Spanish general election, 2008

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Legislative elections for the Spanish Cortes Generales will be held on March 9[1], 2008. The elections are for 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies, and the 208 directly elected seats in the upper house, the Senate. The elections are commonly referred to as 9-M in the Spanish media.

Contents

[edit] Candidates and Coalitions

By tradition, it is considered that the first candidate on each Madrid party list for the Congress of Deputies is the Prime Ministerial candidate for that party. Nationalist parties who will not win enough seats to be serious contenders for the office of Prime Minister usually designate one of their list leaders as their main candidate. These candidates are generally featured more prominently in the Spanish national media than other list leaders or candidates. Regional, provincial and local media nearly always cover the activities of the Prime Ministerial candidates, together with the leading candidates in their area.

[edit] Spanish Socialist Worker's Party

As in 2004, the governing Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) will be led by Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero. Mr Zapatero was the only PSOE candidate who sought the nomination and he was therefore proclaimed candidate on November 25th 2007 at a rally in Fuenlabrada,Madrid. The PSOE will run in all Spanish constituencies. In Catalonia their federated party the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) operate as part of the PSOE's ticket.

The current Deputy Prime Minister María Teresa Fernández de la Vega will lead the list in the province of Valencia and is expected to continue as Deputy Prime Minister if the PSOE wins the elections.

Jose Bono, former Minister of Defence and President of Castile-La Mancha for 21 years, will lead the list in Toledo and will be elected President of the Congress of Deputies if the PSOE wins the elections.

After some discussion due to the need for ensuring the future support of the President for his economic policy and his intentions to retire, the current Second Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance Pedro Solbes, will be second on the Madrid list and will continue in Government if the PSOE wins the election [2] The Socialist Party has suggested that the Property tax could be removed, since it discourages saving.

Other prominent politicians who lead provincial lists for the Socialist Party include the current Minister of Culture, César Antonio Molina, in A Coruña, the current Home Minister, Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba, in Cádiz, the Minister of Public Works, Magdalena Álvarez, in Málaga, the Minister of Housing, Carme Chacón, in Barcelona and the former Home Minister and current Minister of Defence José Antonio Alonso in León.

It is unclear which changes will take place in the PSOE if they lose the election. There were also relatively few disputes about the composition of the election lists, except for minor problems in the Balearic Island of Formentera and the capital. In Madrid the selection of the remaining candidates after the main members of the socialist leadership (the President Zapatero, the economical Second Vice President Solbes, and the electoral coordinator Jesús Caldera) had been chosen was unclear since the regional socialist federation recently changed their leadership. Beside this, UGT, an old federated socialist union, suggested presenting joint lists. The final decision by the PSOE leadership to include a deputy linked to UGT, Manuel de la Rocha ended the discussion.

[edit] People's Party

The People's Party (PP), will be led by Mariano Rajoy, former Vice Prime Minister and successor to the former Prime Minister José María Aznar. He was nominated as candidate by the National Board of Directors of the party on September 10, 2007[3]. PP will run in all the constituencies with its sister party the Navarrese People's Union (UPN) acting as part of the PP ticket in Navarre

Rajoy has chosen Manuel Pizarro, as his candidate for Second Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance[4]. Pizarro is the former chairman of Endesa, where he was noted for his criticism of the economic policies of Zapatero´s Government.

The People´s Party has previously suggested reducing taxes and raising the minimum threshold for Income Tax.

Were the People's Party to lose, there is speculation that their current leader will resign, which would open the door for Mayor of Madrid Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón or President of Madrid Esperanza Aguirre to succeed him. Some controversy took place when Mayor of Madid requested for a deputy seat, which was though like an attempt to prepare himself for succesion. The subsequent People´s Party leadership's refusal was considered by the press as a victory for Aguirre, preventing him from taking advantage in case of an electoral defeat[5]. Several media and political parties talked about a victory of the most radical, reactionary, sectors close to Aguirre over the moderate way represented by Gallardón[6]. Sources close to the People´s Party denied such interpretations. Some newspapers even speculated about the possibiliy of internal conflicts between the supporters of each politician [7]. However, as of January 20th, the appearance of both politicians at electoral events together has stopped or at least reduced criticism.[8] .

