Former Senator Fred Thompson first announced that he might be available for the Republican Presidential nomination nearly six months ago. Since then, he has done well in the polls, missed a few possible dates to formally enter the campaign, skipped several Republican Presidential “debates”, and inevitably faced questions as to whether he waited too long to enter the race. Last week, he finally made it official and had the stage to himself while other candidates scrambled for attention in yet another candidate “debate.”

The early returns are encouraging for Thompson and his team. Despite the fact that his intentions have been far from secret for a very long time, the actor and politician is enjoying a nice bounce in the polls since making his announcement. He now leads in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for the first time since July.

Thompson’s gains since announcing have come primarily among conservatives likely to vote in a Republican Primary. In polling completed since his announcement, Thompson leads Giuliani by 12-points among conservative primary voters. That’s up from a five-point edge before the announcement. Conservatives account for more than 60% of GOP primary voters. Two-thirds of Republican voters view Giuliani as politically moderate or liberal.

In addition to Thompson’s announcement, Giuliani may have lost some ground by proclaiming on CNN that illegal immigration is not a crime. That view is especially difficult in a Republican primary environment, but voters nationwide continue to have strong feelings on the need to improve border security and reduce illegal immigration.

At one level, Thompson’s bounce highlights the fact that much of what passed for a campaign during the summer was fairly meaningless to most Americans (most voters say the Presidential debates are “boring” and “useless.” It was entertaining for reporters and political junkies, but most voters weren’t paying attention.

However, any time a politician enjoys a nice bounce in the polls, some caution is required. When numbers move up quickly, they often reverse course just as quickly. This caution is especially appropriate true for Thompson. To date, he has managed to avoid the withering grind of campaign events, questions, and debates that have challenged the other candidates. Now, he will have to compete on equal terms with the others he hopes to defeat.

Getting your message out on the Tonight Show is much different that getting a message out as one of many candidates clamoring for attention in a network debate format. In addition to learning how to compete in that environment, Thompson will have the added disadvantage of learning to do so while starting at the top.

The bottom line is that the race for the Republican Presidential nomination remains essentially where it has been for months. The only substantive difference is that we are finally getting close to learning the answer of the defining question—is Fred Thompson for real? We are likely to learn that answer in the next month or two. If his performance and organization can live up to the image he has created, Thompson could shock the political pundits who have their doubts about him. If not, the campaign may come down to a competition between Giuliani and Romney, with Giuliani having the edge.

Rasmussen Reports conducts national telephone surveys on the Presidential race every night and releases updated data from our Presidential Tracking Poll by noon each day, Monday through Friday. Those results are based upon a four-day rolling average and provide a quick update on the race.

In addition to the daily tracking poll, Rasmussen Reports provides weekly results to provide a longer-term overview of the race. These updates are based upon nightly telephone surveys. Results are reported based upon interviews conducted on the seven days up to and including the night before posting.

For the seven days ending September 9, 2007 show that Fred Thompson earns 24% of the vote while Rudy Giuliani attracts 23%. They are followed by Mitt Romney at 13%, John McCain at 12%, Mike Huckabee at 6%, and four other candidates who split 4% of the vote while 17% are undecided. Those other four candidates, mentioned by name in the polling question, are Sam Brownback, Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, and Tom Tancredo (review history of weekly results).

The seven day results typically include interviews with more than 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters. This includes both Republicans and those independents likely to vote in a Republicans Primary. In some state primaries, independent voters are allowed to participate in party primaries while in others they are excluded. The margin of sampling error for the weekly update is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Updates prior to July 16 were based upon four days of polling conducted the Monday through Thursday preceding release.

Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other key stats for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates.