If cables evoke a sense of restraint, wireless technology seems to promise freedom. But appearances can be deceptive. Every new technology comes with strings attached—including an inevitable standards tug-of-war and a struggle to secure the necessary infrastructure.
Over the next few years, though, wireless access to the Net and to local networks will begin to fulfill its liberating destiny. The reason is economics. "Mobile voice service is being commoditized," says Mark Zohar of Forrester Research. "Data services—and that means the Internet—are a far more profitable business, and there is a lot less customer churn."
Worldwide there were about 303 million mobile-phone subscribers in 1998. That number is expected to reach about 1.1 billion by 2003, according to IDC analysts, and to surpass PC sales by 2004. Why? Because more and more people will be accessing data on mobile devices other than PCs.
However, the technical standards for a worldwide wireless network remain in flux. The so-called 3G (third-generation) wireless telephone standard, now under review by the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), is already being cited in marketing materials of wireless providers and equipment vendors. Never mind that the standard hasn't even been adopted yet.
Meanwhile, similar machinations are grinding at the local area network level. Dozens of companies are releasing products for wireless home and office networks, enabling remote access to data through various devices, including mobile phones and PDAs.
Here too standards are scattershot—manufacturers and software developers remain unsure of what technologies and operating systems will win out as well as what features users will demand for their wireless devices. A company called Symbian seems to be making inroads. Owned by wireless giants Ericsson, Matsushita, Nokia, and Psion, it licenses its EPOC operating system to phone manufacturers that also use the Wireless Application Protocol, which lets you browse the Web on phones.
