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How close were U.S. Presidential Elections?



This page answers the question:
What is the SMALLEST number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

POPULAR VOTE
or
ELECTORAL VOTE?

Are you considering the Popular Vote or Electoral Vote?

Both! You can not correctly analyze U.S. Presidential Elections without taking both methods into account. The popular vote tells you if the candidate won the state or not, while the electoral vote tells you how much that state was 'worth' in that election.

It is possible to win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote, and therefore the election. It is also possible to win the election with less than 50% of the voting population. Both of these scenarios, as well as others, have happened in actual elections.

There have been 12 Presidential elections that were decided by less than a 1% margin; meaning if less than 1% of the voters in certain states had changed their mind to the other candidate the outcome of the entire election would have been different.

That is what this page solves. What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

Corrections, comments, suggestions? Send me an e-mail
Thank you, Mike Sheppard
[Personal Homepage]

2008
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2008

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 MCCAINOBAMA Change of votes MCCAINOBAMA Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
North Carolina21096980212339015 6847 21165451521165430 4258507
Indiana13429820136899211 13006 13559881113559860 2741186
New Hampshire31693703845914 33828 35076543507630 707648
Iowa67750808182407 70367 74787577478730 1516072
Florida39393800414395727 102289 40416692740416680 8144225
Ohio25018550270868520 103416 26052712026052690 5295486
Virginia17260530195837013 116159 18422121318422110 3716763
All Other States 173 268 173 268 
TOTAL 173 365 445912 270 268 26379887
 OBAMA WINS MCCAIN WINS 
  2008 Election (Actual)   2008 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 2%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 2008

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
32
By percent of Voters needed:
18
By votes per electorate needed:
38

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 2008 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections




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2004

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 BUSHKERRY Change of votes BUSHKERRY Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
New Mexico37693053709420 2995 37393503739375 756304
Iowa75195777418980 5030 74692707469287 1506908
Colorado1101255910017320 49762 1051493010514949 2130330
All Other States 265 252 265 252 
TOTAL 286 252 57787 265 273 4393542
 BUSH WINS KERRY WINS 
  2004 Election (Actual)   2004 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 1%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 2004

Note: Actual elector vote was 286-251-1 (see here). While it is true that had Kerry won Ohio, he would have won the election, he would have needed 59,301 voters to switch their vote from Bush to win the state. That number is more than the 57,787 votes needed to affect the election that's listed here.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
20
By percent of Voters needed:
15
By votes per electorate needed:
30

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 2004 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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2000

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 BUSHGORE Change of votes BUSHGORE Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Florida29127902529122530 269 29125210291252225 5963110
All Other States 246 267 246 267 
TOTAL 271 267 269 246 292 5963110
 BUSH WINS GORE WINS 
  2000 Election (Actual)   2000 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 1%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 2000

Note: Actual elector vote was 271-266-1 (see here). While the 2000 election was not the closest in either popular vote or electoral vote, it was the closest in US history in terms of the smallest popular vote difference needed to affect the election. Compare with the election of 1876.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
1
By percent of Voters needed:
1
By votes per electorate needed:
1

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 2000 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1996

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 DOLECLINTON Change of votes DOLECLINTON Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Nevada19924402039744 2366 20161042016080 464279
Kentucky62328306366148 6666 62994986299480 1388708
Arizona62207306532888 15608 63768186376800 1404405
New Mexico23275102734955 20373 25312452531220 556074
Tennessee863530090914611 22809 886339118863370 1894105
New Hampshire19653202462144 24842 22137442213720 499175
Oregon53815206496417 55745 59389775938960 1377760
Iowa49264406202587 63808 55645275564500 1234075
Missouri8900160102593511 67960 957976119579750 2158065
Ohio18598830214822221 144170 20040532120040520 4534434
Florida22445360254687025 151168 23957042523957020 5303794
All Other States 159 268 159 268 
TOTAL 159 379 575515 270 268 20814874
 CLINTON WINS DOLE WINS 
  1996 Election (Actual)   1996 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 3%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1996

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
35
By percent of Voters needed:
29
By votes per electorate needed:
39

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1996 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1992

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 BUSHCLINTON Change of votes BUSHCLINTON Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
New Hampshire20248402090404 3279 20576342057610 537215
Montana14420701545073 5151 14935831493560 410583
Nevada17582801891484 6661 18248941824870 506318
Georgia9952520100896613 6858 10021101310021080 2321133
Delaware10231301260543 11871 11418431141830 289620
Hawaii13682201793104 21245 15806741580650 372842
Kentucky61717806651048 23964 64114286411400 1492900
Colorado56285006296818 33416 59626685962650 1569180
New Jersey13568650143620615 39671 13965361513965350 3343594
Louisiana73338608159719 41293 77467997746780 1790017
Ohio18943100198494221 45317 19396272119396250 4939964
Tennessee841300093352111 46111 887411118874100 1982638
All Other States 168 267 168 267 
TOTAL 168 370 284837 271 267 19556004
 CLINTON WINS BUSH WINS 
  1992 Election (Actual)   1992 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 2%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1992

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
29
By percent of Voters needed:
16
By votes per electorate needed:
31

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1992 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1988

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 BUSHDUKAKIS Change of votes BUSHDUKAKIS Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Vermont12433131157750 4279 12005201200543 243333
South Dakota16541531455600 9928 15548701554883 312991
Montana19041241689360 10739 17967301796754 365674
New Mexico27034152444970 12923 25741802574205 521287
Delaware13963931086470 15497 12414201241443 249891
North Dakota16655931277390 19411 14714801471503 297261
Maryland876167108263040 24932 851235085123610 1714358
Maine30713142435690 31782 27534902753514 555035
Connecticut75024186765840 36829 71341207134138 1443394
Missouri10849531110016190 41668 10432850104328711 2093228
Illinois23109392422159400 47500 22634390226344024 4559120
Pennsylvania23000872521949440 52572 22475150224751625 4536251
Colorado72817786214530 53363 67481406748168 1372394
California50549174747022330 176343 48785740487857647 9887064
All Other States 268 112 268 112 
TOTAL 426 112 537766 268 270 28151281
 BUSH WINS DUKAKIS WINS 
  1988 Election (Actual)   1988 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 2%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1988

Note: Actual elector vote was 426-111-1 (see here).

