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Date Created: 8/9/2007 1:06:04 PM
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Odds Signs: Suspicious betting on tennis matches

Last week’s match-fixing scare has thrown betting in tennis into the spotlight, but it’s not the first time questions about strange betting patterns have arisen. To get some context about whether there’s a problem and how big it might be, we go through the matches that have attracted the most suspicion amongst bookmakers.

In consultation with Onthepunt.com

          Betting Terms Explained

Betting Exchange/Betfair – A kind of stock exchange for bettors. Just as you buy shares on the stock exchange if you think they’re cheap (undervalued), you back a selection to win with Betfair if you believe the odds are generous. And just as you sell a share when you think it’s too expensive (overvalued), on Betfair you lay a selection (offer odds to other bettors) when you feel the odds aren’t generous enough.

As a result, odds drift up or down depending on market consensus about what the odds should be.

Decimal Odds – the ones used in this article. They display the return to one unit should your selection win, including the stake. E.g, if you bet $1 on a player to win at 3.00 and he does win, you receive $3 – $2.00 profit, plus your $1 staked.

If the player loses, you naturally lose your $1. It goes to the other party in the bet (the bookmaker or the bettor offering the odds).

In-running – Betting on the outcome of a match during the match.


          Turning Knowledge into Profit
How to make money by knowing the result of a tennis match in advance

1. Bet on the result – the simplest way, but limits on the size of single bets may limit returns

2. Bet on the score – the odds of a player winning a match by a certain score (straight sets, two sets to one) are longer than the odds on a simple win-loss because it’s a more specific outcome and therefore more difficult to predict. A correct bet therefore yields more money.

Odds on an exact score (e.g. 6-4, 6-4) are longer still, but such precise manipulation would be extremely difficult.

3. Offer long odds on the favorite winning – this can be done on betting exchanges like Betfair, where bettors both lay bets (offer odds) and take them. By offering longer odds on the expected outcome than others, you collect more wagers. When the favorite loses, as you know he will, you collect the bets placed.

4. Bet mid-match on an apparently unlikely outcome – on betting exchanges like Betfair, odds change as the match progresses, depending on which player looks likely to win. Bettors who know the planned result can accept bets on a player who is up a set and a break but intends to lose, or bet on a player who has deliberately gone down early but intends to make a comeback. The latter is more difficult to execute, but is a possibility when a higher-ranked player meets a much lower-ranked player.

5. 1. – 4. in various combinations – increase the number of bets in play, thus increasing returns. Also avoid having to make large single bets, which are more noticeable.

Periodic suspicions about match-fixing have cropped up within the betting industry for the last few years, but the nature of the match and the amount of money involved in the meeting between Nikolay Davydenko and Martin Vassallo Arguello appears to have brought things to a head.

British betting exchange Betfair voided all bets traded on the match, an exceptional step that brought the incident to public attention.

There can often be valid reasons for unusual betting fluctuations on a tennis match. The players’ travel schedules, lack of preparation, or genuine injury concerns are all factors that can cause a market to swing. Moreover, suspect betting does not mean one or both players are necessarily involved – details about a player’s physical or mental condition can be known to several people and provide insight into the likely outcome of a match.

Over the last three or four years, several bookmakers have shared information and kept lists of results they consider dubious. This list has grown quite large over time – over 100 matches – but note: a match does not necessarily have to be deemed ‘fixed’ to get on the list. Also included are matches where the outcome is deemed to have been ‘known’ – that is, a bettor or bettors had very valuable knowledge about the likely result which bookmakers and the public did not.

Bookmakers make note of all such matches because of the financial impact they incur as a result, but of course, the public at large is concerned mostly with the possibility of results being deliberately manipulated for gambling purposes. Tennis is more vulnerable than many sports to the impact of match-fixing attempts because one player can single-handedly determine the outcome of a match. Below is a selected list of the matches which have attracted some of the most suspicion.

The allegations range from deliberate fixing to predetermined tanking by a player. Again, these are allegations only, made by those involved in bookmaking or wagering in tennis on a daily basis. No specific conclusions can be drawn about any involvement or intent on the part of the losing or winning player.