[edit] United Left

United Left (IU) is a coalition of several leftist movements. During the last legislature, there was certain internal fight between the main component of the coalition, the Communist Party (PC) and the the direction leaded by Llamazares. This lead to a primary election between November and October 2007. Those where contested by Gaspar Llamazares, the current General Coordinator of United Left and Margarita Sanz, the General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Valencian Country - the Valencian federation of the Communist Party of Spain[9]. On November 14th Llamazares was announced winner beating his contender by a wide margin. After that, three of the most critics members of the Communist Party, including the former leader of it, Felipe Alcaraz, were expelled of the Directive Committee.

IU will run in all constituencies, in many of them (e.g. Catalonia) they will probably run in coalition with other parties. In Catalonia, IU will run with Iniciativa per Catalunya Verds. Felipe Altcaraz executive chairman of PCE announced his intention not to seek nomination for Seville, another of the traditional PCE/IU seats and district where he had been deputy from 1993 to 2004, in the Andalusian Assembly of IU, after losing the provincial assembly, he will probably be substituted by the former mayor of Carmona Sebastián Martin Recio.[10]

The Assembly of IU in the Land of Valencia elected Antonio Montalban as it's leading candidate for Valencia, one of the traditional districts where IU or PCE have obtained deputies, against incumbent Isaura Navarro after some conflicts with the Federal Executive. There has been also some controversy about wich party to run with: the nationalist Bloc (a coalition of nationalist parties) or the former memeber of IU Republican Left, which was eventually elected.

[edit] Convergence and Union

In November 2007 Convergence and Union (CiU) designated their leader in Congress and leader of the Democratic Union of Catalonia Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida as main candidate. CiU will only contest the four Catalan provinces.

[edit] Republican Left of Catalonia

In August 2007, Republican Left of Catalonia designated their spokesman in the Catalan Parliament Joan Ridao i Martín as their leader for these elections. ERC will run in the provinces compromising the so-called Catalan Countries, but will participate in an electoral coalition with other nationalist parties in the Balearic Islands constituency called Unitat per les Illes.

[edit] Basque Nationalist Party

The Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ-PNV) have not yet nominated any main candidate as of October 21, 2007. PNV will run alone in the three Basque provinces. In Navarre they will be part of the Nafarroa Bai coalition.

[edit] Minor Parties in Congress

[edit] Reallocation of seats

Four districts - Córdoba, A Coruña, Soria and Vizcaya - will lose a seat in the Congress of Deputies. In contrast another four - Alicante, Almería, Murcia and Toledo, will gain a seat.

If the 2004 general election had been fought under the new distribution of seats, the ruling Socialist Party (PSOE) would have lost one seat in both La Coruña and Vizcaya, while the opposition People's Party (PP) would have had one seat fewer in Córdoba as well as in Soria. However, PSOE would have captured the additional seats in Alicante, Murcia and Toledo, whereas PP would have only won the newly-added seat in Almería. In all, PSOE would have made a net gain of one seat, for a total of 165, while PP would have come down by one, to 147 seats. [11]

[edit] Campaigns

Although the official electoral campaign period in Spain only lasts for the 15 days before the election, (with the exception of the day just before the election), many parties, especially the PP and PSOE, start their "pre-campaigns" months in advance, often before having finalised their electoral lists.

[edit] PSOE

The first phase campaign was done under the slogan "Con Z de Zapatero" (With Z of Zapatero), a joke based on the Prime Minister and socialist candidate's habit of tending to pronounce words ending with D as if they ended with Z. The campaign was linked to terms like equality (Igualdad-Igualdaz) or solidarity (Solidaridad-Solidaridaz), emphasizing the policies carried out by the current government. The second phase was done under the slogan "La Mirada Positiva" (The Positive outlook), emphasising the future government platform.

[edit] PP

For the pre-campaign the PP has used the slogan "Con Rajoy es Posible" (With Rajoy it's Possible). Usually emphasizing PP's campaign proposals, such as "Llegar a fin de mes, Con Rajoy es Posible"(Making it to the end of the month, With Rajoy it's Possible". IU accused PP of copying its slogan from the last municipal elections[12]

[edit] IU

IU has chose the pre-campaign slogan "LlamazarES Izquierda Util" (LlamazarES (is) Useful Left), calling attention to their position as the third national party.

[edit] Campaign Issues

[edit] The Economy

The economy has become a major campaign issue due to a number of factors:

  • A slowing down in the housing market, with prices even beginning to fall in some areas.
  • Sharp increases in prices of some basic commodities.
  • Global instability as a result of market uncertainty.
  • A rise in unemployment.

