•  "Into the Wild" camera operator Jacques Jouffret wins big at the SOC (Society of Capera Operators) Awards. [Variety]

•  Andrew O'Hehir wades into the Oscar season with a dense consideration of the rift between the Academy and movie-going audiences, perceived or otherwise. [Salon]

•  Sasha Stone checks in with the bookies. [Awards Daily]

•  "For this...," "For that..."  Anyway, Scott Rudin chats it up with Patrick Goldtein. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil wonders how Jon Stewart will fare in his sophomore attempt at hosting the Oscar bash. [Gold Derby]

•  The Oscars as mobile art?  Are we losing our minds? [The Carpetbagger]

•  Anthony Breznican sits down with composer and Oscar first-timer Michel Giacchino. [USA Today]

•  If you're itchin' to be the best, enter MCN's Oscar prediction contest for a shot at the entire Stanley Kubrick collection on DVD. [Movie City News]

•  T.L. Stanley ventures some predictions of her own. [Gold Rush]

•  Meanwhile, here's a cute set of predictions from "Jose the cab driver." [Cinematical]

Last night's ACE Eddie Awards ceremony at the Beverly Hilton was an airy affair with lots of respect for the craft and plenty of entertainment to go around.

Emcee Patton Oswalt was a riot, steering clear, for the most part, of industry jokes and just doing the tap dance of his comedy routine in between segments.

Christopher Rouse pulled off a quasi-surprise (to those expecting a near sweep for "No Country for Old Men" through the guilds circuit), winning in the dramatic feature category for his work on "The Bourne Ultimatum."

Word has it that it was a landslide victory, and I have to say, the room seemed more than enthused by the work that went into putting together Paul Greengrass' summer thrill-ride.  Just before actress Julie Benz read off Rouse's name, a few people in the crowd shouted out "Bourne!"

I spoke with Rouse in the green room after his win, which he said caught him totally off guard.  He was quite humbled when I posited the notion that audiences perhaps take away from "Bourne" the craft of the editing, the intensity of the visual menagerie, whether they realize it or not.  He may indeed be on his way to an Oscar as well.

Rouse is currently hard at work over on the Universal lot cutting Greengrass' "Green Zone," an Iraq drama inspired by Rajiv Chandrasekaran's "Imperial Life in the Emerald City."

"Juno" was also a favorite in the room, judging by reactions to Jason Reitman as a presenter, Dana Glauberman's name when mentioned here and there, etc.  However, Chris Lebenzon, an old pro at this stuff, reigned in the comedy category for "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street."

Oh, just before presenting the award to Lebenzon, filmmaker Michael Moore told a gut-busting story about why he owes his career to the Bush family.

It turns out, nearly 20 years ago, when he was working on the groundbreaking "Roger & Me," Moore knew nothing but nothing of the editing trade.  So vast was his ignorance that the first 20 hours he shot were slateless, because he didn't know what the heck a slate was.  He and his crew kept waiting for people to "pop their p's" so they could sync up the sound (yikes).

Moore said he called up an aqcuaintance, an editor in New York, and asked him to help out because he was, quite honestly, floundering in putting his doc together.  Later the next year, in January of 1989, while watching the inauguration of George Bush, Sr., Moore noticed his editorial savior in the crowd behind the new leader of the free world and wondered how he could have managed a spot on the stage.

As it turns out, the editor in question was Bush's nephew.  He didn't want to tell Moore at the time, Moore said, and he also mentioned that he "had this crazy cousin," Bush, Jr.  "Thank you, Bush family," Moore said, the crowd giggling along with him.

Moore also said that he bumped into Oscar telecast producer Gil Cates in the lobby area, "You know, the guy who played me off the stage last time," Moore said.  Cates apparently had apologized, telling Moore he wouldn't do it again.

Uh oh.

The night was full of touching tributes, including a hilarious presentation of the Golden Eddie to filmmaker Norman Jewison by comedic legend Carl Reiner.  William Friedkin, meanwhile, offered a great tribute to Lifetime Achievement recipient Bud Smith, who has worked with the director on more than a few endeavors, including "The Exorcist," "Sorceror" and "To Live and Die in L.A."

Cates, by the way, was on hand to present the great Millie Moore with her Lifetime Achievement Award.

Probably the most heart-felt moment of the evening came just before Hal Holbrook presented one of the night's awards.  He told a long and detailed story about how "Into the Wild" editor Jay Cassidy played around with the final scene between Holbrook's Ron Franz and Emile Hirsch's Chris McCandless in the film,.  Cassidy ultimately decided to interupt the sequence with a scene depicting Hirsch on the cusp of peril in Alaska before coming back to the emtional jeep scene for which Holbrook is so often remembered in the film.

