June 1, 2004

BY MARK BROWN SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST

Al-Qaida is planning to attack the United States within the next few months and to hit us hard, Attorney General John Ashcroft warned last week in a pre-summer scene-setter considerably more chilling than getting caught outside in a Memorial Day hailstorm.

Whether or not you believe this specific warning from Ashcroft, you know in your heart that it could happen. We're still vulnerable, maybe not quite as vulnerable as we were 33 months ago, but probably pretty close to it.

With the election fast approaching, this logically shapes up as prime time for a terrorist attack, not that there's necessarily much logic to it.

So in the interest of emergency preparedness, please regard the following to be in the nature of a suggestion, something to consider rather than just another know-it-all pronouncement.

If there is a terrorist attack, don't let it affect how you vote in November.

That's right. Take it off the table. It shouldn't be an issue.

That holds true no matter where you stand right now on picking a candidate.

If you support Bush, don't let an attack change your mind.

If you want him out, stand your ground.

If you're still undecided, find another basis on which to make your pick. If you're one of those people who always votes based on the economy, have at it. If you hadn't planned to vote, please leave the selection to those who take it seriously every year, not just when the world blows up.

Just don't let another attack on American soil scare you into voting one way or the other.

The last thing we need is for terrorists to find that they can disrupt our internal political process through acts of violence.

As you will recall, that seemed to be the lesson in Spain after the March 11 train bombings in Madrid, when Spaniards reversed course almost overnight and installed a new prime minister who stunned the Bush administration by bringing his troops home from Iraq. While what happened in Spain was a little more complicated than that, that's still the message that was sent.

That's why it seems worthwhile to plant this seed now, perhaps giving it a chance to take root before the next storm hits.

A long-term threat

If there is a terrorist attack here before the election, we shouldn't have to swallow any nonsense about it now being more important than ever to rally around the president. It won't be.

Neither should there be any panicky calls to dump Bush as if he were to blame. It won't be that simple.

Terrorism, we now must realize, is an ongoing, long-term threat.

We can't let ourselves be manipulated by individual terrorist attacks.

If Al Gore had been president, it's no less likely that terrorists would have struck on Sept. 11.

No matter who we elect as president for the next four years, terrorism will continue to loom over us. Terrorist attacks against the United States are not a reaction to Bush any more than they were a reaction to Clinton.

Keep an eye on the big picture

This is not to suggest that terrorism and our response to it shouldn't be election issues, quite the opposite. I don't see anything more important this election year.

But we need to cast our votes looking at the big picture taking the long view, not in the emotional context that would be sure to immediately follow any terrorist strike. If you can think back to the last quarter of 2001, there was almost a national state of depression that descended over America. It was not an atmosphere conducive to clear thinking.

That's why I'm suggesting to give this some thought now so that you can hold tight to your principles if the situation becomes more complicated later. That could prove considerably more valuable than stocking up again on duct tape.

Evaluate the Bush presidency on the basis of whether you think going to war with Iraq was beneficial or harmful to our overall national security aims, remembering that the so-called war on terrorism could take decades to fight. Evaluate him on how he handled Afghanistan.

Some of us think the war in Iraq was a needless diversion that weakened our position in the world, costing us allies in the bigger fight while resupplying the pipeline of future terrorists.

Others believe the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's murderous regime was worth the fallout, especially if we succeed in replacing him with a democratic government.

There are still many possible developments that might legitimately change your thinking about the election: the capture of Osama bin Laden, the outcome of investigations into the Iraqi prisoner abuse scandal, the turnover of control in Iraq.

But strange as it may seem, another deadly attack on America shouldn't be one of them.