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
33
By percent of Voters needed:
23
By votes per electorate needed:
33

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1988 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1984

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 REAGANMONDALE Change of votes REAGANMONDALE Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Rhode Island21208041971060 7488 20459202045944 410492
Hawaii18505041471540 18949 16610101661034 335846
Vermont1358653957300 20068 11579701157983 234561
Delaware15219031016560 25268 12692201269243 254572
Massachusetts13109361312396060 35666 12752700127527213 2559453
Alaska1383773620070 38186 10019101001933 207605
West Virginia40548363281250 38680 36680303668056 735742
Wyoming1332413533700 39936 933050933063 188968
Montana23245041467420 42855 18959501895974 384377
Maryland879918107879350 45992 833926083392710 1675873
Nevada1887704916550 48558 14021201402134 286667
Iowa70308886056200 48735 65435306543558 1319805
New Mexico30710152017690 52667 25443402544365 514370
Maine33650042145150 60993 27550702755084 553144
Oregon68570075364790 74611 61108906110907 1226527
Wisconsin1198800119958470 101477 10973230109732411 2212016
Washington1051670108073520 122160 929510092951210 1883910
Tennessee990212117117140 139250 850962085096411 1711993
Pennsylvania25843232522281310 178097 24062260240622825 4844903
Georgia1068722127066280 181048 887674088767612 1776093
New York36647633631196090 272578 33921850339218736 6806810
Illinois27071032420864990 310303 23968000239680224 4819088
California54670094739225190 772246 46947630469476547 9505423
All Other States 268 13 268 13 
TOTAL 525 13 2675811 268 270 44448238
 REAGAN WINS MONDALE WINS 
  1984 Election (Actual)   1984 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 7%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1984

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
43
By percent of Voters needed:
36
By votes per electorate needed:
43

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1984 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1980

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 REAGANCARTER Change of votes REAGANCARTER Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Massachusetts10576311410538020 1915 10557160105571714 2524298
Tennessee787761107830510 2356 785405078540710 1617616
Arkansas40316463980410 2562 40060204006036 837582
Delaware11125231057540 2750 10850201085043 235668
Mississippi44108974292810 5905 43518404351867 892620
Vermont945983818910 6354 882440882453 213207
South Carolina44120784275600 6824 43438304343848 890083
Alabama65419296367300 8732 64546006454629 1341929
Maine23852242209740 8775 22974702297494 523011
Kentucky63527496164170 9429 62584506258469 1294627
North Carolina915018138756350 19692 895326089532713 1855833
Louisiana792853107084530 42201 750652075065410 1548591
Wisconsin1088845119815840 53631 10352140103521511 2273221
New York28938314127283720 82730 28111010281110241 6201959
Michigan19152252116615320 126847 17883780178837921 3909725
Pennsylvania22618722719375400 162167 20997050209970727 4561501
Illinois23580492619814130 188319 21697300216973226 4749721
All Other States 267 49 267 49 
TOTAL 489 49 731189 267 271 35471192
 REAGAN WINS CARTER WINS 
  1980 Election (Actual)   1980 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 3%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1980

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
38
By percent of Voters needed:
25
By votes per electorate needed:
32

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1980 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1976

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 FORDCARTER Change of votes FORDCARTER Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Hawaii14000301473754 3687 14369041436880 291301
Ohio20005050201162125 5559 20060642520060620 4111873
All Other States 241 268 241 268 
TOTAL 241 297 9246 270 268 4403174
 CARTER WINS FORD WINS 
  1976 Election (Actual)   1976 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 1%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1976

Note: Actual elector vote was 297-240-1 (see here). It has been reported that Carter won the election with the states of Delaware and Ohio However, Hawaii was closer in votes than Delaware and also carried enough electoral votes, with Ohio, to affect the outcome. Had Ford won Hawaii and Ohio he would have won the election.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
11
By percent of Voters needed:
6
By votes per electorate needed:
14

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1976 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1972

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 NIXONMCGOVERN Change of votes NIXONMCGOVERN Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Alaska553493329670 11192 441570441593 95219
Rhode Island22038341946450 12870 20751302075154 415808
South Dakota16647641399450 13266 15321001532114 307415
Delaware1403573922830 24038 11631901163213 235516
Vermont1171493681740 24488 926610926623 186947
Nevada1157503660160 24868 908820908843 181766
Wyoming1004643443580 28054 724100724123 145570
Montana18397641201970 31890 15208601520874 317603
Hawaii16886541014090 33729 13513601351384 270274
North Dakota17410931003840 36863 13724601372473 280514
Oregon48668663927600 46964 43972204397246 927946
New Mexico23560641410840 47262 18834401883464 385931
Maine25645841605840 47938 20852002085224 417271
Minnesota898269108023460 47962 850307085030810 1741652
New Hampshire21372441164350 48645 16507901650804 334055
Idaho1993844808260 59280 14010401401064 310379
Wisconsin989430118101740 89629 899801089980311 1852890
Iowa70620784962060 105001 60120606012078 1225944
Connecticut81076385554980 127633 68313006831318 1384277
Washington83713595683340 134401 70273407027359 1470847
South Carolina47842781892700 144579 33384803338498 677880
Maryland829305105057810 161763 667542066754410 1353812
Michigan19617212114594350 251144 17105770171057921 3490325
Illinois27881792619134720 437354 23508250235082626 4723236
California46020964534758470 563125 40389710403897245 8367862
New York41927784129510840 620848 35719300357193241 7161830
All Other States 268 17 268 17 
TOTAL 521 17 3174786 268 270 38262769
 NIXON WINS MCGOVERN WINS 
  1972 Election (Actual)   1972 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 9%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1972

Note: Actual elector vote was 520-17-1 (see here).

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
44
By percent of Voters needed:
42
By votes per electorate needed:
44

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1972 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1968

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 NIXONHUMPHREY Change of votes NIXONHUMPHREY Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Alaska376003354110 1095 365050365063 83035
Delaware967143891940 3761 929530929553 214367
Nevada731883605980 6296 668920668943 154218
Vermont851423702550 7444 776980776993 161404
Missouri811932127914440 10245 801687080168912 1809502
Wisconsin809997127488040 30597 779400077940112 1691538
New Jersey13254671712642060 30631 12948360129483717 2875395
Ohio17910142617005860 45215 17457990174580126 3959698
All Other States 223 191 223 191 
TOTAL 302 191 135284 268 270 10949157
 NIXON WINS HUMPHREY WINS 
Margin: < 1%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1968

Note: Actual elector vote was 301-191-46 (see here). Although Wallace received 46 electoral votes, and won 5 states, the smallest change of popular votes needed to affect the election (listed above) did not need any votes to be changed from his count, so he is not listed in the table. Compare to the 1924 election.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
25
By percent of Voters needed:
4
By votes per electorate needed:
26

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1968 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1964