Holbrook said he's spent much of his life somewhat oblivious to what editors add to the filmmaking process, and that his work on this film and his observations of Cassidy's work, specifically, brought him in tune with something he now sees as one of the most valuable aspects of the industry.  "Without Jay's decisions," Holbrook said," I would have never been nominated for an Academy Award."

Speaking of "Into the Wild," I also spoke with composer Michael Brook just before the show.  Most of it was talk of London, his former home, but we did touch on his score's disqualification by the Academy.  He said he was certainly surprised because, though there are plenty of songs in the pic, there is certainly no lack of score.  We both agreed there should be some changes in the branch's qualification process, a hot button issue in the awards watching community as of late.

Here are some pics from the show:


Christopher Rouse accepts the dramatic feature trophy for "The Bourne Ultimatum."



Michael Moore, mid-anecdote, just before presenting the comedy feature prize to Chris Lebenzon.



Lifetime Achivement Award presenter Gil Cates.



Presenter Jason Reitman, on cloud nine as of late.



One of our great treasures, Golden Eddie recipient Norman Jewison.



Bud Smith, refusing to get into a speech and ofering a simple
"thank you," as Billy Friedkin watches on.



Your comedy nominees...



...and the dramas.

Another day another awards show.  I will be at the ACE Awards dinner this evening at the Beverly Hilton and will report back on the festivities later tonight.

The feature film nominees:

Best Edited Feature Film (Dramatic):
"The Bourne Ultimatum," Christopher Rouse, A.C.E.
"Into the Wild," Jay Cassidy, A.C.E.
"Michael Clayton," John Gilroy, A.C.E.
"No Country for Old Men," Roderick Jaynes
"There Will Be Blood," Dylan Tichenor, A.C.E.

Best Edited Feature Film (Comedic):
"Hairspray," Michael Tronick, A.C.E.
"Juno," Dana E. Glauberman
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," Craig Wood & Steven E. Rivkin, A.C.E.
"Ratatouille," Darren Holmes, A.C.E.
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street," Chris Lebenzon, A.C.E.

Best Edited Documentary:
"Darfur Now," Edgar Burcksen, A.C.E. & Leonard Feinstein
"The Pixar Story," Leslie Iwerks & Stephen Myers, A.C.E.
"Sicko," Geoffrey Richman, Chris Seward & Dan Swietlik

•  Ryan Adams posits the Oscars as a repeat of the Super Bowl, with "No Country" repping the undefeated Pats and "Atonement," should it take down a BAFTA victory, standing in for those Cinderella G-Men. [Awards Daily]

•  The sound crew from "No Country" continues to make the rounds. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells chimes in on the Weinstein strategy for Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There" -- free "reel" in copies of yesterday's Variety. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Sasha Stone ponders the evergreen question: Who really marks up these ballots every year? [Awards Daily]

•  Todd Martens looks at the year's Grammy nominated film music, including work from Glen Hansard ("Once") and Eddie Vedder ("Into the Wild"). [The Envelope]

•  Speaking of Vedder, New York Magazine isn't keen on Pearl Jam's latest pro-Obama track. [Vulture]

•  The Buzzmeter favors "No Country," save a select few holdouts. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil takes note. [Gold Derby]

•  Yes, the biggest Hollywood party of the year has been cancelled. [New York Times]

•  Mark Olsen sits down with Oscar nominee (and dark horse supporting actor contender) Casey Affleck. [The Envelope]

•  Donn Freydkin sits down with Javier Bardem in one of a slew of interviews the actor has been giving in recent weeks. [USA Today]

Actor in a Supporting Role Hal Holbrook
Film Editing Jay Cassidy

•  Place your bets! [Hollywood Stock Exchange]

•  Sasha Stone previews the DGA race, warns against getting caught up in last minute predictions chaos, and mixes in some other considerations for good measure. [Awards Daily]

•  The DGA Awards, by the way, will be hosted by Carl Reiner. [Variety]

•  We've also got a massive preview of the awards, with looks at peripheral nominees (assistant directors, anyone?), the newbie nature of the group and some huzzahs for DGA attorney Jay Roth. [Variety]

•  An old post, but Jeffrey Wells considers nominations for art direction, cinematography, costume design and score to be "soft" tips of the hat for "Atonement." [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Tom O'Neil says to bank on Julie Christie at Sunday's SAG Awards.  Lionsgate flooded the screener market again. [Gold Derby]

•  David Carr makes some final observations on the nominations, taking note of the newbies and diversity in the line-up and pointing out that "Into the Wild" deserved "better treatment." [The Carpetbagger]

•  New York Magazine draws humorous parallls between the year's Best Picture nominees and the current political climate. [Vulture]

•  In analyzing this year's nominees, Kyle Smith makes us wonder why he's even in this business. [New York Post]

•  In case you haven't heard, things are looking up for the Oscar telecast. [Variety]

•  Scott Bowles follows it up and digs up some industry chit-chat on alternatives. [USA Today]

•  Finally, A.O. Scott writes up the legacy of Heath Ledger for The Paper of Record. [New York Times]

The final Buzzmeter rankings at The Envelope should come with a caveat.  Many of the participants in the collective have their own websites, and predictions could change before the announcement of Tuesday's nominees.  And in a race this tight, who can blame them?