The sudden emergence of the economy as a political issue comes after several years of steady economic growth, and has led some observers to suggest that maybe the government would have benefitted from calling an earlier election. [13] In addition to these factors both the PP and the PSOE have made competing proposals on taxation.

[edit] Polls

[edit] Polls of the CIS

PSOE PP IU CiU ERC PNV Others Blank
April 2004 45.8% 35.4% 4.9% 2.7% 2.3% 1.3% 6.5% 1.1%
July 2004 44.0% 36.8% 5.0% 2.8% 2.6% 1.5% 6.0% 1.3%
October 2004 42.1% 36.1% 5.5% 3.3% 2.0% 1.7% 7.6% 1.7%
January 2005 42.4% 35.7% 5.4% 2.9% 2.3% 1.5% 7.6% 2.2%
April 2005 41.2% 36.6% 5.2% 3.1% 2.1% 1.6% 8.0% 2.2%
July 2005 41.9% 36.4% 5.1% 3.2% 2.3% 1.8% 6.8% 2.5%
October 2005 39.7% 37.7% 4.8% 3.4% 2.4% 1.5% 7.7% 2.8%
January 2006 39.6% 38.0% 4.9% 3.6% 2.4% 1.5% 7.5% 2.5%
April 2006 40.3% 38.2% 5.4% 2.9% 2.0% 1.4% 7.5% 2.3%
July 2006 40.6% 36.9% 5.0% 3.2% 2.1% 1.4% 8.0% 2.8%
October 2006 39.3% 37.9% 5.1% 3.1% 2.8% 1.7% 6.8% 3.4%
January 2007 38.8% 37.6% 6.5% 3.2% 2.0% 1.4% 7.6% 2.9%
April 2007 39.6% 36.6% 5.6% 3.0% 2.4% 1.6% 7.6% 3.6%
July 2007 40.5% 37.0% 6.1% 2.9% 1.9% 1.5% 7.7% 2.4%
October 2007 39.7% 37.4% 5.5% 3.1% 2.1% 1.5% 8.3% 2.4%

[edit] Polls of the mass media

PSOE PP IU CiU ERC PNV UPyD Others Blank
ABC October 2007[14] 41.2% 39.3% 4.5% 2.5% 2.1% 1.1% — 6.1% 1.1%
La Vanguardia October 2007[15] 42.3% 39.6% 5.7% 2.5% 1.6% 1.1% — 6.0% 1.1%
Antena 3 TNS Demoscopia October 2007[16] 40.6% 39.5% 5.2% 3.2% 2.3% 1.4% 0.9% 6.0% 1.1%
El Mundo Sigma 2 November 2007 [17] 42.2% 39.1% 4.8% 3.0% 2.2% 1.3% — 7.4% 1.1%
CadenaSer Institute Opina November 2007 [18] 44.5% 38.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.9% 1.4% — 7.2% —
Antena 3 TNS Demoscopia November 2007[19] 41.4% 39.0% 5.5% 2.7% 2.3% 1.5% 0.8% 6.0% 1.1%
CadenaSer Institute Opina November 2007 (2nd week) [20] 45.0% 38.0% 4.0% 3.2% 1.7% 1.9% — 6.2% —
Periódico Publico November 2007 [21] 42.5% 37.4% 5.2% 2.8% 2.0% 1.5% — 8.6% —
Revista Temas[22] 40.7% 38.4% 5.3% 3.3% 2.0% 1.7% — 8.5% -
Antena 3 TNS Demoscopia December 2007[23] 42.0% 38.2% 5.5% 3.2% 1.9% 1.4% 1.0% 6.0% 1.1%
Ipsos Expansion December 2007[24] 41.3% 38.0% 5.3% 3.2% 2.1% 1.5% 1.3% 6.0% 1.1%