The vast majority of suspected matches occurred at lower-level events, helping to assuage worries about problems at bigger events. Women's matches have generally not created the same level of suspicion among the betting industry, and the lower volume of betting makes the potential returns on WTA matches less lucrative. Some  players appear more than once on the selected list, with Davydenko involved in another controversial retirement two years ago. Matches are often also between compatriots or friends, or in some cases between players with very different rankings – the player with the higher ranking usually accused of manipulating the score. However, as noted, the list below is a selection of the matches which appear most suspicious.

The list also includes at least one match where the result was the opposite of the suspected fix. Cold feet or misplaced doubts? Draw your own conclusions.


Martin Vassalo Arguello (ARG) def. Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) 2-6, 6-3, 2-1, ret.   Sopot August, 2007
Allegation: Match Fixing.

Bookies suspect the result was fixed in Vassallo Arguello’s favor, with both players possibly involved. 
Betting Pattern: World No. 4 Davydenko was the bookmakers’ favorite several hours before the match (1.18-1.20) while No. 87 Vassallo Arguello was a heavy underdog at 5.75. Then an hour or so before the match, the odds swung in favor of Vassallo Arguello on Betfair – he went from a 6.00 long-shot into a 1.51 favorite. Davydenko, meanwhile, went from a 1.11 favorite to a 3.00 underdog. Over $1.1 million was traded before the match began.

When Davydenko won the first set 6-2, bettors could have been forgiven for thinking that the match was indeed not a fix – yet Vassallo Arguello was still trading as a remarkable 1.65 favourite. When he broke in the first game of the second set to go up 1-0, he became a heavier favorite (1.27) and when serving at 2-1 – still down a set – he was trading as a near certainty (1.06). After wrapping up the second set with a Davydenko forehand error, Vassallo Arguello was at 1.20.

Davydenko had started to receive assistance from a trainer on his left foot during the second set and despite getting more attention at the start of the third, Vassallo Arguello’s price drifted from 1.20 to 1.35 – perhaps a sign that those involved had stopped trading. Finally, with the market settled at 1.10, Davydenko retired at 2-1 on serve in the 3rd set. Over $7.2 million had been traded on the match with Betfair.
Result: Vassallo Arguello wins when Davydenko retires in the third set. Betfair consults with integrity investigators and takes the unprecedented step of voiding all wagers traded on the match, saying, "We felt the betting on this match was clearly unfair."
 
Michal Przysiezny (POL) def. Filippo Volandri (ITA) 6-4, 2-6, 7-5  Sopot August, 2007
Allegation: Tanking/ Match Fixing.

That Volandri ‘sold’ (tanked) the first set, in order to lengthen his mid-match odds, with the players left to battle it out in the third.
Betting Pattern: No. 29 Volandri rightly started as a heavy 1.10 favorite against No. 237 Przysiezny. The Italian’s price then drifted dramatically to 1.80 before the match began – an enormous price movement.
Result: Przysiezny wins 7-5 in the third set. Much suspicion amongst punters in the Betfair online forums.
 
Filippo Volandri (ITA) def. Frederico Luzzi (ITA) 4-6, 7-5, 6-1  Bastad July, 2007
Allegation: Fixing/Market Manipulation.
Betting Pattern: Volandri drifted from 1.15 to 1.40 pre-match. Luzzi led 6-4 4-2 but with Betfair, bettors could still back him mid-match at 1.63 - a much bigger price than expected when leading a set and break. The market then changed completely at Betfair with Volandri suddenly becoming a 1.50 favorite to win the match despite still being down a set and a break.
Result: Volandri in three sets.
 
Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) def. Yuri Schukin (RUS) 6-4, 3-6, 6-2  Barcelona April, 2007
Allegation: Set-Score Fixing/Market Manipulation
Betting Pattern: High volume of money traded in-running on Davydenko at 1.02/1.03 when he was cruising early on. Then, strangely enough, the money came back when Davydenko was down 0-2 in the third set but this time to back him at 1.40. Davydenko wins last six games.
Result: Davydenko wins the last six games. Davydenko was not in great form and did later pull from the tournament citing a wrist injury but should he have dropped a set in this manner to a played ranked 200 spots above him?
 