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 GOLDWATERJOHNSON Change of votes GOLDWATERJOHNSON Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Idaho14355701489204 2682 14623941462380 292477
Wyoming619980807183 9361 713593713570 142716
Alaska229300443293 10700 336303336290 67259
Nevada560940793393 11623 677173677160 135433
Nebraska27684703073075 15231 29207852920760 584154
South Dakota13010801630104 16452 14656041465580 293118
Utah18068202196284 19474 20015642001540 400310
North Dakota10820701497844 20789 12899641289950 258389
Florida905941094854014 21300 927241149272400 1854481
Delaware7807801227043 22314 10039231003900 201320
Montana11303201642464 25608 13864041386380 278628
Vermont5494201081273 26593 815353815340 163089
New Mexico13183801940174 31090 16292841629270 327615
Arkansas24326403141976 35467 27873162787300 560426
Virginia481334055803812 38353 519687125196850 1042267
Kansas38657904640287 38725 42530474253030 857901
New Hampshire10402901820654 39019 14304841430460 286094
Oklahoma41266505198348 53585 46625084662490 932499
Tennessee508965063494711 62992 571957115719550 1143946
North Carolina624844080013913 87648 712492137124910 1424983
Colorado29676704760246 89629 38639663863950 776986
Oregon28277905010176 109120 39189963918970 786305
Indiana9111180117084813 129866 10409841310409820 2091606
Iowa44914807330309 141942 59109095910880 1184539
Texas9585660166318525 352310 13108762513108750 2626811
California28791080417187740 646385 35254934035254920 7057586
All Other States 52 268 52 268 
TOTAL 52 486 2058258 270 268 25770938
 JOHNSON WINS GOLDWATER WINS 
  1964 Election (Actual)   1964 Election (Theoretical)  
Margin: < 8%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1964

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
42
By percent of Voters needed:
40
By votes per electorate needed:
42

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1964 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1960

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 NIXONKENNEDY Change of votes NIXONKENNEDY Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Hawaii922950924103 58 923533923520 184705
New Mexico15373301560274 1148 15488141548790 311107
Nevada523870548803 1247 536343536330 107267
Illinois23689880237784627 4430 23734182723734160 4757409
Missouri962221097220113 4991 967212139672100 1934422
All Other States 220 267 220 267 
TOTAL 220 317 11874 270 267 7294910
 KENNEDY WINS NIXON WINS 
Margin: < 1%

COMPARE: ELECTORAL TIE - 1960

Note: Actual elector vote was 303-219-15 (see here).

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
12
By percent of Voters needed:
3
By votes per electorate needed:
10

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1960 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1956

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 EISENHOWERSTEVENSON Change of votes EISENHOWERSTEVENSON Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Tennessee462288114565070 2891 459397045939811 939404
Nevada560493406400 7705 483440483453 96689
Delaware980573794210 9319 887380887403 177988
Wyoming745733495540 12510 620630620643 124127
Montana15493341162380 19348 13558501355864 271171
New Mexico14678841060980 20346 12644201264444 253926
South Dakota17156941222880 24641 14692801469294 293857
North Dakota1567664967420 30013 12675301267554 253991
Idaho16697941058680 30556 13642301364244 272989
Rhode Island22581941617900 32015 19380401938054 387609
Arizona17699041128800 32056 14493401449364 290173
West Virginia44929783815340 33882 41541504154168 830831
Oregon40639363292040 38595 36779803677996 735597
Louisiana329047102439770 42536 286511028651310 617544
New Hampshire1765194903640 43078 13344101334424 266994
Oklahoma47376983855810 44095 42967404296768 859350
Kentucky572192104764530 47870 524322052432310 1053805
Washington62043095230020 48715 57171505717179 1150889
Minnesota719302116175250 50889 668413066841411 1340005
Virginia386459122677600 59350 327109032711012 697978
Florida643849104803710 81740 562109056211110 1124220
Texas1080619248599580 110331 970288097028924 1955545
Pennsylvania25852523219817690 301742 22835100228351132 4576503
All Other States 265 74 265 74 
TOTAL 457 74 1124223 265 266 18571185
 EISENHOWER WINS STEVENSON WINS 

Note: Actual elector vote was 457-73-1 (see here).

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
40
By percent of Voters needed:
38
By votes per electorate needed:
40

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1956 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1952

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 EISENHOWERSTEVENSON Change of votes EISENHOWERSTEVENSON Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Tennessee446147114437100 1219 444928044492911 892553
Delaware900593833150 3373 866860866883 174025
Rhode Island21093542032930 3822 20711302071154 414498
Nevada505023316880 9408 410940410963 82190
New Mexico13217041056610 13255 11891501189164 238608
Missouri959429139298300 14800 944629094463013 1892062
Wyoming810473479340 16557 644900644913 129251
Arizona15204241085280 21758 13028401302864 260570
Montana15739441062130 25591 13180301318044 265037
Utah19419041353640 29414 16477601647784 329554
New Hampshire16628741066630 29813 13647401364764 272950
Virginia349037122686770 40181 308856030885812 619689
Oklahoma51804584309390 43554 47449104744938 948984
Florida544036104449500 49544 494492049449410 989337
Maryland49942493953370 52044 44738004473819 902074
Washington59910794928450 53132 54597505459779 1102708
Texas1102878249692280 66826 10360520103605424 2075946
Massachusetts12923251610835250 104401 11879240118792616 2383398
Pennsylvania24157893221462690 134761 22810280228103032 4580969
All Other States 265 89 265 89 
TOTAL 442 89 713453 265 266 18554403
 EISENHOWER WINS STEVENSON WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
37
By percent of Voters needed:
32
By votes per electorate needed:
34

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1952 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1948

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 DEWEYTRUMAN Change of votes DEWEYTRUMAN Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Ohio14456840145279125 3554 14492382514492370 2936071
California18952690191313425 8933 19042022519042010 4021538
Illinois19611030199471528 16807 19779102819779080 3984046
All Other States 189 226 189 226 
TOTAL 189 304 29294 267 226 10941655
 TRUMAN WINS DEWEY WINS 

Note: Actual elector vote was 303-189-39 (see here). Although Thurmond received 39 electoral votes, and won 4 states, the smallest change of popular votes needed to affect the election (listed above) did not need any votes to be changed from his count, so he is not listed in the table. Compare to the 1924 election.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
16
By percent of Voters needed:
8
By votes per electorate needed:
17

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1948 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1944

