Zanger of Chartpattern.com is the only trader included in the TRADER Monthly Top 100 Highest Earning Traders for 2004 to offer an advisory service.

It is very rare for a successful trader to offer an investment advisory service.  Obviously, Mr. Zanger is an exception to the rule.

Based on a quick browse of his website I can say that I use the many of the same patterns he uses to trade, but on a much shorter time frame.  Day trading is very different from position trading in many regards, but price bar pattern recognition is one similarity between our methods.

From what I understand Mr. Zanger mainly goes long stocks.  He started going short stocks sometime in 2001 from what I have been told. I am sure he has made good profits since the low in October 2002.

Whatever you think about me and my trading campaign results and whatever you think in general about the potential to make consistent profits trading you must admit that the TRADER Monthly Top 100 Traders list is real.  I know it is real. And yesterday I found out one of my blog readers knows Mr. Zanger and he is real and offers a stock trading analysis newsletter.  If you do not want to follow in my footsteps or can not for whatever reason, surely you can learn from the "CANSLIM" method developed by William O'Neil of Investors Business Daily and from The Zanger Report.  Yes, it will take you a longer period of time to compound your account into the millions, but who cares.  If you decide to trade there methods, all I suggest is you also include short selling into your trading method.  Mr. O'Neil has written several books and I believe a recent one on short selling.

All the best in your trader's journey whichever route you decide to take.  And please remember that you ALONE determine your final destination.

I will leave you the follow words of wisdom to ponder.......

Knowledge is a wide river and there's many ways to cross it. It is necessary to choose respected mentors, not to parrot them but to absorb what you can and use what they teach as stepping stones.
-- Lisa Haynes

True insight does not issue from specialized knowledge, from membership in coteries, from doctrines or dogmas. It comes from the preconscious intuitions of one's whole being, from one's own code.
-- Unknown

Why do you look at me? Look at your own self. Why do you listen to me? Listen to your own self. Why do you believe in what I say? Do not believe in me or any other teacher, rather trust in your own inner voice. This is your guide, this is your teacher. Your teacher is within not without. Know yourself, not me! 
-- Peace pilgrim

Dwelling on past mistakes is a waste of time. If the Ego needs to rectify a misdeed, have it do something that creates good in the present, this will certainly spawn good will for the future and create balance in your life.
-- Beth Johnson

Self-knowledge cannot be gathered through anybody, through any book, through any confession, psychology, or psycho-analyst. It has to be found by yourself, because it is your life.
-- J. Krishnamurti

Wisdom and knowledge are not the same thing. The intellect can never lead one to a complete insight. One has to use one's entire being to come into contact with the truth.
-- Huineng

To attain knowledge, add things every day. To attain wisdom, remove things every day.
-- Tao te ching

June 16, 2005

Russell 2000 Long Term Wave Count and Price Projections Update

It is time to update the Elliott wave count of the Russell 2000 cash index.  On March 24, 2005 I posted my Russell 2000 Long Term Wave Count.

Included in that post is a chart I built on January 11, 2005 with the projection of a wave 2 low between the primary .382 and .618. See first chart below.  The Russell bottomed within 57 cents of the .618.  The nice part about the low is a Gann 25% retracement was clustering with the .618 to help turn the index establishing the wave 2 low.  See second chart.

The probability of the Russell 2000 hitting the 2nd target at 516 is almost zero at this time.  See first chart.

To get a perspective of the long term cyclical trends in the US stock market I encourage you to read the following posts:
S&P 500 Long Term Time and Price Symmetry with Wave Count
The Decennial Cycle and the 5th Year
DJIA 1921-1935 vs Nasdaq Comp 1992-2004

Russell_2000_weekly_wave_count_jan_2005_1    Russell_2000_daily_with_wave_count_thurs_1   Russell_2000_weekly_with_wave_count_and_

Elliott Wave Case Study Stock

The stock price of a well established best of breed company is in the process of completing a parabolic blow off rise into an Elliott 5th wave top. Reminds me of an "internet bubble" stock from 1998 - 2000.

Please look at charts 1 and 2 first.

Charts 1 and  2 display the wave count, but not the company name. While looking at the charts and not knowing the company you will probably agree that the stock is going straight up at this time and probably can not continue at the same rate of change for much longer without at least a significant correction.

Now look at charts 3 and 4.

Does your opinion change after learning the name of the company?  It probably will if you live on the west or east coast of the U.S.A. because the implications of a major top in this stock and its sector will affect a large percentage of the population living on either coast.

It will certainly be interesting to see what happens to this stock's price going forward and all the stocks in the same sector and related sectors.

Click on the charts to enlarge.

Bt_monthly_wave_count_june_16_2005    Bt_weekly_wave_count_june_16_2005    Bt_weekly_june_16_2005    Bt_daily_june_16_2005

June 17, 2005

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Illustrated Edition by Edwin Lefevre

I first read the book in 1983. All who have read it agree it is an all time classic. I purchased the illustrated edition this morning at an Amazon reseller.

