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I.
Background
II.
Nursing Supply Model
III.
Nursing Demand Model
IV.
Assessing the Adequacy of Future Supply
V.
Limitations of the Models and Areas for Future Research
VI.
References
Exhibits
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IV. Assessing
the Adequacy of Future Supply
Comparing
the baseline supply and demand projections suggests that
the U.S. had a shortage of approximately 168,000 FTE RNs
in 2003, implying that the current supply would have to
increase by 9 percent to meet estimated demand. By 2020
the national shortage is projected to increase to more than
1 million FTE RNs (Exhibit 23), if current trends continue,
suggesting that only 64 percent of projected demand will
be met (Exhibit 24).
The
supply and demand projections most likely bound the range
of the actual number of FTE RNs who will be employed over
the projection horizon. As the nursing shortage becomes
more severe, market and political forces will create pressures
that will increase supply, decrease demand, or both.
As illustrated
in the appendix, State-level shortages will vary substantially
over time and across States. As the nurse shortage in any
particular State becomes too severe, market forces will
create financial incentives for nurses to migrate to States
with more severe shortages.
Exhibit
23. Projected U.S. FTE RN Shortages, 2000 to 2020
Exhibit
24. Projected U.S. FTE RN Supply, Demand, and Shortages
|
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
2020 |
Supply |
1,890,700 |
1,942,500 |
1,941,200 |
1,886,100 |
1,808,000 |
Demand |
2,001,500 |
2,161,300 |
2,347,000 |
2,569,800 |
2,824,900 |
Shortage |
(110,800) |
(218,800) |
(405,800) |
(683,700) |
(1,016,900) |
Supply
÷ Demand |
94% |
90% |
83% |
73% |
64% |
Demand
Shortfall |
6% |
10% |
17% |
27% |
36% |
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