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 DEWEYROOSEVELT Change of votes DEWEYROOSEVELT Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Nevada246110296233 2507 271183271160 54234
Idaho10013701073994 3632 10376941037670 208321
New Hampshire10991601196634 4874 11479041147890 229625
New Mexico706880813894 5351 760394760380 152225
Delaware567470681663 5710 624573624560 125361
Montana9316301125564 9697 10286041028590 207355
Michigan10844230110689919 11239 10956621910956600 2205223
Maryland29294903154908 11271 30422083042190 608439
Oregon22536502486356 11636 23700162369990 480147
New Jersey961335098787416 13270 974605169746040 1963761
Connecticut39052704351468 22310 41283784128360 831990
Missouri761524080780415 23141 784665157846630 1572474
Minnesota527416058986411 31225 558641115586390 1125529
Pennsylvania18350540194047935 52713 18877673518877660 3794793
Illinois19393140207947928 70083 20093972820093960 4036061
All Other States 99 264 99 264 
TOTAL 99 432 278659 267 264 17595538
 ROOSEVELT WINS DEWEY WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
28
By percent of Voters needed:
17
By votes per electorate needed:
25

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1944 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1940

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 WILLKIEROOSEVELT Change of votes WILLKIEROOSEVELT Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Wyoming526330592873 3328 559613559590 112240
Nevada212290319453 5359 265883265860 53174
Delaware614400745993 6580 680203680190 136374
New Hampshire11012701252924 7583 11771041177090 235419
Idaho10655301278424 10645 11719841171970 235168
New Mexico7931501036993 12193 915083915060 183258
Wisconsin679206070482112 12808 692014126920130 1405522
Minnesota596274064419611 23962 620236116202340 1251188
Connecticut36181904176218 27902 38972183897190 781502
New Jersey9448760101640416 35765 980641169806390 1974214
Missouri871009095847615 43734 914743159147420 1833729
Illinois20472400214993429 51348 20985882920985860 4217935
Ohio15867730173313926 73184 16599572616599550 3319912
New York30274780325191847 112221 31396994731396970 6301596
All Other States 82 265 82 265 
TOTAL 82 449 426612 266 265 22041231
 ROOSEVELT WINS WILLKIE WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
31
By percent of Voters needed:
24
By votes per electorate needed:
29

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1940 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1936

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 LANDONROOSEVELT Change of votes LANDONROOSEVELT Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
New Hampshire10464201084604 1910 10655241065500 218114
Delaware572360697023 6234 634703634680 127603
Nevada119230319253 10002 219253219230 43848
Wyoming387390626243 11943 506823506810 103382
South Dakota12597701601374 17081 14305841430560 296452
Rhode Island12503101652384 20104 14513541451340 311178
New Mexico6172701060373 22156 838833838810 169136
Arizona334330867223 26645 600783600770 124163
Idaho6625601256834 29714 959704959690 199617
Kansas39772704645209 33397 43112494311230 865514
Utah6455501502464 42846 10740141074000 216677
North Dakota7275101631484 45199 11795041179490 273716
Nebraska24773103474457 49858 29758972975870 608023
Connecticut27868503821298 51723 33040883304060 690723
South Carolina164601137918 56073 577198577180 115437
Arkansas3203901467659 57364 894039894010 179423
Iowa487977062175611 66890 554867115548660 1142733
Virginia98336023498011 68323 166659111666570 334590
Mississippi444301573189 76438 808819808800 162090
Maryland23143503896128 79089 31052483105230 624896
Kentucky369702054194411 86122 455824114558220 926203
Massachusetts768613094271617 87052 855665178556640 1840357
West Virginia32535805025828 88613 41397184139690 829945
Tennessee146520032808311 90782 237302112373010 476538
Alabama35358023819611 101420 136778111367760 275744
Georgia36942025536412 109212 146154121461520 293175
Indiana691570093497414 121703 813273148132710 1650897
Michigan6997330101679419 158531 858264198582630 1805098
Pennsylvania16902000235398736 331894 20220943620220930 4138426
All Other States 8 265 8 265 
TOTAL 8 523 1948318 266 265 19043698
 ROOSEVELT WINS LANDON WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
41
By percent of Voters needed:
44
By votes per electorate needed:
41

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1936 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1932

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 HOOVERROOSEVELT Change of votes HOOVERROOSEVELT Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Wyoming395830543703 7394 469773469760 96962
Nevada126740287563 8042 207163207140 41430
New Jersey775406080639416 15495 790901167908990 1629507
Rhode Island11526601466044 15670 13093641309340 266170
Utah8479501167504 15978 10077341007720 206578
Idaho7141701094794 19032 904494904470 186625
New Mexico542170950893 20437 746543746520 151606
Arizona361040792643 21581 576853576830 118251
Colorado18961702508776 30631 22024862202460 457696
Massachusetts736959080014817 31595 768554177685530 1580114
Ohio12273190130169526 37189 12645082612645060 2609728
West Virginia33073104051248 37197 36792883679270 743774
Kansas34949804242049 37354 38685293868500 791978
Oregon13601902138715 38927 17494651749440 368808
South Carolina197801023478 50185 521638521620 104407
Virginia89637020397911 57172 146809111468070 297942
Michigan739894087170019 65904 805798198057960 1664765
Tennessee126752025947311 66361 193113111931120 390256
New York19379630253495947 298499 22364624722364600 4688614
All Other States 59 265 59 265 
TOTAL 59 472 874643 266 265 16395211
 ROOSEVELT WINS HOOVER WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
39
By percent of Voters needed:
34
By votes per electorate needed:
35

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1932 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1928

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 HOOVERSMITH Change of votes HOOVERSMITH Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Nevada183273140900 2119 162080162093 32417
Utah946184809850 6817 878010878024 176603
Arizona525333385370 6999 455340455363 91254
New Mexico696453482110 10718 589270589293 118014
Virginia164609121401460 12232 152377015237812 305358
North Dakota13144151066480 12397 11904401190455 239867
Texas367036203410320 13003 354033035403520 708999
Tennessee195388121673430 14023 181365018136612 363473
New Hampshire1154044807150 17345 980590980604 196757
Montana1133004785780 17362 959380959404 194108
Florida14416861017640 21203 12296501229676 253672
Connecticut29661472520400 22288 27432602743287 553031
North Carolina348923122862270 31349 317574031757612 635150
Maryland30147982236260 38927 26255202625538 528348
Wisconsin544205134502590 46974 497231049723313 1016831
New York21933444520898630 51741 21416030214160445 4405626
Missouri834080186625620 85760 748320074832218 1500721
All Other States 265 87 265 87 
TOTAL 444 87 411257 265 266 11320229
 HOOVER WINS SMITH WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
30
By percent of Voters needed:
31
By votes per electorate needed:
28