If you have not read the book I high recommend you read it many times. I have attached a .pdf version of the book I found this morning on the web to give you a taste of what to expect.  I look forward to sitting down with my illustrated edition this summer.

Good Reading,
Market Monk

--------------------------------------------------

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator was placed by the Financial Times in joint FIRST position in its February 1995 list of the Ten Best Investment Books Ever Written.

--------------------------------------------------

First published in 1923, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is the fictionalized biography of Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest speculators ever. Reminiscences remains the most widely read, highly recommended investment book ever written. Generations of investors have found that it has more to teach them about themselves and other investors than years of experience in the market. This is a timeless tale that will enrich the lives - and portfolios - of today's investors as it has those of generations past.

Description of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Illustrated Edition

The foremost investment classic of all time–now presented in its original, illustrated format.

Unknown to most modern-day investors and traders who cherish Reminiscences of a Stock Operator as one of the most important investment books ever written, the material first appeared in the 1920s as a series of articles and illustrations in the Saturday Evening Post. Now, for the first time ever, this beloved classic is being made available in its original, illustrated format.

Jesse Livermore won and lost tens of millions of dollars playing the stock and commodities markets during the early 1900s - at one point making the then astronomical sum of 10 million dollars in just one month of trading.

In 1922, Edwin LeFevre began publishing his fictionalized account of Livermore's exploits in a series of 11 articles for the Saturday Evening Post, which appeared under the title "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator". Now, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Illustrated Edition, combines those memorable illustrations with LeFevre's timeless investment advice - to recreate the look, feel, and message that was first published more than 80 years ago.

This handsome coffee-table book combines for the first time in a single source, beautifully crafted reproductions of the original "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" articles and artwork as they were initially found in the Saturday Evening Post.

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is among the most compelling and enduring pieces ever written on trading in the markets, and the new Illustrated Edition - brings this story to life like never before. Every investor can now treasure both the vintage art and timeless trading wisdom with this impressive new Illustrated Edition.

Edwin LeFèvre was trained as a mining engineer, but became a journalist at age 19. He produced eight books, including The Making of a Stockbroker, during his 53-year writing career. He is a celebrated finance author made famous for his fictionalized account of Jesse Livermore, which first appeared in the Saturday Evening Post in 1922.

Contents of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Illustrated Edition

Foreword by William J. O'Neil
Introduction
I. The Biggest Plunger Wall Street Ever Saw: June 10, 1922
II. The Boy Trader Beats the Bucket Shops: June 17, 1922
III. I Was Dead Right-I Lost Ever Cent I Had: July 1, 1922
IV. The Quarter Million Dollar Hunch: July 15, 1922
V. My Day of Days: August 12, 1922 VI. No Man Living Can Beat the Stock Market: Sept. 2, 1922
VII. Playing Another Man's Game: Sept 16, 1922
VIII. $1 Million in Debt; $1 Million Repaid: Oct. 7, 1922
IX. Black Cats and Irresistible Impulses: Oct. 21, 1922
X. The Coffee Corner and the Price Fixing Committee: Dec. 16, 1922
XI. Why the Public Always Loses: May 19, 1923
XII. Kings, Paupers, and the Hazards of the Game: May 26, 1923

Publisher's Postscript About Edwin Lefevre
Edwin Lefevre was trained as a mining engineer, but became a journalist at age nineteen. He produced eight books, including The Making of a Stockbroker, during his 53-year writing career. He is a celebrated finance author made famous by his publication of the fictionalized story of Jesse Livermore, which first appeared in The Saturday Evening Post in 1922.

Download reminiscences_of_a_stock_operator_the_story_of_jesse_livermore_by_edwin_lefevre.pdf

The Global Housing Boom

This post is a follow up to the Elliott Wave Case Study Stock post from yesterday. I find it more than a coincidence that yesterday Toll Brothers, one of the largest builders of high end homes in the US, stock price has gone parabolic and reached its 5th wave projection and The Economist publishes the following linked article.

It is an interesting article about the global real estate market.  I expect going forward that more and more markets worldwide will increasingly move in tandem as the global economy becomes more integrated.  Real Estate economic fundamentals are said to be local to the city, county or state where the dirt and building is located, but this article fly's in the face of that generally accepted "conventional wisdom". Think Greenspan's speech last week to the Senate Finance Committee.

They say timing is everything. That has certainly been my experience.

-------------------------------------------------
In come the waves
June 16th 2005
From The Economist

The worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history. Prepare for the economic pain when it pops

NEVER before have real house prices risen so fast, for so long, in so many countries. Property markets have been frothing from America, Britain and Australia to France, Spain and China. Rising property prices helped to prop up the world economy after the stockmarket bubble burst in 2000. What if the housing boom now turns to bust?

According to estimates by The Economist, the total value of residential property in developed economies rose by more than $30 trillion over the past five years, to over $70 trillion, an increase equivalent to 100% of those countries' combined GDPs. Not only does this dwarf any previous house-price boom, it is larger than the global stockmarket bubble in the late 1990s (an increase over five years of 80% of GDP) or America's stockmarket bubble in the late 1920s (55% of GDP). In other words, it looks like the biggest bubble in history.