The collective is going with Best Picture snubs for "Atonement" and "Into the Wild," but Emile Hirsch and Joe Wright make appearances nontheless.  I'm not sure how that works, but anyway, take a look.

This is a guild that nominates 15 films in three categories, so it's a little difficult to judge how they may or may not translate in the actual Art Directio category (beyond knowing that contemporary films are almost always left out of the mix).  But it is certainly beneficial to see which films have clear insustry support.

The usual suspects are here: "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men," "There Will Be Blood."  No "Juno" or "Into the Wild," but neither film showcases this craft.  However, with that in mind, "The Bourne Ultimatum" continues a stealthy trek through the guild precursor circuit by showing up in the contemporary category today.

"Atonement" gets its first guild mentions since the ASC mention at the beginning of the week (and what a long week it must have seemed to the Focus camp in that regard).  "American Gangster" also found its first industry love since two SAG nominations last month.

Finally, it has to be encouraging for Miramax to have "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" surprisingly pop up in the contemporary field.  As it continues to make a case for a Best Picture nomination, these guild citations only fuel the cause.

Here are the nominees:

PERIOD FILM:

"American Gangster" (Arthur Max)
"Atonement" (Sarah Greenwood)
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (Guy Hendrix Dyas)
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (Dante Ferretti)
"There Will Be Blood" (Jack Fisk)

FANTASY FILM:

"The Golden Compass" (Dennis Gassner)
"Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" (Stuart Craig)
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" (Rick Heinrichs)
"Ratatouille" (Harley Jessup)
"300" (James Bissell)

CONTEMPORARY FILM:

"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Peter Wenham)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Michel Eric and Laurent Ott)
"The Kite Runner" (Carlos Conti)
"Michael Clayton" (Kevin Thompson)
"No Country for Old Men" (Jess Gonchor)

"Into the Wild," "Juno," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" were among the nominees of today's American Cinema Editor awards, likely solidifying the final line-up for Best Picture.  Hopefuls like "Atonement" and "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" were ignored by the guild, the former having gone 1/5 with the industry's guild announcements over the last few weeks.

Here are the ACE's nominees:


BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC):

"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Christopher Rouse)
"Into the Wild" (Jay Cassidy)
"Michael Clayton" (John Gilroy)
"No Country for Old Men" (Roderick Jaynes)
"There Will Be Blood" (Dylan Tichenor)


BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY OR MUSICAL):

"Hairspray" (Michael Tronick)
"Juno" (Dana E. Glauberman)
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End" (Craig Wood & Stephen E. Rivkin)
"Ratatouille" (Darren Holmes)
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (Chris Lebenzon)

•  New York Magazine takes the horns to Miramax's campaign for "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" campaign... [Vulture]

•  ...and advocates Robert Downey, Jr.'s performance in "Zodiac." [Vulture]

•  Speaking of "Zodiac," Jeffrey Wells responds to yesterday's WGA awards announcement, which included James Vanderbuilt's adaptation. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  The WGA calls off its awards show, hours after rnominating screen contenders. [Variety]

•  Meanwhile, the Guild continues to make side deals with distributors. [New York Times]

•  Tom Hanks is kind of over it all. [The Envelope]

•  Oh, and the Beverly Hilton is in a pickle to say the least. [The Envelope]

•  Sasha Stone previews the ACE awards announcement. [Awards Daily]

•  Todd Martens ponders the Best Original Song race at the Golden Globes. [Extended Play]

•  Tom O'Neil tries his hand at hacking the WGA webmasters' intentions with the order in which yesterday's nominees were announced. [Gold Derby]

•  David Poland is on the same path, and also reports (sourceless, as usual) that many of the "snubbed" didn't send WGA screeners to members. [The Hot Blog]

•  He also inexplicably keeps "Into the Wild" out of his list of predicted Best Picture nominees. [Movie City News]

•  Lou Lumenick talks the Oscar season with O'Neil. [New York Post]

The only thing moderately surprising about today's WGA nominations is the inclusion of "Zodiac" in the field of adapted scripts.  Sure, the James Vanderbuilt adaptation of the Robert Graysmith novel received a nomination for the USC Scripter prize, but I felt that might have been more attributed to Graysmith than the actual script itself, which really has no structure to speak of and wouldn't seem the "typical" choice for this guild.  But, in any case, this reveals that industry support is indeed there.