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1928 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1924

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Change of Votes Theoretical 
 COOLIDGEDAVISLAFOLLETTE LostGainedLost COOLIDGEDAVISLAFOLLETTE Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. CoolidgeDavisLaFollette Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Arizona305163262350172100 214121410 283750283763172100 73961
Nevada1124335909097690 22693066797 897408975389720 26921
New Mexico54745348542095430 310231020 51643051644395430 112830
Maryland16241481480720471570 717271720 15524201552448471570 358630
Delaware52441333445049790 949994990 42942042944349790 90885
Kentucky398966133748550384650 12056120560 386910038691113384650 815332
Wyoming418583128680251740 14496144960 273620273643251740 79900
Utah773274470010326620 15164151640 621630621654326620 156990
West Virginia28863582572320367230 15702157020 27293302729348367230 583662
New Hampshire98575457201089930 20688206880 77887077889489930 164769
Montana741384338050661230 16117242188101 580210580234580220 174423
Rhode Island125286576606076280 24341243410 1009450100947576280 210115
Idaho698794242560541600 20447251774730 494320494334494300 148295
Vermont80498416124059640 32188321880 48310048312459640 102917
Oregon1425795675890684030 37496374960 10508301050855684030 279488
Missouri648486185727530841600 37867378670 610619061062018841600 1307958
Nebraska218585813728901067010 40649406490 177936017793881067010 464173
South Dakota1012995272140753550 33344407437399 679550679575679560 203868
Maine1384406419640113820 48239482390 902010902036113820 192192
North Dakota949315138580899220 286955238023685 662360662385662370 199081
Indiana703042154922450717000 1053991053990 597643059764415717000 1272390
All Other States 251 13613 251 136 13 
TOTAL 382 13613  571783  251 267 13 7018780
 COOLIDGE WINS DAVIS WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
34
By percent of Voters needed:
41
By votes per electorate needed:
37

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1924 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1920

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 HARDINGCOX Change of votes HARDINGCOX Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Nevada15479398510 2815 126640126663 27194
Arizona370163295460 3736 332800332823 66562
New Mexico576343466680 5484 521500521523 105406
Delaware528583399110 6474 463840463853 94875
Tennessee219829122065580 6636 213193021319412 428626
Wyoming350913174290 8832 262590262613 54700
Utah815554566390 12459 690960690984 145828
Oklahoma243831102170530 13390 230441023044310 486610
New Hampshire951964626620 16268 789280789304 159092
Idaho889754465790 21199 677760677784 135624
Vermont682124209190 23647 445650445664 89961
Montana1094304573720 26030 834000834024 179006
Rhode Island1074635550620 26201 812620812635 167981
Maryland23611781806260 27746 20837102083728 428443
West Virginia28200782207890 30610 25139702513998 509942
Oregon1435925800190 31787 11180501118065 238522
Colorado17324861049360 34157 13909101390936 292053
South Dakota1106925359380 37378 733140733165 182237
Maine1363556589610 38698 976570976596 197840
Connecticut22923871207210 54259 17497901749807 365518
Missouri727162185747990 76182 650980065098118 1332800
Indiana696370155113640 92504 603866060386815 1262964
All Other States 264 127 264 127 
TOTAL 404 127 596492 264 267 6951784
 HARDING WINS COX WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
36
By percent of Voters needed:
43
By votes per electorate needed:
36

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1920 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1916

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 HUGHESWILSON Change of votes HUGHESWILSON Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
California462516046628913 1887 464403134644020 999603
All Other States 254 264 254 264 
TOTAL 254 277 1887 267 264 999603
 WILSON WINS HUGHES WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
5
By percent of Voters needed:
5
By votes per electorate needed:
7

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1916 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1912

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Change of Votes Theoretical 
 TAFTWILSONROOSEVELT LostLostGained TAFTWILSONROOSEVELT Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. TaftWilsonRoosevelt Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Vermont233324153540221320 6010601 227310153540227334 62841
Nevada319607986356200 011841184 319606802068043 20115
Maine265450511136484950 013101310 265450498030498056 129640
Arizona3021010324369490 016881688 302108636086373 23722
North Dakota230900295555257260 019151915 230900276400276415 86580
Montana185120279414224560 027432743 185120251980251994 79826
Wyoming14560015310392320 152722763803 130330130340130353 42296
Oregon346730470645376000 047334733 346730423310423335 137040
Idaho328100339214255270 205731705227 307530307510307544 105754
Delaware15998022631388860 16067936953 158380158380158393 48694
New Mexico17733020437383470 222849327160 155050155050155073 49376
Rhode Island277030304125168780 270654158121 249970249970249995 77894
Illinois2535930405048293864780 092869286 2535930395762039576429 1146173
Utah421004365790241740 7816229510111 342840342840342854 112386
Kansas748450143663101202100 01172711727 748450131936013193710 365560
Iowa1198050185325131618190 01175411754 1198050173571017357313 492356
Massachusetts1559480173408181422280 01559115591 1559480157817015781918 488057
New Jersey888350178289141454100 01644016440 888350161849016185014 432739
West Virginia5675401131978791120 01704317043 567540961540961558 268828
Nebraska5422601090088726810 01816418164 542260908440908458 249483
Alabama980708243812226800 02988029880 980705255805256012 117959
Georgia519109308714219850 03555235552 519105753505753714 121470
All Other States 0 26588 0 265 88 
TOTAL 8 43588   220986 0 265 266 4658789
 WILSON WINS ROOSEVELT WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
27
By percent of Voters needed:
33
By votes per electorate needed:
24

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1912 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1908

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 TAFTBRYAN Change of votes TAFTBRYAN Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Maryland11651381159080 303 11621001162118 238531
Missouri347203183465740 315 346888034688918 715927
Delaware250143220550 1480 235340235353 48007
Montana323333293260 1504 308290308309 68822
Wyoming208463149180 2965 178810178833 37609
Indiana348993153382620 5366 343627034362815 721126
West Virginia13786971114180 13226 124643012464410 258105
Ohio572312235027210 34796 537516053751723 1121552
All Other States 241 162 241 162 
TOTAL 321 162 59955 241 251 3209679
 TAFT WINS BRYAN WINS 

Note: Actual elector vote was 321-162. Although Taft (R) won Maryland he only received 2 of their electoral votes; the other 6 went to Bryan (D). For Calculation purposes I assumed all 8 went to Taft.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
21
By percent of Voters needed:
21
By votes per electorate needed:
20

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1908 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1904