Click on the link above to read the entire article.

Crude Oil Weekly and Exxon Mobil Update

On May 28, 2005 I posted some charts of Exxon Mobil to update the stock's price patterns to date.

Well, it is time for another update.

I have included a weekly chart of crude oil in this post. Please review the above post first before looking at the following charts. Also included is a cycles prediction chart published by Dr. Stephen Rinehart on June 08, 2005. See my charts for more commentary.

Click on charts to enlarge.
   Crude_oil_weekly_june_17_2005_1    Xom_daily_june_17_2005   Crude_oil_inflation_adjusted_1970_to_junCrude_oil_cycle_prediction_thru_2012_1

June 18, 2005

KB Home - The Anatomy of a Long Term Dynamic Bull Market

First chart is a long term monthly. (1990-2005)
Second chart is a daily.
Third chart is a 120 minute day session only.
Fourth chart is a 120 minute all sessions.
Fifth chart is a 2 minute day session only.
Sixth chart is a 2 minute all sessions.

Please review the charts in order to get a feel for my tops down perspective. By the way, to really get something out of this post I highly recommend you read all of my bar chart analysis and learning to trade posts. The category links at the left margin will list all the posts in each category in chronological order.  Regular and dedicated readers will get the most out of this post.

Until next time good trading..............Market Monk

Click on charts to enlarge.
Kb_home_monthly_anatomy_of_a_long_term_d_1    Kb_home_daily_june_17_2005    Kb_home_120_min_day_session_june_17_2005    Kb_home_120_min_all_sessions_june_17_200    Kb_home_2_min_day_session_june_17_2005    Kb_home_2_min_all_session_june_17_2005

 

Commentary on monthly chart for easier reading:
The Anatomy of a Long Term Dynamic Bull Market

1. Primary long term price bottom is reached. (Only known with certainty in hindsight)

2. Initial rally generates a multi month Gann swing monthly bar buy signal. First higher bottom and higher high pattern forms on monthly bars.     Trend is now officially up.

3. Deep time consuming retracement of initial rally to the 75%, 78.6% or 87.5% level forms first primary higher bottom off primary low.     This correction shakes out weak longs and late buyers and impatient stock holders. Several years can pass during this period.

4. Rally to new recovery price highs.

5. Time consuming retracement of secondary rally to the 50% or 61.8% level forms.

6. Rally to new recovery highs. Preferably at this point the stock is at an all time high.

7. Retracement of third primary rally to the 38.2% level. This correction is shallower and less time consuming than the previous two corrections.

8. This is where the fun starts and the dynamic portion of the bull move begins. The stock quickly moves to new highs after the 38.2% correction. The stock must be at all time highs at this point.

9. In order for the dynamic bull market to last each correction must not be deeper than a 38.2% and preferably at 25% retracement from this point forward.

10. The last correction before the parabolic portion of the bull market is usually a 25% or 12.5% pullback.

11. The stock goes parabolic usually going up 100% from the last higher bottom at the 25% or 12.5% pullback.

12. The blow off portion of the parabolic last leg is fast and quick usually lasting no more than 3-5 months.

You must be watching the stock everyday very closely during the blow off last leg portion, preferably at least once per hour. Once the stock reaches the 100% price increase level from the last monthly bar low hit during the correction discussed in No.10 you must go full time watching the stock to have any chance of catching the top.

Look to sell the stock when it hits Fibonacci price projection levels and forms a multi hour Gann swing sell signal.  You must be ready and willing to get long again if the stock holds up and forms a shallow correction.  One of the most challenging parts of trading is catching the top of a parabolic bull move.  It requires a full time effort at the end to catch the top.  You will not be able to sell out or go short near the high if you are not watching the stock minute by minute at the end.

It takes years of training and experience to deeply understand the anatomy of a dynamic primary bull market.  Hopefully, this outline will help you in the future. By the way, knowing what to technically look for on price charts and trading it are two different skill sets. Analysis and trading require developing different skills that work together without conflict. Once one becomes a proficient analyst and trader the profits flow like water out of a facet. Total control of one's financial destiny has been reached.

Good Trading,
Market Monk

S&P; Major Indexes at All Time Highs

Yes, you read that right. 

The S&P 500 equal weighted index, the S&P 400 MidCap index and the S&P 600 SamllCap index all closed at ALL TIME HIGHS on Friday June 17, 2005. 

By the way, the Dow Jones EuroStoxx 50 index went to new recovery multi year highs last week.

The following charts are from The Chart Store. A great resource for anyone interested in historical charts.  I highly recommend you check out the site.

Click on the charts to enlarge.
Sp_500_equal_weighted_index_june_17_2005    Sp_400_mid_cap_june_17_2005    Sp_600_small_cap_june_17_2005

What the Future Will Bring by Raymond Kurzweil

Please take a few minutes to relive graduation commencement by listening to Mr. Kurzweil's speech via an audio link.