The presence of "Knocked Up" in the original ranks should come as a shock to no one.  Judd Apatow was cited for his work two years ago on "The 40 Year Old Virgin" by the guild.  I don't expect this to translate to Oscar, however, given the WGA's penchant for recognizing comedies that AMPAS is fine with ignoring ("Stranger Than Fiction," "Thank You for Smoking," "Garden State," "Mean Girls,""Bend It Like Beckham," "The Station Agent," "Best in Show," "High Fidelity," the list goes on and on).

Otherwise, it was buisness as usual.  "Into the Wild" and "No Country for Old Men" remain the standouts during the precursor season that matters, as "There Will Be Blood" continues to make a case for itself as a Best Picture contender.  That, frankly, is shocking to me.  And the potential is all too possible for Scott Rudin to be his own worst enemy this season, because if both "No Country" and "Blood" make Oscar's final five, I could tell you a day-long story about how they will cancel each other out in the voting process.  Which means things ought to be looking even better for "Wild" -- but that's a whole other conversation.

"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" is also still in the thick of the year's competition, grabbing two makjor guild mentions this week, while "Atonement" has officially sunk like the heaviest stone one could have imagined.  At this point, the only hope for Joe Wright's film is the entire BAFTA/AMPAS crossover contingent to stick it in the #1 spot on their ballots.  Then, and only then, does it seem to have a prayer of finding a Best Picture nomination.

Ah, the malleability of an Oscar season.

According to Variety, "Into the Wild" and "No Country for Old Men" were among the nominees for the Cinema Audio Society, making them the clear industry favorites as the guild announcements continue to flow this week.  Each film was well represented by the Screen Actors Guild (4 nods for "Wild," 3 for "No Country"), each received a Directors Guild nomination and now, the Cinema Audio Society.  "No Country" also got some love from the American Society of Cinematographers, but surely Eric Gautier was this close to getting a mention there as well.

All of this is substantially important because the case continues to be made that these two films are the two best bets for Best Picture nominations in two weeks time.  Everything else is way up in the air, so it'll be an ugly fight to see who lands in the final three slots.

The Writers Guild of America will take time away from the picket lines today to announce its screen nominees.  "No Country" and "Wild" figure to be represented there as well.  Both screenplays were nominated for the USC Scripter award, which "No Country" won yesterday.

The other CAS nominees were "300," "The Bourne Ultimatum" and "Transformers."  No love for musicals "Hairspray" and "Sweeney Todd," the latter of which has been experiencing a nose-dive this awards season.

Eddie Vedder has made a rare music video appearance this year forfor Best Original Song hopeful "Guaranteed," from the "Into the Wild" soundtrack.  (Edited due to piss-poor researching on Vedder's music video appearances by yours truly.  I'm a child of theg runge era, and can only recall his long hiatus from doing them.  ANYWAY).  VH1 debuted the video earlier this week, and apparently, the gaffers were also on strike when director Marc Rocco shot the thing.

No, but seriously, folks...

It's good to see Vedder showing such committment to this project and his work in it.  Some of the finest songs of the year were in this film.  I was more moved by "Rise Up" and "Society," but "Guaranteed" is a solid track as well.

Here's the video:

Obviously, no live blogging happened this evening.  I was busy dealing with Dewer's rather than Jameson, but regardless, "No Country for Old Men" clearly had a dominant position at the end of the night.  Three wins, including Best Picture (I was one of the poor bastards on stage presenting the award -- top right corner...check your TiVo).

It's hard to consider the Coen brothers' film anything other than the frontrunner at this point, but there was also a clear air of "Into the Wild" respect in the room.  And with due cause, given that the Sean Penn film led the field of nominees.  Hal Holbrook in particular got a massive round of applause when his clip came up in the Best Supporting Actor category.

The only standing ovation, other than for Don Cheadle and the presentation of the first annual Joel Siegel Award, was for Daniel Day-Lewis, who gave one of the most heart-felt and honest acceptance speeches I think I've ever seen.  Half the room stood up to clap when his name was called.

The pre-show was tame to say the least, as red carpet arrivals weren't exactly earth-shattering.   George Clooney was the only star to cross the street and make time for the fans in the bleechers, a classy move from a classy guy.  Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie showed up with minutes to spare, and even had to wait in the wings to be seated after the first commercial break.

The after-party was also somewhat muted.  I bumped into Julian Schnabel, congratulated him, tried to find out why so many people think he's an asshole and came up totally digging the guy.  Don Cheadle, Cuba Gooding, Jr. and Paul Dano were milling about, but on the whole, it seemed most people checked out early.  I know for sure that Sean Penn, Eddie Vedder and Daniel Day-Lewis took off to enjoy each other's company.

