| Bush’s re-election:
What the numbers really show
“In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way
things are going in the United States at this time?”
It’s a standard polling question, used by the Gallup Organization,
to determine the mood of the American electorate.
In the latest Gallup survey, taken in the first week of June, just
39 percent of those polled said they were satisfied with the way
things are going in the United States, versus 59 percent who said
they were dissatisfied.
Those figures, along with similar numbers from other polls, have
been widely interpreted as bad news for President Bush — indeed,
such measures are often called a key factor in determining a president’s
chances of winning re-election.
But a closer look at the situation — and at polling history
— suggests that might not
be the case.
At about this time in 2000, 56 percent of those surveyed by Gallup
said they were satisfied with the way things were going in the country,
versus 39 percent who said they were dissatisfied.
It was nearly the opposite of today’s situation, yet Al Gore,
the eight-year vice president who should have benefited from all
that voter satisfaction, managed to lose.
Then there was 1996.
In May of that year, 60 percent of those polled by Gallup said they
were dissatisfied with the way things were going in the country,
versus just 37 percent who were satisfied.
Yet Bill Clinton, the incumbent president who should have suffered
from all that voter dissatisfaction, managed to win.
What does it mean? To find out, you have to compare the satisfied/dissatisfied
numbers with the president’s job approval at the time.
In 1996, Clinton should have been in deep trouble. Between the time
of his inauguration in January 1993 and the election in November
1996, Gallup asked the satisfied/dissatisfied question in 23 polls.
In every single one of those surveys, the number of dissatisfied
Americans was higher than the number who said they were satisfied
with the way things were going.
But Clinton, huddling with Dick Morris, demonizing Republicans and
using all the techniques that made his damage-control operation
legendary, managed to keep his job approval on a different plane.
In that same May 1996 Gallup survey, when just 37 percent of those
polled were satisfied with the way things were going, 55 percent
said they approved of the job Clinton was doing as president —
an 18-point gap.
“Sometimes people can feel that things in the country are
difficult but that the president is doing a good job,” says
Republican pollster David Winston.
“If the president is able to assert that he has a clear direction,
and people agree with that direction, you can have that gap.”
The 2000 race was a different story. By that time, Gallup found
high — 55 percent — voter satisfaction. And Clinton’s
job approval was exactly the same. No gap at all.
Clearly, Gore had to work hard to lose that election, but he got
the job done.
Now, however, there is again a gap between voter satisfaction and
presidential job approval.
In the latest Gallup poll, in which the number of voters satisfied
with the way things are going is 39 percent, George W. Bush’s
job approval rating is 49 percent — a 10-point gap.
“You clearly have a group of people in the country who are
unhappy about the direction of the country but believe that Bush’s
policies will take the country in the right direction,” Winston
says.
Of course, Bush’s 10-point gap between voter satisfaction
and presidential job approval is not as impressive as Clinton’s
18-point gap.
And there’s no telling which way the numbers will go within
the next five months.
But right now, that gap is good news for the Bush campaign.
By the way, if you want to see what a real losing campaign looks
like, check out the Gallup numbers from the first President Bush’s
1992 re-election effort.
In June of that year, 14 percent — 14 percent! — said
they were satisfied with the way things were going in the United
States.
Eighty-four percent said they were dissatisfied.
From a polling perspective, it was the worst moment — the
lowest satisfaction, the highest dissatisfaction — of George
H.W. Bush’s presidency.
But it wasn’t unusual. In all of 1992, as recorded by Gallup,
voter satisfaction never climbed above 24 percent.
The president’s job approval rating was nearly as bad. By
August 1992, it bottomed out at 29 percent.
Just as Gore had perfectly wonderful poll numbers in 2000, George
H.W. Bush had perfectly awful figures in 1992.
Now, despite everything that has happened recently, George W. Bush
is in a much better situation than his father was.
And a big part of his job from now until November will be to target
those people who aren’t happy with the way things are going
right now but believe Bush, and not John Kerry, can make things
better. |
