The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the New Hampshire Presidential Primary shows New York Senator Hillary Clinton leading Illinois Senator Barack Obama by fifteen percentage points, 37% to 22%. In fact, Obama is closer to the third and fourth place candidates than he is to the frontrunner.
Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards attracts support from 14% of Likely Democratic Primary voters while New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson attracts 9%. Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich is at 4% and Delaware Senator Joe Biden is at 2% in the poll. Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd and former Alaska Senator fail to reach 1% while 11% remain undecided.
Yesterday, Rasmussen Reports released general election match-ups for New Hampshire and three other states (Colorado, Florida, and Ohio).
Clinton also holds a significant lead nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Her lead in New Hampshire, while still substantial, has declined somewhat from the previous Rasmussen Reports poll in this state.
Clinton is viewed favorably by 79% of Likely Primary Voters and unfavorably by 19%.
Obama is viewed favorably by 80% and unfavorably by 14%.
Those figures include 37% with a Very Favorable opinion of Clinton and 31% with a Very Favorable opinion of Obama.
Clinton continues to benefit from a significant gender gap in the polling. Forty-four percent (44%) of women have a Very Favorable opinion of the former First Lady, a view shared by just 29% of men.
The frontrunner leads Obama by 21 points among women voters in New Hampshire but only by nine among men.
Perceptions of the Democratic race in New Hampshire may have a significant impact on the Republican Primary as well. In New Hampshire, unaffiliated voters can participate in either party’s Presidential Primary. At this point in time, most independent voters say they are likely to vote in the Democratic Primary. These voters are more supportive of Obama than Clinton.
If the race does not look competitive as the voting day draws near, some independents might choose to participate in the Republican Primary. This happened in Election 2000 when it became clear that Al Gore would defeat Bill Bradley. A significant number of independents then chose to vote in the Republican Primary which helped John McCain win the biggest victory of his political career.
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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.