And how about Day-Lewis?  The guy flew in from Dublin for the Palm Springs Film Festival Saturday (his plane broke down in Dublin and held him up considerably).  Then he flies out to New York Sunday for the presentation of the NYFCC awards, only to fly right back to Los Angeles for this evening's ceremony.  The guy hasn't slept all weekend.  What a trooper.

Anyway, the BFCA has always been a decent indicator of the eventual Oscar outcome (as you were consistently reminded of throughout the telecast).  This leaves many thinking "No Country for Old Men" has it in the bag, but even tonight there were industry people doubting its chances for a nomination...industry people who know from an Oscar season.  I'm not brave enough to say that much, but I do think this is going to be the first year in a while where the BFCA Best Picture winner didn't match up with Oscar.  But we'll see.  There's still plenty of time left for this film or that to turn up the campaign heat.

For tonight, in any case, the Coens rule the season.

The American Society of Cinematographers has announced its list of nominees.  Here they are, with nary a surprise in sight:

"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (Roger Deakins)
"Atonement" (Seamus McGarvey)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Janusz Kaminski)
"No Country for Old Men" (Roger Deakins)
"There Will be Blood" (Robert Elswit)

I really thought the guild would go for Harris Savides' work in either "American Gangster" or "Zodiac," since, in talking to the majority of the big names in this field over the last few weeks for a separate piece, his is the most lauded lenser of the bunch from within their ranks.  Eric Gautier seemed a decent bet for capturing the American West so gorgeously in "Into the Wild," not to mention the paitnerly qualities of Dariusz Wolski's work in "Sweeney Todd."  But I can certainly live with this line-up.

According to the ASC's press release (published below), Roger Deakins is the first lenser to grab two nominations in one year from the guild.  Each of his nods are well deserved to say the least, and it really does seem foregone that he's well on his way to his first Oscar next month.

In any case, this wouldn't be a shocking final five at the Oscars, with outside shots still possible for Gautier and Wolski.  Sasha Stone has an ASC/Oscar comparison chart up over at Awards Daily if you want to crunch the numbers.

Here's the full press release:

LOS ANGELES, January 7, 2008 — THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD and NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN with cinematography by Roger Deakins, ASC, BSC; THERE WILL BE BLOOD by Robert Elswit, ASC; THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY by Janusz Kaminski; and ATONEMENT by Seamus McGarvey, BSC have been nominated in the Feature Film category of the 22nd Annual American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Outstanding Achievement Awards competition. The winner will be announced here during the awards gala on January 26, at the Hollywood and Highland Grand Ballroom.

Deakins is the first cinematographer to claim two nominations in one year in the ASC Feature Film category. He was previously nominated five times and won twice (THE SHAWSHANK REDEMPTION, THE MAN WHO WASN’T THERE). This is the fourth ASC nomination for Kaminski, the second for Elswit, and the first for McGarvey.

“In the opinion of their peers, these four talented individuals have set the contemporary standard for artful cinematography in a very competitive field,” says Russ Alsobrook, ASC who chairs the organization’s Awards Committee. “They all succeeded in helping to create a sense of time and place while evoking emotional responses that were in tune with the intentions of the directors and actors.”

Deakins is from England, Kaminski is from Poland, McGarvey is from Ireland, and Elswit is a native of the United States.

“Artful cinematography is a global language, which frequently goes unnoticed by critics and the general public because it is usually designed to be unintrusive,” says ASC President Daryn Okada. “It requires innate talent, the ability to master a complex and constantly evolving craft, and a penchant for collaborating with many people for a common goal. Our purpose is to let our colleagues know we appreciate their artistry.”

I almost missed this piece from the bossman, Peter Bart, about the record number of screeners studios rushed to voters' doorsteps this year.  Bart ruminates on a few second-viewing questions that arised for him, and it might give you a little peek into the brain of an Academy member.  He dings a couple of titles, like "Inot the Wild," "No Country for Old Men" and "Juno," but still makes it a point of expressing fondness for them.

He kicks it off like so:

Movie studios seem to enjoy putting out mixed messages.

Every year they complain about the evils of screeners, yet keep dispatching them in ever greater quantity. If those nasty discs truly provide grist for piracy and inadequately represent the aesthetic quality of their films, why was there a record deluge this year (I personally received roughly 100)? And why were some screeners sent out even before the theatrical release of the films?

To be sure, the legalistic admonitions at the front of every screener are longer this year (and multilingual), as though the lawyers think anyone reads their dire warnings. At least the Academy has given up on those clunky vidplayers dispatched to voters two years ago that supposedly were going to solve the piracy issue.

And in closing...

Most of our "serious" filmmakers this year seemed to reside in a very dark place. Blood was gushing in "Sweeney Todd" like oil in "There Will Be Blood" and there were moments in this year's crop of war films that could have blended into the "torture porn" genre of "Hostel, Part II." On one level, I understand all this anger, but wonder whether these filmmakers are trapped in tortuous times or trapped within their own tortured egos.