Juan-Pablo Guzman (ARG) def. Kevin Kim (USA) 6-4, 6-2  Acapulco February, 2007
Allegation: Intended Match Fixing.
Betting Pattern: An Argentine claycourter due to face an American, Guzman changed from a 1.40 favorite to a 4.50 underdog on Betfair before the match begun. Kim went from 3.50 to as short as 1.20.
Result: Not all went according to plan for those involved in the pre-match betting as Guzman romped to a 6-4 6-2 victory. A significant $500,000 traded at Betfair on the relatively obscure first-round match.
 
Gustavo Kuerten (BRA) def. Filippo Volandri (ITA) 6-3, 6-1  Brazil February, 2007
Allegation: Tanking.
Betting Pattern: Volandri's odds slowly dropped on betting exchange Betfair before the match; bookmakers are relatively unaffected. Kuerten was on a seven-match losing streak since making a comeback as was listed at 4.50 to win with bookmakers.
Result: Kuerten wins with ease.
 
Lleyton Hewitt (AUS) def. Janko Tipsarevic (SRB) 6-1, 4-2 ret.  Adelaide January, 2007
Allegation: Intention to win or retire.
Betting Pattern: A large amount of money was placed on Tipsarevic to win with one bookmaker. His odds also dropped with most bookmakers that only pay out if a match is completed or if at least two sets are completed. But his price didn’t move as much with bookmakers that pay out as long as the match starts or if at least one set is completed. This meant that punters who backed Tipsarevic could have a "free" bet on him to win and would not lose their money as long as he did not complete the match.
Result: Tipsarevic retired in the second set so most bets placed on him were refunded.
 
Julien Benneteau (FRA) def. Sergio Roitman (ARG) 6-3, 6-0  Moscow October, 2006
Allegation: Tanking.
Betting Pattern: Benneteau’s odds go from 1.32 to 1.03 shortly before the match after little movement the day before the match.
Result: Benneteau wins easily. A significant pre-match betting move indicating that someone knew that Roitman would not be competitive.
 
Martin Vassallo Arguello (ARG) Juan-Pablo Guzman (ARG) 2-6, 6-3, 7-5 Palermo September, 2006 
Allegation: Match Fixing.
First-round match. Massive betting fluctuation in the match suggesting that it was always going to go three sets.
Betting Pattern: Guzman was hammered down from 2.60 to 1.20 before the match. He won the first set as expected. Then with the score at 6-2 2-0, large amounts of money came to lay (betting against) Guzman (indicating strong expectation that he'd lose the 2nd set). The best man was left to fight out the decider.
Result: The match went three sets, with Vassallo-Arguello winning in the third.
 
Martin Vassallo Arguello (ARG) def. Oscar Hernandez (ESP) 2-6, 6-4, 6-4 Palermo September, 2006
Allegation: Match Fixing.

Second-round match. A Vassallo comeback was expected given the market movement in the final set.
Betting Pattern: Hernandez’s odds to win the match was strangely high (2.50) when he leading 4-2 in the deciding set. This may well have been injury-related but unusual betting patterns were still notable.
Result: Vassallo wins the last four games of match.
 
Nicolas Almagro (ARG) def. Martin Vassallo Arguello (ARG) 6-2, 6-2  Palermo September, 2006
Allegation: Tanking.
Betting Patterns: Odds on Almagro to win in straight sets was backed down to 1.20 on Betfair just before the match was due to begin. This was the third time in a week that a match involving Vassallo Arguello aroused suspicion.
Result: Easy straight-sets win to Almagro. A significant pre-match betting move indicating that someone knew that Vassallo would not be competitive.
 