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 ROOSEVELTPARKER Change of votes ROOSEVELTPARKER Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Nevada6864339820 1442 5422054243 12115
Delaware237053193470 2180 215250215273 43856
Wyoming20489389300 5780 147090147103 30708
Montana349323217730 6580 283520283533 64444
Rhode Island416054248390 8384 332210332234 68656
New Hampshire541634340740 10045 441180441194 90161
Missouri321449182963120 12569 308880030888118 643861
West Virginia13262071008550 15883 11673701167387 239986
Massachusetts257822161657460 46039 211783021178516 445109
New York859533396839810 87777 771756077175839 1617770
All Other States 236 140 236 140 
TOTAL 336 140 196679 236 240 3256666
 ROOSEVELT WINS PARKER WINS 

Note: Maryland was not included in the calculations, as even though Roosevelt won the state, he only received 1 of the electoral votes, the other 7 went to Parker. This makes the calculations more conservative, as if all eight went to Roosevelt.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
26
By percent of Voters needed:
37
By votes per electorate needed:
27

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1904 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1900

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 MCKINLEYBRYAN Change of votes MCKINLEYBRYAN Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Utah471393450060 1067 460720460733 93189
Delaware225353188520 1842 206930206943 41989
Nebraska12183581140130 3912 11792301179258 241430
Maryland13618581222380 6974 12921101292128 264434
Kansas185955101626010 11678 174277017427910 353766
Indiana336063153095840 13240 322823032282415 664094
Ohio543918234748820 34519 509399050940123 1040073
All Other States 222 155 222 155 
TOTAL 292 155 73232 222 225 2698975
 MCKINLEY WINS BRYAN WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
23
By percent of Voters needed:
28
By votes per electorate needed:
23

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1900 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1896

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 MCKINLEYBRYAN Change of votes MCKINLEYBRYAN Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Kentucky218171132178940 139 218032021803313 445928
California14668891447660 962 14572601457289 298419
Oregon487794467390 1021 477580477604 97414
Delaware204503165740 1939 185110185133 38456
West Virginia1053796944800 5450 999290999306 201757
Indiana323754153055730 9091 314663031466415 637119
All Other States 221 176 221 176 
TOTAL 271 176 18602 222 226 1719093
 MCKINLEY WINS BRYAN WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
13
By percent of Voters needed:
14
By votes per electorate needed:
16

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1896 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections



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1892

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Change of Votes Theoretical  
 HARRISON CLEVELANDWEAVER GainedLostLost  HARRISONCLEVELANDWEAVER Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. HarrisonClevelandWeaver Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
California11802701181749253110 74740 11810191181000253110 269609
North Dakota17519000177003 91091 17610300176090 36118
Delaware18077018581300 2532530 18330318328000 37235
Idaho8599000105203 9610961 956030095590 19407
Kansas15724100016311110 293602936 16017710001601750 324905
Wisconsin171101017732512100190 311331130 174214121742120100190 371581
Indiana255615026274015222080 356335630 259178152591770222080 553613
Illinois399288042628124222070 13497134970 412785244127840222070 873647
All Other States 145 2146 145 214 6 
TOTAL 145 27722 24488    224 214 6 2486115
 CLEVELAND WINS HARRISON WINS 

Note: The 0 popular votes for Cleveland are correct. Also, in the actual election North Dakota in reality split their vote 1-1-1, California 1-8-0, and Oregon 3-0-1.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
14
By percent of Voters needed:
12
By votes per electorate needed:
13

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1892 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1888

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 HARRISONCLEVELAND Change of votes HARRISONCLEVELAND Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
New York650338366359650 7187 643151064315236 1319748
All Other States 197 168 197 168 
TOTAL 233 168 7187 197 204 1319748
 HARRISON WINS CLEVELAND WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
8
By percent of Voters needed:
9
By votes per electorate needed:
8

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1888 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1884

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 BLAINECLEVELAND Change of votes BLAINECLEVELAND Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
New York562005056315436 575 562580365625790 1167169
All Other States 182 183 182 183 
TOTAL 182 219 575 218 183 1167169
 CLEVELAND WINS BLAINE WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
3
By percent of Voters needed:
2
By votes per electorate needed:
2

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1884 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections



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1880

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 GARFIELDHANCOCK Change of votes GARFIELDHANCOCK Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Oregon206193199550 333 202860202883 40823
Connecticut670716644110 1331 657400657426 132798
Colorado274503246470 1402 260480260493 53546
New Hampshire448565407970 2030 428260428275 86361
Indiana232164152255220 3322 228842022884415 470672
All Other States 182 155 182 155 
TOTAL 214 155 8418 182 187 784200
 GARFIELD WINS HANCOCK WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
10
By percent of Voters needed:
13
By votes per electorate needed:
11

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1880 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections



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1876

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 HAYESTILDEN Change of votes HAYESTILDEN Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
South Carolina917867908970 445 913410913427 182683
All Other States 178 184 178 184 
TOTAL 185 184 445 182 191 182683
 HAYES WINS TILDEN WINS 

Note: In theory the 1876 election was decided by just one vote in a special commission created to resolve the election, see Electoral Commission. "With no independents left on the Supreme Court, the final seat on the Electoral Commission was given instead to Justice Joseph Philo Bradley, a Republican. As a result, the GOP held a one-seat majority on the body. Bradley would, in every case, vote with his fellow Republicans to give the disputed electoral votes to Hayes."

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
2
By percent of Voters needed:
7
By votes per electorate needed:
4

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1876 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1872

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 GRANTGREELEY Change of votes GRANTGREELEY Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Delaware111293102050 463 106660106683 21822
Virginia9346311916470 909 9255409255611 185195
Nevada8413362360 1089 7324073253 14649
Florida177634154270 1169 165940165964 33190
West Virginia323205295320 1395 309250309275 62467
Oregon11818377420 2039 9779097813 20147
Connecticut503146456950 2310 480040480056 96009
New Hampshire371685314250 2872 342960342975 68906
Rhode Island13665453290 4169 9496094984 18994
Alabama9027210794440 5415 8485708485910 169716
New Jersey916569764560 7601 840550840579 168112
Indiana186147151636320 11258 174889017489015 351196
New York440738353872820 26729 414009041401135 828020
All Other States 173 63 173 63 
TOTAL 286 63 67418 173 176 2038423
 GRANT WINS GREELEY WINS 

Note: Actual electoral vote was 286-42-18-2-1, as Greeley died November 29, 1872. In the electoral college, the electors who had pledged to Greeley split their presidential electoral votes among four candidates, including 18 for Brown, Green's running mate.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
22
By percent of Voters needed:
30
By votes per electorate needed:
19