Enjoy,
Market Monk

What the Future Will Bring 
by Raymond Kurzweil

"Follow your passion," Ray Kurzweil advised graduates in a commencement address on May 21, 2005 at Worcester Polytechnic Institute, one of the nation's earliest technological universities.

"Creating knowledge is what will be most exciting in life. To create knowledge you have to have passion, so find a challenge that you can be passionate about and you can find the ideas to overcome that challenge." Kurzweil also described the three great coming revolutions-genetics, nanotechnology and robotics-and their implications for our lives ahead.

June 29, 2005

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish By Steve Jobs

This is the text of the Commencement address by Steve Jobs, CEO of Apple Computer and of Pixar Animation Studios, delivered on June 12, 2005, at Stanford.

"I am honored to be with you today at your commencement from one of the finest universities in the world. I never graduated from college. Truth be told, this is the closest I've ever gotten to a college graduation. Today I want to tell you three stories from my life. That's it. No big deal. Just three stories.

The first story is about connecting the dots.

I dropped out of Reed College after the first 6 months, but then stayed around as a drop-in for another 18 months or so before I really quit. So why did I drop out? It started before I was born. My biological mother was a young, unwed college graduate student, and she decided to put me up for adoption. She felt very strongly that I should be adopted by college graduates, so everything was all set for me to be adopted at birth by a lawyer and his wife. Except that when I popped out they decided at the last minute that they really wanted a girl. So my parents, who were on a waiting list, got a call in the middle of the night asking: "We have an unexpected baby boy; do you want him?" They said: "Of course." My biological mother later found out that my mother had never graduated from college and that my father had never graduated from high school. She refused to sign the final adoption papers. She only relented a few months later when my parents promised that I would someday go to college.

And 17 years later I did go to college. But I naively chose a college that was almost as expensive as Stanford, and all of my working-class parents' savings were being spent on my college tuition. After six months, I couldn't see the value in it. I had no idea what I wanted to do with my life and no idea how college was going to help me figure it out. And here I was spending all of the money my parents had saved their entire life. So I decided to drop out and trust that it would all work out OK. It was pretty scary at the time, but looking back it was one of the best decisions I ever made. The minute I dropped out I could stop taking the required classes that didn't interest me, and begin dropping in on the ones that looked interesting.

It wasn't all romantic. I didn't have a dorm room, so I slept on the floor in friends' rooms, I returned coke bottles for the 5¢ deposits to buy food with, and I would walk the 7 miles across town every Sunday night to get one good meal a week at the Hare Krishna temple. I loved it. And much of what I stumbled into by following my curiosity and intuition turned out to be priceless later on. Let me give you one example:

Reed College at that time offered perhaps the best calligraphy instruction in the country. Throughout the campus every poster, every label on every drawer, was beautifully hand calligraphed. Because I had dropped out and didn't have to take the normal classes, I decided to take a calligraphy class to learn how to do this. I learned about serif and san serif typefaces, about varying the amount of space between different letter combinations, about what makes great typography great. It was beautiful, historical, artistically subtle in a way that science can't capture, and I found it fascinating.

None of this had even a hope of any practical application in my life. But ten years later, when we were designing the first Macintosh computer, it all came back to me. And we designed it all into the Mac. It was the first computer with beautiful typography. If I had never dropped in on that single course in college, the Mac would have never had multiple typefaces or proportionally spaced fonts. And since Windows just copied the Mac, its likely that no personal computer would have them. If I had never dropped out, I would have never dropped in on this calligraphy class, and personal computers might not have the wonderful typography that they do. Of course it was impossible to connect the dots looking forward when I was in college. But it was very, very clear looking backwards ten years later.

Again, you can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something - your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life.

My second story is about love and loss.

I was lucky - I found what I loved to do early in life. Woz and I started Apple in my parents garage when I was 20. We worked hard, and in 10 years Apple had grown from just the two of us in a garage into a $2 billion company with over 4000 employees. We had just released our finest creation - the Macintosh - a year earlier, and I had just turned 30. And then I got fired. How can you get fired from a company you started? Well, as Apple grew we hired someone who I thought was very talented to run the company with me, and for the first year or so things went well. But then our visions of the future began to diverge and eventually we had a falling out. When we did, our Board of Directors sided with him. So at 30 I was out. And very publicly out. What had been the focus of my entire adult life was gone, and it was devastating.

I really didn't know what to do for a few months. I felt that I had let the previous generation of entrepreneurs down - that I had dropped the baton as it was being passed to me. I met with David Packard and Bob Noyce and tried to apologize for screwing up so badly. I was a very public failure, and I even thought about running away from the valley. But something slowly began to dawn on me - I still loved what I did. The turn of events at Apple had not changed that one bit. I had been rejected, but I was still in love. And so I decided to start over.

I didn't see it then, but it turned out that getting fired from Apple was the best thing that could have ever happened to me. The heaviness of being successful was replaced by the lightness of being a beginner again, less sure about everything. It freed me to enter one of the most creative periods of my life.