[edit] Polls of the Mass Media Showing a Seat prediction after January 2008

PSOE PP IU CiU ERC PNV CC UPyD Others Blank Unknown/Undecided
El Mundo, Sigma, January 2008[25] 41.9% 39.4% 5.0% 3.4% 2.2% 1.5% 0.9% - 5,6% 1,1% -
Predicted Seats 153 - 164 151 - 162 5 10 - 11 7 7 3 - 2 - 3 — -
La Vanguardia, INSTITUTO NOXA, January 2008[26] 42.5% 39.7% 5.3% 2.8% 1.7% 1.9% - - 6.1% 1.1% -
Predicted Seats 158 - 162 152 - 156 5 - 6 10 5 - 8 7 - 9 - - 6 - 8 — -
Público, OBRADOIRO DE SOCIOLOXIA, January 2008 [27] 43.0% 38.5% 5.6% 2.7% 1.6% 1.6% - 0.9% - — -
Predicted Seats 167 151 6 9 5 7 2 0 3 — -
Antena 3, TNS Demoscopia, January 2008[28][29] 41.9% 40.1% 4.8% 3.3% 1.8% 1.6% - - - — -
Predicted Seats 160-164 151-155 4-5 10-11 5-6 7-8 - - - — -
La Vanguardia, Instituto Noxa, January 2008[30] 42.3% 39.8% 5.1% 2.5% 1.8% 1.5% - - - — -
Predicted Seats 162-164 154-156 5 8 6 7 2 - 2 - -
El País, Sondeo-flash de Metroscopia, 17/01/2008[31] 34.6% 26.8% 3.9% - - - - - 6.9 % 3.0 % 16.6%
Predicted Seats - - - - - - - - - - -
La Vanguardia, NOXA [32] 42 % 40 % 5 % 2.5 % 1.5 % - - - - - -
Predicted Seats 160 155 5 8-10 5-6 - - - - - -
Antena 3, TNS Demoscopia, 21/01/2008[33][34] 41.6% 39.5% 5.1% 3.1 % 2.0 % 1.5 % 0.8 % 2.0 % - - -
Predicted Seats 160-164 149-153 4-5 10-11 6-7 7-8 3 1 - - -
Público, Obradoiro de sociología, 21/01/2008[35] 42.8% 39.2% 5.0% 2.6 % 1.7 % 1.6 % - - - - -
Predicted Seats - - - - - - - - - - -
Público, Obradoiro de sociología, 28/01/2008[36] 44.5% 38.7% 4.6% 2.8% 1.5% 1.6% – - - - -
Predicted Seats - - - - - - - - - - -
Cadena SER, Instituto Opina, 28/01/2008[37] 44.0% 38.0% 3.5% 3.0% 1.9% 1.6% - - 8.0% - -
Predicted Seats - - - - - - - - - - -
Antena 3[38]TNS Demoscopia (28/01/2008) 42.3% 39.6% 4.5 % 3.0 % 1.6 % 1.5 % - - - - -
Predicted Seats 162-166 151-155 4 9-10 6 7-8 - 4 0 - -

[edit] Polls of the Mass Media Showing a Seat prediction after February 2008

Poll PSOE PP IU CiU ERC PNV CC UPyD CHA Others blank Unknown/Undecided
ABC.[39]Instituto DYM (03/02/2008) 42.4 % 38.6 % 4.2 % - - - - - - 14.8 % - -
Predicted Seats - - - - - - - - - - - -
El País[40]Metroscopia (03/02/2008) 34.6% 24.9% 2.9 % 1.8 % 0.7 % 0.7 % - - 2.7 % - - -
Predicted Seats - - - - - - - - - - - -
Público.[41]Obradoiro de Sociología - (01/02/2008) 44.6% 38.2% 5.0 % 3.0 % 1.3 % 1.6 % - - - - -
Predicted Seats - - - - - - - - - - - -
Antena 3[42]TNS Demoscopia (04/02/2008) 42.5% 39.3% - - - - - - - - - -
Predicted Seats 164-166 154-156 3 9 6 6-7 2 0 0 3 - -

[edit] Results

[edit] Congress

[discuss] – [edit]
Summary of the 9 March 2008 Congress of Deputies election results
Parties and alliances Votes % Seats
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (Partido Socialista Obrero Español)
People's Party (Partido Popular)
United Left (Izquierda Unida)
ICV-EUiA
Convergence and Union (Convergència i Unió)
Republican Left of Catalonia (Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya)
Basque Nationalist Party (Partido Nacionalista Vasco/Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea)
Canarian Coalition (Coalición Canaria)
Galician Nationalist Bloc (Bloque Nacionalista Galego)
  • Union of the Galician People (Unión do Povo Galego)
  • Nationalist Left (Esquerda Nacionalista)
  • Galician Unity (Unidade Galega)
  • Socialist Collective (Colectivo Socialista)
  • Inzar
  • Galician Nationalist Party-Galeguista Party (Partido Nacionalista Galego-Partido Galeguista)