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1872 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1868

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 GRANTSEYMOUR Change of votes GRANTSEYMOUR Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
California545885540680 261 543270543295 108656
Nevada6480352180 632 5848058503 11698
Connecticut507886478440 1473 493150493176 98632
Arkansas221125190780 1518 205940205965 41190
Alabama766678729210 1874 747930747958 149594
Nebraska9772355190 2127 7645076463 15291
Indiana176552131669800 4787 171765017176713 343532
Pennsylvania342280263133820 14450 327830032783226 655662
All Other States 145 80 145 80 
TOTAL 214 80 27122 145 149 1424255
 GRANT WINS SEYMOUR WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
15
By percent of Voters needed:
22
By votes per electorate needed:
18

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1868 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1864

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 LINCOLNMcCLELLAN Change of votes LINCOLNMcCLELLAN Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Oregon9888384570 716 9172091733 18345
Connecticut446936422880 1203 434900434916 86981
New Hampshire365965330340 1782 348140348165 69630
Rhode Island13962484700 2747 112150112174 22432
New York368735333619860 3375 365360036536133 730721
Maryland401537327390 3708 364450364477 72892
Minnesota250554173670 3845 212100212124 42422
Michigan791498685130 5319 738300738328 147662
Pennsylvania296391262763160 10038 286353028635426 572707
All Other States 116 21 116 21 
TOTAL 212 21 32733 116 117 1763792
 LINCOLN WINS McCLELLAN WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
18
By percent of Voters needed:
20
By votes per electorate needed:
15

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1864 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1860

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

The 1860 election is unusual as the candidate who received the most popular votes behind Lincoln only placed fourth in the electoral college.

1860PartyPopularRankElectoralRank
LincolnRepublican1,865,90811801
DouglasDemocrat1,380,2022124
BreckinridgeSouthern Democrat848,0193722
BellConstitutional Union590,9014393


Because of this situation, the candidate with the fewest votes needed to be changed to win the election was not Douglas, but Breckinridge. Since there are four main candidates, and because of space constraints, only the votes needed will be shown:

BRECKINRIDGE
 
 Change of VotesFrom which Candidate?
Virgina79Bell
Oregon136Lincoln
Tennessee2316Bell
California29321,822 from Lincoln; 1,099 from Douglas
Kentucky6458Bell
Rhode Island66515,594 from Lincoln; 1,057 from Douglas
Minnesota10,83210,491 from Lincoln, 341 from Douglas
Pennyslvania44,580Lincoln
TOTAL73,984

Had Breckinridge won those states, totalling 81 electoral votes, he would have won the election.

For comparison: Douglas would have needed 15 states, totalling 140 electoral votes, and would have required a minimum of 141,524 voters to change their vote in order for him to have won the election.

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
24
By percent of Voters needed:
39
By votes per electorate needed:
21

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1860 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1856

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Change of Votes Theoretical 
 FREMONTBUCHANANFILLMORE GainedLostLost FREMONTBUCHANANFILLMORE Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. FremontBuchananFillmore Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Florida006358348330 373126281103 373133730037300 11191
Delaware31008004362750 455431411413 486434863048620 14598
Illinois96275010552811375310 462746270 100902111009010375310 239334
New Jersey283380469437241150 930393030 376417376400241150 99396
Indiana94375011867013223860 12148121480 106523131065220223860 235431
All Other States 114 1378 114 137 8 
TOTAL 114 1748 34363   151 137 8 599950
 BUCHANAN WINS FREMONT WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
19
By percent of Voters needed:
35
By votes per electorate needed:
22

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1856 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1852

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 SCOTTPIERCE Change of votes SCOTTPIERCE Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Delaware6293063183 13 6306363050 12673
North Carolina3904303978810 373 3941610394150 78891
Rhode Island7626087354 555 8181481800 17005
Louisiana172550186476 697 179526179500 35902
Iowa158560177634 954 168104168090 35364
Connecticut303590332496 1446 318056318030 66781
Maryland350770400228 2473 375508375490 75120
New Jersey385560443057 2875 414317414300 83220
Missouri299840388179 4417 344019344000 68801
Ohio152523016893323 8206 160729231607270 353188
Pennsylvania179104019856227 9730 188834271888320 387839
All Other States 42 147 42 147 
TOTAL 42 254 31739 149 147 1214784
 PIERCE WINS SCOTT WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
17
By percent of Voters needed:
27
By votes per electorate needed:
12

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1852 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1848

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 TAYLORCASS Change of votes TAYLORCASS Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Delaware6440359100 266 6174061763 12432
Georgia4753210447850 1374 4615804615910 92317
Louisiana184876153790 1555 169320169346 33866
All Other States 144 127 144 127 
TOTAL 163 127 3195 144 146 138615
 TAYLOR WINS CASS WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
7
By percent of Voters needed:
26
By votes per electorate needed:
9

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1848 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1844

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 CLAYPOLK Change of votes CLAYPOLK Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
New York232482023758836 2554 235036362350340 485882
All Other States 105 134 105 134 
TOTAL 105 170 2554 141 134 485882
 POLK WINS CLAY WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
6
By percent of Voters needed:
10
By votes per electorate needed:
5

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1844 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1840

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

 Actual Election Theoretical 
 HARRISONVAN BUREN Change of votes HARRISONVAN BUREN Total Votes in State
 Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. Pop.Elect.Pop.Elect. 
Pennsylvania144010301436760 168 143842014384430 288026
Maine4661210461900 212 4640004640210 92802
New Jersey333518310340 1159 321920321938 64454
New York226001422127330 6635 219366021936842 441543
All Other States 144 60 144 60 
TOTAL 234 60 8174 144 150 886825
 HARRISON WINS VAN BUREN WINS 

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
9
By percent of Voters needed:
11
By votes per electorate needed:
6

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1840 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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1836

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

The 1836 election is unusual as
"It was the only race in which a major political party intentionally ran several presidential candidates. The Whigs ran three different candidates in different regions of the country, hoping that each would be popular enough to defeat Democratic standard-bearer Martin Van Buren in their respective areas. The House of Representatives could then decide between the competing Whig candidates. This strategy failed: Van Buren won a majority of the electoral vote and became President." [Source]
Because of this situation, the method of calculation used was not to make another candidate win, but to find the minimum number of votes needed for Van Buren to lose. He would then not have a majority in the electoral vote and the election would be thrown into the House, as the Whig Party had planned.

VAN BUREN
 
 Change of VotesFrom Van Buren to which Candidate?
Rhode Island128Harrison
Louisiana130White
Connecticut248Harrison
Mississippi258White
Arkansas524White
TOTAL1,288

Had Van Buren lost those states, totalling 24 electoral votes, the election would have gone to the House of Representatives.