During the next five years, I started a company named NeXT, another company named Pixar, and fell in love with an amazing woman who would become my wife. Pixar went on to create the worlds first computer animated feature film, Toy Story, and is now the most successful animation studio in the world. In a remarkable turn of events, Apple bought NeXT, I retuned to Apple, and the technology we developed at NeXT is at the heart of Apple's current renaissance. And Laurene and I have a wonderful family together.

I'm pretty sure none of this would have happened if I hadn't been fired from Apple. It was awful tasting medicine, but I guess the patient needed it. Sometimes life hits you in the head with a brick. Don't lose faith. I'm convinced that the only thing that kept me going was that I loved what I did. You've got to find what you love. And that is as true for your work as it is for your lovers. Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle. As with all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. And, like any great relationship, it just gets better and better as the years roll on. So keep looking until you find it. Don't settle.

My third story is about death.

When I was 17, I read a quote that went something like: "If you live each day as if it was your last, someday you'll most certainly be right." It made an impression on me, and since then, for the past 33 years, I have looked in the mirror every morning and asked myself: "If today were the last day of my life, would I want to do what I am about to do today?" And whenever the answer has been "No" for too many days in a row, I know I need to change something.

Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important tool I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything - all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure - these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.

About a year ago I was diagnosed with cancer. I had a scan at 7:30 in the morning, and it clearly showed a tumor on my pancreas. I didn't even know what a pancreas was. The doctors told me this was almost certainly a type of cancer that is incurable, and that I should expect to live no longer than three to six months. My doctor advised me to go home and get my affairs in order, which is doctor's code for prepare to die. It means to try to tell your kids everything you thought you'd have the next 10 years to tell them in just a few months. It means to make sure everything is buttoned up so that it will be as easy as possible for your family. It means to say your goodbyes.

I lived with that diagnosis all day. Later that evening I had a biopsy, where they stuck an endoscope down my throat, through my stomach and into my intestines, put a needle into my pancreas and got a few cells from the tumor. I was sedated, but my wife, who was there, told me that when they viewed the cells under a microscope the doctors started crying because it turned out to be a very rare form of pancreatic cancer that is curable with surgery. I had the surgery and I'm fine now.

This was the closest I've been to facing death, and I hope its the closest I get for a few more decades. Having lived through it, I can now say this to you with a bit more certainty than when death was a useful but purely intellectual concept:

No one wants to die. Even people who want to go to heaven don't want to die to get there. And yet death is the destination we all share. No one has ever escaped it. And that is as it should be, because Death is very likely the single best invention of Life. It is Life's change agent. It clears out the old to make way for the new. Right now the new is you, but someday not too long from now, you will gradually become the old and be cleared away. Sorry to be so dramatic, but it is quite true.

Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma - which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of other's opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary.

When I was young, there was an amazing publication called The Whole Earth Catalog, which was one of the bibles of my generation. It was created by a fellow named Stewart Brand not far from here in Menlo Park, and he brought it to life with his poetic touch. This was in the late 1960's, before personal computers and desktop publishing, so it was all made with typewriters, scissors, and Polaroid cameras. It was sort of like Google in paperback form, 35 years before Google came along: it was idealistic, and overflowing with neat tools and great notions.

Stewart and his team put out several issues of The Whole Earth Catalog, and then when it had run its course, they put out a final issue. It was the mid-1970s, and I was your age. On the back cover of their final issue was a photograph of an early morning country road, the kind you might find yourself hitchhiking on if you were so adventurous. Beneath it were the words: "Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish." It was their farewell message as they signed off. Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish. And I have always wished that for myself. And now, as you graduate to begin anew, I wish that for you.

Stay Hungry. Stay Foolish.

Thank you all very much."

July 05, 2005

The Psychology Behind Common Investor Mistakes - Posted July 5

AAII.com Education

The Psychology Behind Common Investor Mistakes
By R. Douglas Van Eaton

R. Douglas Van Eaton, CFA, is a professor of finance in the College of Business Administration at the University of North Texas in Denton, Texas.

Behavioral finance, a relatively new area of financial research, has been receiving more and more attention from both individual and institutional investors. Behavioral finance combines results from psychological studies of decision-making with the more conventional decision-making models of standard finance theory.

By combining psychology and finance, researchers hope to better explain certain features of securities markets and investor behavior that appear irrational. Standard finance models assume that investors are unbiased and quite well informed. Investors are assumed to behave like Mr. Spock from Star Trek, taking in information, calculating probabilities and making the logically "correct" decision, given their preferences for risk and return. Behavioral finance introduces the possibility of less-than-perfectly-rational behavior caused by common psychological traits and mental mistakes.

Six common errors of perception and judgment, as identified by psychologists, are examined in this article. Each has implications for investment decision-making and investor behavior. An understanding of the psychological basis for these errors may help you avoid them and improve investment results. And in some cases, market-wide errors in perception or judgment can lead to pricing errors that individuals can exploit. Understanding the psychological basis for the success of momentum and contrarian strategies can help investors fine-tune these strategies to better exploit the opportunities that collective mental mistakes create.

Overconfidence

A good starting point for a list of psychological factors that affect decision-making is overconfidence. One form is overconfidence in our own abilities. A great number of psychological studies have demonstrated that test subjects regularly overestimate their abilities, especially relative to others. Studies also show that people tend to overestimate the accuracy of information. With respect to factual information, research subjects consistently overestimated the probability that their answer to a question was correct.

You might expect that professional stock analysts are less prone to psychological biases than non-professional investors and the general public. With regard to overconfidence, however, this is not the case. A leading researcher found that when analysts are 80% certain that a stock is going to go up, they are right about 40% of the time.

How does overconfidence affect investment behavior?

Models of financial markets with overconfident investors predict that trading will be excessive. One recent study used a creative approach to see if overconfidence is related to high levels of trading. Many psychological studies have shown that men are more prone to overconfidence than women. If overconfidence causes overtrading, then men should exhibit their greater tendency toward overconfidence by trading more. The results of the study show exactly that-for a large sample of households, men traded 45% more than women, and single men traded 67% more than single women over the period of the study.

Is the active trading that overconfidence leads to actually 'excessive,' causing lower performance? A study of the trading activity and returns for a large national discount brokerage suggests that it is. For all of the households, returns averaged 16.4% over the period. However, those that traded the most averaged 11.4% in annual returns, significantly less than for an account with average turnover. Over the same period, the S&P 500 returned 17.9% on average.

What, if anything, can investors do about the general tendency toward overconfidence?

You can profit from this research only by heeding its message: Trade less. This is perhaps more easily said than done. Placing too much confidence in an analyst's buy/sell recommendation or earnings projection may lead to excessive trading even without any illusions about your own stock-picking abilities.

Other aspects of overconfidence are more subtle. People prefer to bet on the flip of a coin if it has not already been tossed. Psychologists relate this to a tendency for people to believe that they either have some ability to foretell the future or some control over the outcomes of future events.

Another behavior that is related to overconfidence in our abilities is the tendency to treat historical information as irrelevant and to place much more importance on current circumstances as a determinant of future outcomes. The psychological basis for such a tendency is called "historical determinism," the belief that historical events could or should have been predictable given the circumstances of the past. For investors, this translates to a belief that market events, such as the 1929 crash, could not have developed any other way. Only if we determine that current circumstances mirror those of some past time period will we be inclined to give history its due. Our collective social memory may tend to emphasize things that are seen as directly causing past events, and exclude circumstances that suggest a different outcome. The cry of "this time it's different" has a special place in investment lore. It is perilous to ignore stock market history based on a belief that present circumstances make historical market performance irrelevant to current decisions.

Fear of Regret

A second mental error that can affect decision-making is an excessive focus on the potential feelings of regret at having made a poor decision (or a 'good' decision that turns out poorly). This type of error is rooted in most individuals' (sometimes extreme) dislike for admitting they are wrong. The tendency to feel distress at having made a mistake that is out of proportion to the size and nature of the error is what psychologists label the "pain of regret." The fear of regret manifests itself when the potential regret from making an error has an influence on our decision-making that is out of proportion to the actual penalty an error would impose. Some behavioral models are constructed around the idea that people make decisions so as to minimize the potential regret that may result.

The fear of regret influences behavior when individuals procrastinate in making decisions. Studies have shown that people will postpone a decision, claiming that they are awaiting an upcoming information release, even when the new information will not change their decision (called the disjunction effect by psychologists). The fear of regret can play an important role in our investment decision-making in other ways as well. In stock transactions, acting so as to avoid the pain of regret can lead to holding losing stocks too long and selling winners too soon. When stocks go down in value, investors seem to delay the selling of those stocks, even though they likely have not met expectations. Selling the position would finalize the error and the pain of regret is delayed by not accepting the purchase as an error. Winning stocks, on the other hand, contain the seeds of regret. The sale of appreciated shares removes the possibility that those shares will fall in value along with the potential for regret should this occur before the shares are sold. Besides avoiding poor decisions from too much focus on the fear of regret, you may also be able to improve performance by exploiting pricing patterns that result from behavior rooted in the fear of regret. A general tendency among investors to hold on to losers too long will slow the price declines, since less shares are offered for sale. Similarly, a tendency to sell winners too soon will increase the number of shares for sale and slow price increases. Both of these effects can enhance opportunities for investors.

Strategies based on price momentum and earnings momentum seek to exploit the fact that price changes occur slowly, over a sometimes prolonged period of time. Studies show that stocks that have performed the best (or worst) over six months to a year are likely to remain good (or poor) performers over the next year. There has been considerable research over the years showing that firms that announce surprisingly good (or poor) quarterly earnings tend to outperform (or underperform) for up to a year after the earnings announcement.

While the success of momentum strategies may also be a result of other psychologically driven behaviors, a tendency to sell winners too soon and losers too late will, in general, make price adjustments to a new equilibrium level a more drawn-out process than it would otherwise be. Investors can purchase stocks of firms that are in an established uptrend, with both earnings and price momentum, and hold them until the trend has reversed. For stocks that show a negative trend in earnings and price, the message here is: Get out. The deterioration will likely be longer and more severe than you think. Such discipline should reduce the tendency to sell winners too soon and hold losers too long, and improve investment results.