Aragonese Council (Chunta Aragonesista)
Basque Solidarity (Eusko Alkartasuna)
Navarra Yes (Nafarroa Bai)
Total (turnout  %)   350
Source: El País Online

[edit] Senate

[discuss] – [edit]
Summary of the 9 March Senate of Spain election results
Parties and alliances Seats
People's Party (Partido Popular)
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (Partido Socialista Obrero Español)
Entesa Catalana de Progrés
Basque Nationalist Party (Partido Nacionalista Vasco/Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea)
Convergence and Union (Convergència i Unió)
Canarian Coalition (Coalición Canaria)
Members appointed by the regional legislatures
Total (turnout  %) 259
Source: El País Online

[edit] References

  1. ^ announcement of election date
  2. ^ El Periodico de Cataluña- 26/11/2007- Solbes confirma su permanencia en el Gobierno si el PSOE gana las elecciones legislativas
  3. ^ Agence France Press
  4. ^ AFP Manuel Pizarro podría ser ministro de Economía de Rajoy
  5. ^ Gallardón: He sido derrotado
  6. ^ Post in the blog of Pepe Blanco, member of the direction of the Socialist Party
  7. ^ El PP de Vizcaya alerta de que la crisis de Gallardón puede "costar el Gobierno"
  8. ^ http://www.elpais.com/articulo/espana/Rajoy/Aguirre/Gallardon/asisten/acto/clausura/conferencia/educacion/PP/elpepuesp/20080120elpepunac_2/Tes http://www.elmundo.es/elmundo/2008/01/20/espana/1200824766.html
  9. ^ Izquierda Unida Official Page
  10. ^ (Spanish)[Diario de Cordoba 4-12-2007 Felie Alcaraz renuncia a encabezar la lista de IU en Sevilla]
  11. ^ redistribution of seats for 2008
  12. ^ El PP copia el Lema de IU en su Ultima Campaña, Público, 23/11/2007
  13. ^ The Economist: Zapatero's bear fight
  14. ^ ABC.es l Página no encontrada
  15. ^ El PP se acerca al PSOE - Lavanguardia.es - Noticias, actualidad, última hora en Cataluña y España
  16. ^ [1]
  17. ^ Gráficos | elmundo.es
  18. ^ Proyecto As
  19. ^ http://www.antena3.com/a3noticias/
  20. ^ Proyecto As
  21. ^ (Spanish) El PSOE se despega y supera ya la ventaja de 2004 - Público.es
  22. ^ Estrella Digital 05/12/2007 - ESPAÑA: El PSOE obtendría una victoria ajustada si se celebraran ahora las elecciones, según la revista ‘Temas’
  23. ^ http://www.antena3.com/a3noticias/
  24. ^ PSOE y PP, separados por tres puntos al final de la legislatura - Expansión.com
  25. ^ Gráficos | elmundo.es
  26. ^ El PSOE sólo aventaja en tres puntos al PP y se genera un empate técnico- Lavanguardia.es - Noticias, actualidad, última hora en Cataluña y España
  27. ^ (Spanish) El PSOE gobernará en minoría con 167 escaños - Público.es
  28. ^ [2]
  29. ^ [3]
  30. ^ El PP sigue recortando distancias y se pone a sólo dos puntos del PSOE- Lavanguardia.es - Noticias, actualidad, última hora en Cataluña y España
  31. ^ El PSOE saca casi ocho puntos al PP · ELPAÍS.com
  32. ^ El PP sigue recortando distancias y se pone a sólo dos puntos del PSOE- Lavanguardia.es - Noticias, actualidad, última hora en Cataluña y España
  33. ^ [4]
  34. ^ [5]
  35. ^ (Spanish) El PP se acerca al PSOE, que no moviliza a los suyos - Público.es
  36. ^ (Spanish) El PP empieza a pagar la exclusión de Gallardón - Público.es
  37. ^ Proyecto As
  38. ^ Antena 3 television
  39. ^ ABC.es Hemeroteca: los socialistas parten con una ventaja de 38 puntos sobre el pp a un mes del 9 m
  40. ^ El PSOE aventaja en 3,4 puntos al PP · ELPAÍS.com
  41. ^ (Spanish) El PSOE eleva su ventaja sobre el PP a 6,4 puntos - Público.es
  42. ^ Barómetro Electoral de TNS Demoscopia para Antena 3 y Onda Cero - TNS Demoscopia - Sondeos y encuestas de opinión - Sectores - TNS España
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