Filippo Volandri (ITA) def. Simone Vagnozzi (ITA) 3-6, 6-2, 6-2  Bucharest September, 2006
Allegation: Match Fixing.
Betting Pattern: Volandri playing a lower-ranked Italian, No. 194 Vagnozzi. Lots of money was taken well under the expected odds for Volandri to win in three sets. The 2-1 set result was traded from 4.50 into 1.70 - a massive move – one that indicates near-certain expectation that the match would go three sets and be won by Volandri.
Result: The pre-match betting move was confirmed when Volandri won two sets to one
 
Mikhail Youzhny (RUS) def. Potito Starace (ITA) 6-0, 6-4, 6-3  Wimbledon June, 2006
Allegation: Straight-Sets Tanking.

Starace’s game is certainly not suited to grass, but there was a massive gamble on the straight sets option.
Betting Pattern: Over $400,000 was traded at Betfair on Youzhny to win in straight sets. Youzhny started at 1.19 to win the match by any score and 1.22 to win in straight sets – strangely, almost the same odds.
Result: Youzhny in straight sets. A significant pre-match betting move indicating that someone knew that Starace would not be competitive.
 
Dick Norman (BEL) def. Edgardo Massa (ARG) 6-1, 6-3, 6-3  French Open May, 2006
Allegation: Match Fixing/Tanking.
Betting Pattern: Massa had looked impressive in qualifying, but there was a massive betting swing against him in the first round. It was a clear early pre-match move. Maas went from a solid early favourite to Norman starting the match as a 1.50 favourite.
Result: Dick Norman in straight sets. Again, a significant pre-match betting move indicating that someone knew that Massa would not be competitive.
 
Ilia Bozoljac (SRB) def. Daniele Bracciali (ITA) 6-4, 7-6  Zagreb January, 2006
Allegation: Tanking.
Betting Pattern: Bracciali drifted from 1.33 to 1.67 on Betfair and 1.77 with one bookmaker. There were a few early signs but plenty of bookmakers were caught out. Same punters involved as with other suspect matches.
Result: Bozoljac wins.
 
Sargis Sargsian (ARM) def. Nikolay Davydenko (RUS) 6-1, 1-0  Gstaad July, 2005
Allegation:Pre-determined Retirement.
Betting Pattern: Davydenko opened up as a prohibitive 1.10 favourite. Some bettors backed Sargsian at massive odds with bookies that require just one set to be completed (not as many bookies at the time required the match to be complete for bets to stand). The two bookmakers are so convinced of improper action that they refuse to pay out.
Result: Possibly related to a genuine injury, but the timing of the Davydenko retirement was highly suspicious given the pre-match betting trends.
 
Julien Benneteau (FRA) def. Sargis Sargsian (ARM) 6-0, 6-3 
Victor Hanescu (ROM) def. Anthony Dupuis (FRA) 6-1, 6-4
Jeff Morrison (USA) def. Stefan Koubek (AUT) 6-4, 6-2
Miami February, 2005
Allegation: Match Fixing/Tanking.

A group of bettors are alleged to be involved.
Betting Pattern: All three matches were bet on in a multiple/parlay bet with at least ten different bookmakers. Betfair markets were relatively unaffected. Money was left with bookmakers for a period of time to avoid suspicion.
Result: Again, some injuries may have been involved, but results of all three matches correspond with the bet.
 
Mariano Zabaleta (ARG) def. Mariano Puerta (ARG) 6-4, 6-2  Brazil February, 2005
Allegation: Tanking.
Betting Pattern: Zabaleta was heavily backed at Betfair. Money for Zabaleta to win in straight sets was also placed with some bookies.
Result: Easy Zabalata win. A significant pre-match betting move indicating that someone knew that Puerta would not be competitive.
 
Albert Portas (ESP) def. Martin Vassallo Arguello (ARG) 6-1, 6-2  Sopot August, 2004
Allegation: Tanking.

Back at the venue where it all happened last week.
Betting Pattern: Both players were ranked around No. 150 and odds were about the same. But betting in Portas’ favor resulted in his odds dropping and made him a heavy favorite. Again, a significant pre-match betting move indicating that someone knew that Vassallo would not be competitive.
Result: Portas wins easily.
 


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