Cognitive Dissonance

A psychological characteristic that is related to the fear of regret is the desire to avoid cognitive dissonance. This psychological trait is one you might remember from Psychology 101. Without the jargon, the reference is to a desire to avoid believing two conflicting things. If one of the beliefs is supported by emotional involvement or attachment, the brain will attempt to avoid or discount a conflicting belief and seek out support for the preferred belief.

In the classic study of this characteristic, researchers found that once a person had made a decision and purchased a particular automobile, they would avoid ads for competing models and seek out ads for the model purchased. Avoiding the pain of regret may be the basis for this behavior. One way to avoid regretting the purchase decision is to (irrationally) filter the information received (or believed) after the decision has been made. Alternatively, people can minimize the importance of subsequent information that would call their original decision into question, if the truth can't be avoided or denied. Beliefs that we wish to maintain are defended by many mechanisms, even if the strong desire to maintain existing beliefs has a less-than-rational basis.

How can you adjust for the tendency to avoid or deny new, conflicting information? As in other areas, investment discipline can help. By writing down the reasons for purchasing a stock and re-evaluating their validity over time as dispassionately as possible, investors can force themselves to maintain a selling discipline. If the reasons for purchase no longer hold and the share price indicates deteriorating fundamentals, admitting a mistake may often be the prudent thing to do. Another disciplined approach is to set a time limit for a newly purchased stock to perform as expected. If, for example, the earnings and/or price expectations have not been met after three months, then the stock must go. While this is not necessarily a good rule for value investors (since that approach often requires longer holding periods before expectations are met), it can help those who pursue a growth strategy to avoid holding losing positions over a prolonged period of price deterioration.

Anchoring

The three psychological characteristics discussed so far are all based, to some extent, on feelings and emotions. But some decision-making errors result from mental shortcuts that are a normal part of the way we think. The brain uses mental shortcuts to simplify the very complex tasks of information processing and decision-making. Anchoring is the psychologists' term for one shortcut the brain uses. The brain approaches complex problems by selecting an initial reference point (the anchor) and making small changes as additional information is received and processed. This reduces a complex problem, evaluating all information as a whole as new information is received, to the simpler task of revising conclusions as each new bit of information is received.

In the case of bargaining, a salesman may begin with a high price to bias upward the final price. Research shows that the listing prices for homes influence estimates of their values. The listing price apparently serves as an anchor, even though it does not necessarily contain relevant information about the home's value. Recent prices or recent earnings performance may serve as a similar psychological anchor for investors, and may have predictable effects on subsequent returns.

Understanding the role of anchoring in the decision-making process can help you avoid some investment pitfalls. "Bottom fishing," the practice of buying stocks that have fallen considerably in hopes of getting them cheaply, can be quite hazardous to your wealth. The motivation behind this strategy is similar to the concept of anchoring. A higher recent price is taken as evidence of value, so that the new price seems cheap.

The old pros say, "Don't bottom fish," but they also say "Buy on weakness." What's the difference? If you have evaluated a stock and determined that you would like to accumulate a position, then you can and should time your buys to take advantage of the ebbs and flows in the market and price weakness in the stock when it goes below your buy price. If, on the other hand, a sharp price decline lies behind the decision to buy and a recent higher price looms large in the stock's initial attraction, beware—the odds are against you.

One effect of anchoring on investment decisions is similar to that of the fear of regret; losing positions will be held too long and improving stocks will be sold too soon. In each case the effect of a recent price as a psychological anchor in the complex process of stock valuation will slow the revision of valuation estimates. Losers will appear cheap and winners will seem to have gotten ahead of themselves. As with the fear of regret, anchoring can slow the process of revaluation and contribute to the gains from momentum strategies. In general, the less clear the underpinnings of a stock's value, the greater the importance of an anchor in the process of establishing value. The valuations of highly speculative stocks, such as Internet high flyers without visible earnings, will likely be more influenced by recent prices, than those of stocks with visible and predictable earnings.

Representativeness

Another shortcut that the brain uses to reduce the complexity of thought is called representativeness by psychologists. This is an assumption the brain makes that things that share similar qualities are quite alike. Classifications are made based on a limited number of shared qualities.

One example of representativeness in our thinking is the tendency to classify people as either "good" or "bad" based on some short list of qualities. When we do this, we gain in simplicity and speed, but at the expense of ignoring the much more complex reality of the situation.

The effect of representativeness in investment decisions can be seen when certain shared qualities are used to classify stocks. Two companies that report poor results may both be classified as poor companies, with bad management and unexciting prospects. This may not be true, however. A tendency to label stocks as either bad-to-own or good-to-own based on a limited number of characteristics will lead to errors when other relevant characteristics are not considered.

Representativeness may also be related to the tendency of stock prices to reach extremes of valuation. If poor earnings and share price performance has a stock branded as "bad," representativeness will tend to delay the reclassification of the stock as one investors would like to own. On the other hand, "good" stocks may continue to be classified as such by investors well after the firm's prospects for either earnings or price appreciation have diminished significantly.