Yes, the BFCA awards are tonight, but tomorrow brings the most anticipated announcement of the Oscar season: the Directors Guild of America's list of feature film nominees.  According to the DGA's official site, Guild president Michael Apted will make the announcement at 10:00 a.m. (PT).

The DGA has long been considered the best predictor of the eventual Best Picture outcome at the Academy.  Going back over the last 35 years, the Guild has picked 139 of 170 nominees for an accuracy rate of 80% or so.  That's better than any of us "pros" could ever hope to manage, that's for sure.  The Guild has displayed 100% accuracy on nine separate occassions, the four of the last five years being chief among them.  Prior to 1970, the DGA sported 10 nominees for feature films, which makes tallying those totals kind of pointless, but this sufficient chunk of data ought to be enough to persuade you that tomorrow's announcement is an important one.

Tom O'Neil has been collecting predictions from various Oscarweb prognosticators over at Gold Derby, yours truly included.  You can see my black and white take on tomorrow's likely five over there, but let's take a moment to dig into the hopefuls in this space as well.

No one but no one can be considered a shoo-in except for the Coen brothers, whose "No Country for Old Men" has shown up this naysayer by already displaying some grit last month, taking down two Screen Actors Guild nomiantions.  (Critics awards just don't compute for me as great indicator of an industry award.)  Beyond that, it's really a free-for-all.

Sean Penn has been getting stellar reactions at DGA screenings of "Into the Wild," a film already leading the way at the BFCA and SAG.  One would have to consider the actor/director to be on solid ground.

Ridley Scott is a helmer clearly revered by his guild, taking down nominations in some cases that didn't correspond to Best Picture nods ("Thelma & Louise," "Black Hawk Down").  "American Gangster" was the only film to be making any box office headway until "Juno" came around, and two SAG nominations (in surprising categories) indicate industry love for the product.

Speaking of "Juno," Jason Reitman's film has been unfairly relegated to consideration as "the 'Little Miss Sunshine' of 2007," when that's really not a computeable comparison.  Nevertheless, naysayers have been left mouth agape as the film has taken some major monetary strides on its way to potentially securing the light-hearted slot of the season with AMPAS.  Reitman's showing up here tomorrow should come as no surprise if it comes to pass, especially given all those TV directors in the guild with ties to actors like Allison Janney, Jason Bateman and Jennifer Garner.

There is a real opportunity for spoilerific things to happen, I think, outside of these strong potential candidates.  Tim Burton, for instance, has already nabbed a nomination from the BFCA and a win with the National Board of Review for helming the screen adaptation of "Sweeney Todd."

Denzel Washington, meanwhile, has seen his film, "The Great Debaters," met with standing ovations at DGA screenings.  But then, who wouldn't stand for Denzel?

Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" has been a critical darling throughout the precursor season, but did his Los Angeles antics while promoting the film leave a bad taste in voters' mouths?

Any number of peripheral surprises could pop up, from James Mangold ("3:10 to Yuma"") to Tony Gilroy (one to really watch for "Michael Clayton"), even Sidney Lumet ("Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"), a nominee here even when ignored by the Acadey ("Serpico," "Murder on the Orient Express").  David Fincher could even make good on a year-end rally of support for "Zodiac."

The real spoiler to watch, however, might just be Paul Thomas Anderson, whose "There Will Be Blood" has been the talk of the town, at least for the past two weeks.  A nomination tomorrow could be the first real step toward Best Picture aspirations, as an endorsement from the DGA has proven itself to be a telling seal of approval indeed.

But the safe bet always seems to surface, no?  Which leaves us with the very real possibility that Joe Wright could slide in for "Atonement," a film that lost steam after the festival circuit and a strong HFPA showing, but is still lingering in the mix nonetheless.

What do I know, right?  Whatever happens tomorrow, it still ain't the end of the road.  Crazy things happen, like Christopher Nolan grabbing a mention for "Memento" in 2000 or Robert Zemeckis sliding in for "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" in 1988.  You just never can be too sure, so we'll have to see what the directors have in store for us in the morning.

Variety looks at the acting races this weekend with an Awards Season Focus: 10 stories, all built around the thespians.

To kick it off, Stu Levine surveys the dark horse Oscar hopefuls that grabbed Golden Globe nominations, James McAvoy ("Atonement") and Helena Bonham Carter ("Sweeney Todd") among them.  But it begs the question, and not just for the dark horses that already need all the publicity they can get: Will contenders simply be hurting themselves by not showing up?  The dress rehearsal for Oscar is always the acceptance speech at a Golden Globe ceremony, so...just sayin...

