Florida Survey of 500 Likely Voters
August 9, 2007

Rudy Giuliani (R) vs.
Hillary Clinton (D)

Rudy Giuliani (R)

44%

Hillary Clinton (D)

49%

Fred Thompson (R) vs.
Hillary Clinton (D)

Fred Thompson (R)

40%

Hillary Clinton (D)

53%

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Clinton Leads GOP Hopefuls in Florida
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Senator Hillary Clinton leads all Republican hopefuls in the race for Florida’s 27 Electoral College votes. The Sunshine State cast its votes for the Republicans in each of George W. Bush’s election victories. If those Electoral Votes were cast for the Democrats in 2008, it would be a huge swing and make a Republican victory difficult to achieve.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone polls in Florida shows Clinton leading Republican frontrunner Rudy Giuliani by five, Fred Thompson by 13, John McCain by 14, and Mitt Romney by 22. Perhaps most significantly, Clinton’s support tops the 50% mark against all the candidates other than Giuliani (she leads Giuliani 49% to 44%). In national polling, Clinton struggles to reach the 50% mark because people have very strong feelings about her—both positive and negative. Forty-six percent (46%) of all voters say they will vote against Clinton if she is on the ballot in 2008.

Click here to see toplines.

Giuliani and Thompson have been topping the national GOP nomination polls for months. Clinton is dominating the Democratic field and is currently the party’s default nominee.

Republicans can take some heart in the fact that GOP Governor Charlie Crist remains very popular. Sixty-four percent (64%) of Florida voters say he is doing a good or an excellent job. Twenty-eight percent (28%) say fair while only 7% believe Crist is doing a poor job.

Those numbers are much stronger than President Bush can muster. Thirty-six percent (36%) of the state’s voters give the President good or excellent marks while 14% say he’s doing a fair job and 50% say poor.

As for the 2008 hopefuls, Clinton is viewed favorably by 54% and unfavorably by 44%.

Giuliani is the best liked of all the candidates, 60% favorable and 35% unfavorable. Thompson’s numbers are 49% favorable and 35% unfavorable. McCain is viewed favorably by 40% while another 46% have an unfavorable opinion of the man once viewed as the GOP frontrunner. Romney’s numbers are a bit better than McCain’s—43% favorable and 43% unfavorable.

While Giuliani is currently the GOP frontrunner, it is far from clear that he will be the nominee Another GOP hopeful, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is hoping that his success in an Iowa straw poll will push him into the top-tier, but he’s not there yet.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc. Click below to see a Video Report featuring Scott Rasmussen.

Florida remains one of the key battleground states for Election 2008. Over the coming weeks, Rasmussen Reports will release general election polling data for all states decided by five percentage points or less in the last Presidential Election. Today’s releases include results for Colorado, New Hampshire, and Ohio.

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The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Rasmussen Reports’ Election 2006 coverage has been praised for its accuracy and reliability. Michael Barone, Senior Writer for U.S. News & World Report and co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, mentions, “One clear lesson from the Republican victory of 2004 and the Democratic victory of 2006 is that the best place to look for polls that are spot on is RasmussenReports.com." And University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato states, “In election campaigns, I’ve learned to look for the Rasmussen results. In my experience, they are right on the money. There is no question Rasmussen produces some of the most accurate and reliable polls in the country today.”

Rasmussen Reports was also the nation's most accurate polling firm during the 2004 Presidential election and the only one to project both Bush and Kerry's vote total within half a percentage point of the actual outcome.

During both Election 2004 and Election 2006, RasmussenReports.com was the top-ranked public opinion research site on the web. We had twice as many visitors as our nearest competitor and nearly as many as all competitors combined.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

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