Contrarian or value strategies seek to exploit just such erroneous classifications. If a firm has been classified by most investors as a bad one and the stock as a loser, initial changes in the company's outlook may leave the classification in investors' minds essentially unchanged. This collective classification can lead to stocks being unloved and underpriced. A value investor seeks to buy the stocks others classify as "bad," ideally at the time when the greatest majority holds this view. When fundamentals have started to deteriorate but the majority of investors have not yet reclassified the stock in their minds, it is often an ideal time to sell.

Myopic Risk Aversion

The term "myopic risk aversion" refers to the tendency of decision makers to be shortsighted in their choices about gambles and other activities that involve potential losses. Much research has examined what types of gambles people will accept, the effects of how the possible outcomes of the gamble are presented, and whether people make consistent choices.

As an example of how these results can apply to investment decision-making, consider an investor saving for retirement. Each year's investment in equities rather than a lower-risk alternative can be viewed as a single gamble. Unlike casino gambling, however, the expected payoff is positive, and the investor has the opportunity to invest in equities over a period of many years.

Two leading researchers in behavioral finance have concluded that investors in this situation tend to hold less than the optimal amount of equities because they place too much emphasis on the potential loss from a single year's investment in equities. They term this shortsightedness myopic risk aversion.

In one study, investors in a company retirement plan chose larger equity allocations after they were shown the actual results of investing in equities over many different 20-year periods. The research suggests that if investors focus on the distribution of outcomes for the whole period, they are more likely to make the correct decision.

Summary

A better understanding of the psychology of investor mistakes can reduce their effects on investment decisions. Here is a list of the most common psychological effects, and how you can reduce their impact and incorporate them into your own investment decisions:

Overconfidence: Trade less, especially in taxable accounts. In terms of probabilities, you are not as good at investment decisions as you think you are. Discount the opinions of analysts, who tend to go to extremes, either overly confident or overly pessimistic.

Fear of regret/pain of regret: Don't let the prospect of regret at making a decision that turns out poorly have disproportionate weight in your decisions. Convince yourself that unrealized losses are equivalent to realized losses.

Cognitive dissonance: Seek out contrary opinion. Research doesn't stop when a purchase is made. Strive to identify your mistakes as early as possible and take pride in the ability to do so.

Anchoring: Be aware of how recent prices, earnings and growth rates can serve as psychological anchors in thought processes. Avoid price-driven "bottom fishing."

Representativeness: Step back and look at the whole picture on a stock. Don't place too much emphasis on a few qualities that good stocks or loser stocks share. Winners turn into losers and vice versa, so be open to their changing nature.

Myopic risk aversion: Long-term investors should make asset allocation decisions based on possible multi-year outcomes and not focus on single-period return possibilities.

R. Douglas Van Eaton, CFA, is a professor of finance in the College of Business Administration at the University of North Texas in Denton, Texas.

(c) AAII Journal

To All Regular Readers and Bystanders - UPDATED July 2

(This post is forward dated to keep it on top of the most recent posts list)
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I started this blog on March 21, 2005.

At this moment it is 05:33 a.m. (- 5 GMT) Wednesday June 08, 2005.

Over the last 79 days I have personally grown more than any other 79 day period during my entire life.

If you have any interest in truly understanding the growth I have experienced, what this blog is about and what the heck a trading campaign is about then I highly recommend that you go to the main page and start reading this blog from day one on March 21, 2005.

To all the readers who have already done that I would like to suggest you ask yourself this question - Are you ready to take yourself to the next level?

Only you know if you are truly ready in mind, body and spirit.

When your divine consciousness gives you the green light do not waiver, do not hesitate and do not turn away in fear. Take the first step to the next level with conviction, love, determination and joy. For the experience you are about to have is what conscious life is all about. Never turn back and always take each step in a positive direction. You have nothing to lose and everything to gain by pushing yourself to grow, mature and prosper. The beautiful part about trading for yourself is the tremendous trust that is required.

UPDATE Saturday July 2, 2005 5:00 a.m. (-5 GMT)
It is time for me to go to my next level. I am at the first stage of developing a proprietary trading team of five traders that will become equity partners in a private money hedge fund. As a consequence, I will not be posting to the blog regularly.  If I do post it will only be on the weekend starting several weeks from now.

I wish you all the best in your personal journey as a trader and as a powerful human being. I leave you with some eternal words of wisdom to ponder.......

 

Once you realize that the road is the goal and that you are always on the road, not to reach a goal, but to enjoy its beauty and its wisdom, life ceases to be a task and becomes natural and simple, in itself an ecstasy. 
-- Sri Nisargadatta Maharaj

The best day of your life is the one on which you decide your life is your own. No apologies or excuses. No one to lean on, rely on, or blame. The gift is yours - it is an amazing journey - and you alone are responsible for the quality of it. This is the day your life really begins.
-- Unknown

The most important thing I have learned is trust. Trust in the knowledge that I do have the ability to make choices and trust that living in the moment will take me through my decision cycle quite naturally.
-- Lynda Standley Richardson