Anyway, continuing, Robert Hofler gets into comedic performances getting the shaft, while Peter Debruge takes a healthy look at critical consensus building for various portrayals.  Despite consensus, however, Robert Abele wonders whether old-timers like Frank Langella ("Starting Out in the Evening") or youthful hopefuls like Emile Hirsch ("Into the Wild") could step in and surprise a la Adrien Brody's 2002 victory for "The Pianist."

There's also a great piece from Sandee Angulo Chen about the modern abandonment of Method acting technique, but take a look at the full range of stories, there's plenty to chew on.

•  Tom O'Neil has a little inside scoop from yesterday's National Society of Film Critics awards voting. [Gold Derby]

•  Sasha Stone, meanwhile, perhaps jumps the gun by insisting "There Will Be Blood" is the Best Picture frontrunner (with nothing to go on but critical awards and one nomination in the guild arena thus far). [Awards Daily]

•  Speaking of which, Ed Pilkington sits down with "Blood" helmer Paul Thomas Anderson. [Guardian]

•  Jeffrey Wells talks "Sweeney Todd" with the "affable" Tim Burton. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  The Oscar season gets a hard look from the Gray Lady's critics, starting with a love letter to "Zodiac" from Manohla Dargis. [New York Times]
    
     Dargis' original review of the film dated Mar. 2, 2007. [New York Times]

•  A.O. Scott, meanwhile, digs back into Alexander Supertramp and "Into the Wild." [New York Times]
    
     Scott's original review of the film, dated Sept. 27, 2007. [New York Times]

•  And Stephen Holden goes "Across the Universe" one more time for good measure (thinking a little more outside the Oscar box than his colleagues). [New York Times]
    
     Holden's original review, dated Sept. 14, 2007. [New York Times]

•  David Carr, meanwhile, takes a look at the WGA strike's implications on Oscar. [New York Times]

•  And finally, Caryn James digs into the career of Best Actor hopeful George Clooney. [New York Times]

•  Some photos from thee Palm Springs International Film Festival, well underway. [The Envelope]

•  First looks at Demian Bichir in next year's Oscar hopefuls "The Argentine" and "Guerilla" (both from Steven Soderbergh). [Ain't It Cool News]

Looking at Awards Daily's USC Scripter preview, something just seems a bit clinical about Sasha Stone's list of predicted nominees.  This is an award that has certainly included curevablls in the mix:  "The Bourne Supremacy," "Friday Night Lights" and "The Door in the Floor" in 2004; "The Shipping News" in 2001; "All the Pretty Horses" and "The House of Mirth" in 2000, etc.  Granted, looking back over the award's match-up with Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars, the safe bet is usually to expect the frontrunners to pop up, but there's a wide swath to pick from this year.

Sasha is going with "Atonement," "Charlie Wilson's War," "Into the Wild," "No Country for Old Men," and "There Will Be Blood."  Of course, as Stone points out, the Scripter honors both the screenwriters and the originalauthors of the source material, so it's really hard to expect Ian McEwan, Cormac McCarthy and Upton Sinclair missing from the mix.  I'm not as sold on George Crile and even Jon Krakauer, but it's certainly likely we'll see these scripts show up here and with Oscar.  Still, "The Kite Runner" was such a global hit when it landed on bookshelves and Dennis Lehane ("Gone Baby Gone") is such a celebrated author.  And given the "Bourne" entry in '04, who's to say Tony Gilroy can't slide in yet again for what has widely been considered the best offering in the trilogy?

It's all speculation for now, so we'll have to wait and see.  But the USC Scripter kicks off 2008's continuance of the Oscar season tomorrow, so stay tuned...

•  Anne Thompson assesses the potential lack of a Golden Globes telecast... [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  ...and runs into "The Dark Knight" helmer Christopher Nolan at a holiday gathering this week, grills him on the IMAX experience of th 2008 WB tentpole. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Pete Hammond also digs into the awards show dillemmas before offering thoughts on later season hopefuls. [The Envelope]

•  Michael Cieply is also hot on the trail of the Globes situation. [New York Times]

•  Jeffrey Wells is back on the "Oscar prognostication should be about spotlighting quality" thing again. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Sasha Stone has a look at IFC's "Oconoclasts" with Sean Penn and Jon Krakauer, a very absorbing "Guy's guy" special that I'd encourage anyone, fan of "Into the Wild" or not, to give a look. [Awards Daily]

•  Tom O'Neil tries to get a bead on the comedy/musical races at the Globes. [Gold Derby]

•  Claudia Puig hails "Michael Clayton" the best film of 2007. [USA Today]

•  Rainn Wilson will be stepping in for Sarah Silverman as host of the IFP Awards. [Variety]

•  Following in the footsteps of Nathaniel Rogers, David Carr offers up a list of contingency plans for a non-telecast Oscar ceremony. [The Carpetbagger]