The total votes, 1288, is relatively low as it is easier to make the winning candidate not win an election (not caring who else would win), then as to try and make another specific candidate win (as were the other cases solved above)

Ranking of Elections(# / 44)
(since 1836)
By number of Voters needed:
4
By percent of Voters needed:
19
By votes per electorate needed:
3

Source for Data:
Leip, David. 1836 Presidential Election Results. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S.Presidential Elections



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Before 1836

What is the smallest number of total votes that need to be switched from one candidate to another, and from which states, to affect the outcome of the election?

The elections before 1836 were not analyzed, as the majority of the states did not have a 'winner take all' method for electoral votes, but had the state divided into electoral districts, with one elector chosen per district by the voters of that district. (For calculation purposes, those states that did have split electoral votes in the elections since were handled on a case by case basis). This makes calculating the minimum number of votes extremely difficult as you now need to know the popular votes for each electoral district.

See below for an explanation of the electoral districts.

Electoral districts [Source]

Another method for choosing electors is to divide a state into electoral districts, and the voters of each district choose a single elector, much as states are presently divided into congressional districts for choosing representatives. The electoral districts cannot correspond with congressional districts, though, because there are two more electoral districts than congressional districts. As with congressional districts, moreover, this method is vulnerable to gerrymandering.

States which have used Electoral Vote Districting and the years used:

Illinois: 1820, 1824.
Kentucky: 1792, 1796, 1800, 1804, 1808, 1812, 1816, 1820, 1824.
Maryland: 1796, 1800, 1804, 1808, 1812, 1816, 1820, 1824, 1828, 1832.
Michigan: 1892.
Missouri: 1824.
North Carolina: 1796, 1800, 1804, 1808.
Tennessee: 1804, 1808, 1812, 1816, 1820, 1824, 1828.
Virginia: 1789, 1792, 1796.




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Sorted by Votes
YEARTotal Votes changed
2000269
1876445
1884575
18361288
19161887
18442554
18483195
18884801
18408174
18808418
19769246
196011874
189618602
189224488
186827122
194829294
185231739
186432733
185634363
200457787
190859955
187267418
190073232
186073984
1968135284
1904196679
1912220986
1944278659
1992284837
1928411257
1940426612
2008444121
1988537766
1924571783
1996575515
1920596492
1952713453
1980731189
1932874643
19561124223
19361948318
19642058258
19842675811
19723174786



Back to TopBY VOTESBY FRACTIONVOTES PER ELECTORATESTATESRankings



Sorted by fraction of voters
YEARTotal votes changedTotal votes from affected statesVotes needed to change per 100,000 voters
200026959631105
1884575116716949
1960118747294910163
196813528477841995174
19161887999603189
197692464403174210
1876445182683244
19482929410941655268
18884801921306521
18442554485882526
18408174886825922
1892244882486115985
188084187842001073
18961860217190931082
20045778743935421315
1992284837195560041457
1944278659175955381584
2008444121263578291685
18361288749851718
18643273317637921856
19085995532096791868
18682712214242551904
1988537766281512811910
1940426612220412311936
1980731189354711922061
184831951386152305
18523173912147842613
19007323226989752713
1996575515208148742765
18726741820384233307
1928411257113202293633
1952713453185544033845
191222098646587894743
1932874643163952115335
1856343635999505728
19842675811444482386020
190419667932566666039
19561124223185711856054
18607398411249316577
19642058258257709387987
192457178370187808146
19723174786382627698297
192059649269517848580
193619483181904369810231



Back to TopBY VOTESBY FRACTIONVOTES PER ELECTORATESTATESRankings



Sorted by votes per electorate
YEARTotal votes changedElectoral votes affectedVotes per electoral
20002692511
18845753616
183612882454
1876445764
184425543671
184081749091
1916188713145
1888480133145
1848319519168
19601187450237
1880841832263
185231739107297
18922448879310
1976924629319
18643273396341
18961860250372
19482929478376
18682712269393
187267418113597
19085995589674
18607398481913
18563436337929
190073232701046
19122209861781241
19442786591681659
1968135284791712
19041966791001967
19284112571792298
19404266121842319
200457787212752
19922848371032765
19807311892223294
19885377661583404
19527134531774031
19328746432074225
19205964921404261
19245717831314365
2008444121974579
19965755151115185
195611242231925855
193619483182587552
196420582582189442
1984267581125710412
1972317478625312549



Back to TopBY VOTESBY FRACTIONVOTES PER ELECTORATESTATESRankings



Sorted by influential states
STATEElections state was influential since 1836Total Elections participated in since 1836Fraction
New Mexico172568%
Delaware244455%
Nevada203754%
Montana143047%
Wyoming133043%
Oregon153839%
New Hampshire174439%
Hawaii51338%
Idaho113037%
Arizona92536%
Rhode Island154434%
Utah92931%
Alaska41331%
North Dakota93030%
West Virginia113730%
Connecticut134430%
Indiana134430%
Maryland134430%
Missouri134430%
New York134430%
Pennsylvania124427%
Tennessee124427%
California104025%
Illinois114425%
Ohio114425%
South Dakota73023%
New Jersey104423%
Florida94122%
Iowa94122%
Colorado73321%
Vermont94420%
Virginia94420%
Kentucky84418%
Maine84418%
Wisconsin74117%
Nebraska63617%
Kansas63716%
Massachusetts74416%
Minnesota63816%
Oklahoma42615%
Louisiana64414%
Michigan64414%
Washington43013%
Alabama54411%
Arkansas54411%
Georgia54411%
North Carolina54411%
South Carolina54411%
Texas44110%
Mississippi3447%
Washington, DC0120%



Back to TopBY VOTESBY FRACTIONVOTES PER ELECTORATESTATESRankings



Sorted by number of states needed to switch
STATENumber of
states		Total number of states during electionFraction
20001502%
19161482%
18881383%
18841383%
18761373%
18441264%
19762504%
20043506%
19483486%
196055010%
184832910%
188053813%
189664513%
200875014%
184042615%
190074516%
196885016%
185653116%
190884617%
189284418%
183652421%
186883722%
1996115022%
1992115022%
1904104522%
186083324%
186493625%
1988145028%
1940144829%
1944154831%
1980175034%
1872133735%
1928174835%
1852113135%
1952194840%
1932194840%
1924214844%
1920224846%
1912224846%
1984235046%
1956234848%
1972265052%
1964265052%
1936294860%