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New Hampshire Primary: Clinton Holds Solid Lead
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The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the New Hampshire Presidential Primary shows New York Senator Hillary Clinton leading Illinois Senator Barack Obama by fifteen percentage points, 37% to 22%. In fact, Obama is closer to the third and fourth place candidates than he is to the frontrunner.

Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards attracts support from 14% of Likely Democratic Primary voters while New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson attracts 9%. Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich is at 4% and Delaware Senator Joe Biden is at 2% in the poll. Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd and former Alaska Senator fail to reach 1% while 11% remain undecided.

Yesterday, Rasmussen Reports released general election match-ups for New Hampshire and three other states (Colorado, Florida, and Ohio).

Clinton also holds a significant lead nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Her lead in New Hampshire, while still substantial, has declined somewhat from the previous Rasmussen Reports poll in this state.

Clinton is viewed favorably by 79% of Likely Primary Voters and unfavorably by 19%.

Obama is viewed favorably by 80% and unfavorably by 14%.

Those figures include 37% with a Very Favorable opinion of Clinton and 31% with a Very Favorable opinion of Obama.

Clinton continues to benefit from a significant gender gap in the polling. Forty-four percent (44%) of women have a Very Favorable opinion of the former First Lady, a view shared by just 29% of men.

The frontrunner leads Obama by 21 points among women voters in New Hampshire but only by nine among men.

Perceptions of the Democratic race in New Hampshire may have a significant impact on the Republican Primary as well. In New Hampshire, unaffiliated voters can participate in either party’s Presidential Primary. At this point in time, most independent voters say they are likely to vote in the Democratic Primary. These voters are more supportive of Obama than Clinton.

If the race does not look competitive as the voting day draws near, some independents might choose to participate in the Republican Primary. This happened in Election 2000 when it became clear that Al Gore would defeat Bill Bradley. A significant number of independents then chose to vote in the Republican Primary which helped John McCain win the biggest victory of his political career.

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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”

Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

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