With a technology industry being scolded about needing to help create rain, out comes a very pivotal website link that only verifies that the work of angels deserves recognition and rewards from those who profit from materialism.
Scenario Building Experiment for Year 2010 - Telecommunications Industry & Information Technology
This is a simple scenario building excercise for a Telecommunications & Information Technology which I thought of conducting online. This is just an experimnent and the results of this could lead us to opportunities and warn us about coming Threats. I invite one and all, related with it to participate in it. The book "The Art of Long View" by Peter Schwartz the master scenario-builder said that in such an excercise, it is important to learn the opinion of everyone related to the focus of the scenario...and so here we go....
The year 2010 is six years into future. I believe that by then many of things we see in our daily lives, will change. I attribute this change to the power of technology. Since a scenario must have a focal point, let ours be the telecommunications industry. Before we begin with the scenario excercise, it is important to understand the existing value-chain which, in future, undergo tumultous changes. The main stakeholders in telecom services are:
Forgive me, If inadvertently, I have missed out on any crucuial entity. Please feel free to add them if neccesary....
By the year 2010, I foresee that Next generation networks would set in whereby, your mobile handset will become a node on the internet, and then all voice and data will travel through the Web. Such mobile devices may have biggere screens and may run on simpler interfaces like Windows CE. This has serious implications as mentioned below:
1) Today the revenue for value-added-services gets shared between the content provider and the service provider such that the proportion of content provider is less. But in the times of our scenario, the user will be able to access a sea of content directly from the Web. So I foresee that the future of Content generation is doubtful. On the other hand this will open opportunities for those who would adapt the content for easy-viewing on a PDA / Mobile phone.
Having said that, a scenario doesnt need to be so higly focussed. In fact it must discuss the various social / technological / political changes which may impact the way we consume telecom services. I invite your comments and contribution to this online scenario building experiment. And the most compelling reason to do this is because 'it is easy to think about an experiment than experiment with thinking'.
.......well there you have it localized service apps delivered wirelessly over MPLS enabled low latency near-real time networks across global boundaries with secuiry quarantines
also kash, i'm sure it's hit u too... but this approach is a great way to create a biz plan in Open Source mode wot say? :)
i was toying with the idea last week... but dint know about this scenario building thing... good to see it so soon... cheers.
there could be a ton of other apps on these lines... which, in my view, is the other power of the Internet... it has the ability to allow limitless competition unlike a conventional marketplace / old economy industry.
Kaushal80: "the future of Content generation is doubtful"... yes as far as basis for a business.... but content generation per se will only accelerate....
....and post our discussion on app development for converged products you could chk out this one: http://www.geodesiconline.com/htm/products/products.htm (by the way, mundu is one of the things passionfund.com has invested in)
I was about to cite this but have been busy with other post and items............expect Craiglist to morped into a a global loacalized app..............craiglisted will be to localized apps what google is to search............I have much more to add but other business outside AO demands most of attention lately..........
i agree that there will be more localised applications. i think that content development would be almost "automatic" and effortless in a localised scenario... members of a local community (maybe a city or a group of cities) would generate it in a distributed self-sustaining way... so no need for a specific local content generator... only content aggregator. already examples exist: http://www.craiglist.com .
Hey that sounds good. This also implies that local content development is another opportunity which we must pursue now, to take advatage of it tommorow. As you said Net-centric locals would be the code for the day and it increasingly implies that local content development starting today, will bear fruits by then. wot say? Moreover, do you think this kind of availability will change our social habbits??
The network will be asked to perform atleast 5 of the task mention beow 24/7 with six 9s uptime:
-near real time, very low latency across multiple AS [autonomous systems]
-Universal MPLS throughout any broadband network
-Security quaranteen on diverse AS
-Voice activated service request from any node [keyboards will be history]
-Your serivce profile are you applications
Applications of the future will be based on local usage not universal availability across a network. Why offer something somewhere it won't be used. Net-centric locals will be the most desirable palces to live regardless of national economy. Look for a up surge of people opting out of heavily urbanized areas when they broadband to any resource needed form any sunny isle...........to some extent this being done already. In asia they have a cellular braodband satellite linkup whcih you can use anywhere in SE asia.......
jch, could you please elaborate on the application getting embedded into network functionality please? And more on "distributed ad hoc resources based on localized comsumption curves......." too please?
......and thus we are twice bless with you prescient insight.......
but seriously........since I believe that broadband will be the transactional platform for the future global economy it means that the application will be embedded into the network functionality. Think distributed ad hoc resources based on localized comsumption curves.......
Your model could use a bit more grandularity.......but I know it is merely a proforma template......
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ANGELS KNOW ABOUT SCALAR ELECTROMAGNETICS FOR RAIN
The year 2010 is six years into future. I believe that by then many of things we see in our daily lives, will change. I attribute this change to the power of technology. Since a scenario must have a focal point, let ours be the telecommunications industry. Before we begin with the scenario excercise, it is important to understand the existing value-chain which, in future, undergo tumultous changes. The main stakeholders in telecom services are:
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