'War for eyeballs' isn't over yet
Today, the world is only beginning to see
computer functions on TVs or TV functions on
computers. Silicon Valley desperately wants to
continue that convergence trend, and it sees the
conversion from analogue to digital TV
technology as the ideal accelerator. But TV
makers and broadcasters aren't so sure. They
tend to believe that digital TV's high resolution is
the carrot that will lure consumers to spend
money on new services and devices.
As recently as this summer, Intel Corp.'s chief
executive, Andrew Grove, had described the future of home
entertainment as a zero-sum game. On one side was the
computer industry, desperately trying to figure out how to
get consumers to both channel surf and Web surf on their
computers. On the other side was the TV industry, just
beginning to ponder ways to bring computer functions to the
TV set, yet still dominate in the "War for Eyeballs."
But in a startling reversal, Intel executives claimed last
week that portrayal was off-base. It was a war for a
"nonexistent market," said Intel Senior Vice President Ron
Whittier at a press gathering at its Santa Clara, Calif.,
headquarters. What he meant was that there are so few
"converged" products on the market that there's virtually no
market yet for hybrid PC-TV services.
As a result, Intel said, it would dramatically change its
approach to the rapidly emerging, federally mandated
digital-TV market. Specifically, Intel said it would abandon
its frustrating effort to convince the TV world to commit
exclusively to broadcasting in computer-friendly
"progressive-scan" formats. Instead, as the broadcast
industry begins its long and costly conversion from analogue
to digital television technology, Intel said it would create
devices (mostly set-top boxes) capable of handling all
formats, including the computer-unfriendly "interlaced"
ones.
The position change stunned Intel's "partners" in the
digital TV standards debate. Only last April, Intel had stood
alongside Compaq and Microsoft in staunch support of
exclusively progressive-scan signals. But the chipmaker's
reversal had placed its partners in an awkward position.
Compaq maintained that the so-called DTV Team and its
goals were still intact. Microsoft simply didn't comment at
all.
(Microsoft is a partner with NBC in MSNBC.)
At issue is the ability of the computer industry to make
computer functionality a standard feature in future TVs.
Today, the world is only beginning to see computer
functions on TVs (WebTV, for example, or the electronic
programming guides offered by satellite services) or TV
functions on computers (such as Intel's Intercast
technology, which displays live TV programming alongside
Internet content).
Silicon Valley desperately wants to continue that
convergence trend, and it sees the conversion from
analogue to digital TV technology as the ideal accelerator.
The high-tech sector envisions all TVs offering e-mail, Web
browsing, electronic programming guides, video games and
more.
But TV makers and broadcasters aren't so sure. They
tend to believe that digital TV's high resolution -- rather
than some vague notion of interactivity -- is the carrot that
will lure consumers to spend money on new services and
devices.
That's where the importance of the standards comes in.
Words just don't look too good on "interlaced" TV
displays. Simply put, Silicon Valley needs all the help it can
get to convince consumers and broadcasters to consume
and create interactive TV products. And only through
progressive-scan imaging will their interactive services look
their best.
MORE FORMATS, HIGHER COST
Now, a Microsoft spokesman downplays the Intel
split. It's simply a matter, he says, of determining the most
cost-effective and expeditious way to create interactive
television. Allowing all formats to be broadcast in the
coming digital-TV age will make digital receivers more
expensive. That's because the "decoders" that translate the
many formats into TV images are expensive to make; the
more decoding required, the more expensive the equipment.
Intel estimates that all-format decoders will cost
between $200 and $250 next year (and less thereafter). But
that $200-plus only pays for part of any piece of home
electronics. The TV screen itself, the disk storage on a
set-top box, the processor -- all those components add
hundreds more dollars, potentially taking interactive-TV
devices beyond the reach of the typical couch potato.
So why did Intel break ranks?
Possible answer: Because as a maker of processors,
Intel simply wants to make sure living rooms are filled with
the maximum number of interactive devices. The chipmaker
doesn't care how robust those services are, so long as they
involve some sort of computing. So the company is
buddying up to broadcasters, consumer-electronics makers
and everyone else in the TV industry as best it can.
Why don't Microsoft and Compaq follow suit?
Possible answer: Because of the crucial added-cost issue mentioned above.
But for Microsoft, there may be another reason as well,
suggests Dan Lavin, analyst with Dataquest. The software
giant has spent two decades maximizing its operating system
for a progressive scan format. As the company readies its
latest-model operating system, Windows 98, featuring
TV-tuning capabilities, shifting gears may not be easy.
What's more, the company's chief product, its operating
system, is extremely dense; like a deluxe VCR, it contains
myriad functions and options for users, many of which most
users will never touch. Thus, Microsoft wants to make sure
that as much computing power as possible is available on
people's home-entertainment displays.
To be sure, conversion technology enabling devices to
toggle back and forth between the two incompatible formats
may well mitigate any problems for Microsoft. And as many
analysts point out, Microsoft is plenty resilient in the face of
setbacks. As for Intel's shift, some suggest it's simply a ploy
for the company to cozy up to TV types and then convert
them to its preferred approaches -- i.e., the
progressive-scan formats it appears to be abandoning.
Despite Intel's change of direction, Microsoft continues
its staunch support of the progressive-scan format. "We
think with digital, it's a no brainer," says Phil Missimore, a
Microsoft spokesman. "The discussion keeps moving
forward in bits and starts."
But Josh Bernoff, Forrester Research analyst, isn't so
sure.
"About four or five months ago, Microsoft people told
me they were making pretty good progress in convincing
broadcasters to adopt their standards," he says. "I haven't
heard much of anything since."
What Intel just did, he believes, is "pointed out that the
emperor has no clothes on."