ince the start of Pakistan's current political crisis on November 3, there are still few signs that opposition forces in the country will be able to form an effective political platform to unseat President Pervez Musharraf. Although faint signs of cooperation appeared on November 15 when two of Pakistan's most popular politicians -- former prime ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif -- spoke of a "joint struggle" to unseat Musharraf, since then the two leaders and the parties which they represent continue to pursue independent strategies. The situation is unfolding quickly, as the country is steering toward national elections on January 8, of which the winning party will select a prime minister who will take power alongside President Musharraf.

The most recent significant change to the political equation was the return of Nawaz Sharif to the scene on November 25. Sharif, one of Pakistan's most popular politicians, previously served as prime minister from 1990-1993 and from 1997-1999, at the end of which he was removed from power in a coup by the current president, General Pervez Musharraf. Unlike Bhutto, Sharif is popular in nationalist and religious circles, in addition to military and intelligence ones. This support derives from his previous rule as a religious conservative, which was demonstrated by his support for the Taliban in the 1990s, and for his popular decision to test a nuclear weapon and declare Pakistan as a nuclear power despite U.S. protestations.

These very factors which make him popular among Pakistanis make him somewhat of a wild card to the United States. For instance, his return to Pakistan was orchestrated by Saudi Arabia, which has been a strong force behind Pakistan's Salafi/Wahhabi religious radicalism. Furthermore, one day after his return to Pakistan, Sharif said that the country should reassess its approach in the war on terrorism and consider meeting with militants in the North-West Frontier Province and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.

Sharif has ruled out governing with Musharraf and threatened to boycott the January elections unless Musharraf ends emergency rule, releases jailed opposition members and restores the judiciary. Furthermore, while Sharif has said that he is "trying to find common ground" with Bhutto, the two politicians are rivals and it is not clear whether they consider the situation dire enough yet to warrant a joint platform. If that were to occur, Musharraf's political days would be numbered.

The second major player is Benazir Bhutto. She dominates the political scene in Sindh province and is also popular in Punjab. Bhutto has support in Washington and London, and it appears that the United States and the United Kingdom were important actors behind Bhutto's return to Pakistan on October 18, 2007, after almost ten years of exile. Bhutto's earlier decision to forge a political deal with Musharraf -- which was scuttled when he declared emergency rule -- drew extensive criticism from other opposition forces. Yet, following Musharraf's declaration of emergency rule and his decision to place Bhutto under house arrest, she declared that she would not work with Musharraf politically.

Nevertheless, despite rumors of Bhutto aligning with Sharif against Musharraf, there has been no concrete movement in that direction and she remains an independent actor. In fact, some of the latest reports coming out of Pakistan suggest that Bhutto is still conducting dialogue with Musharraf and will not boycott the January elections. The possibility still exists that Bhutto will strike a deal with Musharraf, isolating Sharif.

The bottom line is that the actors involved in Pakistan's current political fight are still jostling for position. Musharraf appears to have gained an edge because he managed to crawl out of a deep political crevasse, at least temporarily; indeed, the military does not appear to be withdrawing its support for him. After recognizing the growing voices calling for his ouster, he moderated his stance by setting a date for elections and stepping down as head of the armed forces; this took the wind out of the opposition's sails. The one development that would likely lead to his dismissal -- an alliance between Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party and Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz -- is still a distant possibility.

Sharif remains the wild card in the political equation, and he retains the ability to disturb Musharraf's chances for survival. Although it is unlikely that Sharif can mount an effective resistance on his own, he still maintains contacts in Pakistan's military and intelligence circles, and he also has broad public support. These assets could conceivably be used to threaten Musharraf, especially if Bhutto decides to form a coalition with Sharif.

The final link in the triad of leaders is Benazir Bhutto, whose fate remains uncertain. She has the option of becoming increasingly irrelevant, or acting as a spoiling factor for either of the other two leaders; the balance of power will be altered depending on whether she joins Sharif or Musharraf.

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