•  Tom O'Neil becomes Oscar blogger #603 to quote A.O. Scott's "Sweeney Todd" review for all it's worth. [Gold Derby]

•  Slow news week much?  The LA Times offers up a gallery of Oscar winners turned blockbuster performers... [The Envelope]

•  ...and one covering the goings-on of Hollywood couples this year, of all things. [The Envelope]

•  Jeffrey Wells gives year's worst honors to "Are We Done Yet?" [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Ryan Pearson profiles "The Bucket List" star Jack Nicholson. [Associated Press]

•  Sasha Stone surveys the Best Picture field one...more...time, and keeps the ball rolling on Jamie Lynn Spears/"Juno."  Personally, I think that whole idea is a media creation. [Awards Daily]

•  David Poland offers one more Oscar column for 2007, somehow thinks the SAG-ignored "Sweeney Todd" is ahead of the SAG-embraced "Into the Wild." [Movie City News]

•  But at least he has his head in the right place regarding the fact that the Oscar ceremony simply won't shut down due to the strike. [The Hot Blog]

•  After this week's Vulture commentary on male nudity in films this year, Ramin Setoodeh offers up his list of 2007's top 10 nude scenes. [The Gold Digger]

•  Geoff Boucher cataches up with the brilliant Marjane Satrapi. [Los Angeles Times]

•  And Paul Brownfield catches up with the eccentric Julian Schnabel. [Los Angeles Times]

In a month given to superlatives lists, this post at New York Magazine's Vulture blog gets my vote for best blog entry of the year.

The entry is a response to a New York Observer story about Hollywood's willingness this year to rock out with its c*** out.
There are plenty of chuckle-inducing wang awards throughout, but here are the Oscar-related ones, I suppose:

Fiercest Wang: Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises. In Mortensen's much-talked-about naked knife-fight scene, he skillfully used his wang to create a diversion. It worked. On us, anyway.

Most Committed to Wangs: Judd Apatow, who has vowed to put wangs in all of his films, like he does with Seth Rogen.

Best Foreign-Language Wang: Tony Leung, Lust, Caution. Unfortunately, not even its NC-17 rating, full-frontal nudity, and violent, kinky sex scenes were enough to make Ang Lee's three-hour Chinese-language drama about the Japanese occupation of Shanghai in the thirties a box-office hit, proving once again that American moviegoers are a bunch of culture-less prudes.

Wang Most in Need of a Sandwich: Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild. Thanks to some cold water and the fact that Hirsch's character is in the midst of dying of starvation, his nude scene was not all that it could've been, tragically.

Best Wang in a Musical or Comedy: Sacha Baron Cohen, Sweeney Todd. Baron Cohen's "augmented" member is so huge and so tightly constricted by the pants he's wearing, it very nearly distracts from his excellent performance. Actually, it steals the movie.

Best Wang-Related Credit Sequence: Superbad.

Much as I hate to put a damper on Mr. Hirsch's SAG nomination this morning by linking to a jest of his junk, I have to say that "Wang Most in Need of a Sandwich" is a phrase that will have me laughing for the rest of the holiday -- easily.

Also, with all this in mind, I can't help but wonder whether Viggo Mortensen's nude brawl in the bath house has at least 90% to do with his awards notices this season.

The Screen Actors Guild announced its list of nominees in five cateogries today, and boy did Focus Features' "Atonement" take a major hit.  The Golden Globe nom leader showed a big goose egg from the actors, leaving some serious doubt for its Best Picture prospects this season.

On the other hand, Paramount Vantage's "Into the Wild" picked up a major head of steam after a weak HFPA showing by grabbing four nods, including a mention for Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture.  The film led the pack with four nods altogether.

Surprises included Johnny Depp (and his film, "Sweeney Todd") being absent from the roster, the first major mention of the season for Ruby Dee's supporting performance in "American Gangster" and, in a total head-spinner, "3:10 to Yuma" picking up some attention for its enemble.

Regarding the latter, it seems all the hard work Ben Foster and Peter Fonda have been putting into Q&A appearances for the film, not to mention Christian Bale's latest wave of December publicity here in town, paid off in the long run.  I couldn't be happier as I've been waiting patiently for some awards notice for the film all season long.

Typically SAG gets the ladies' categories right when i t comes to forecasting Oscar, especially in the leading category.  So we might have those arenas sewn up.  The fellas' areas are a different bag of tricks, however, seeing past mentions for actors like Russel Crowe ("Cinderella Man"), Don Cheadle ("Crash") and James Garner ("The Notebook") that didn't carry over with AMPAS.  With that in mind, I would personally say the weak spots are Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl"), Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises") and Tommy Lee Jones ("No Country for Old Men").

Today's announcement is significant in that it is the first set of nominations to come from the industry rather than critics groups and journalists.  The guilds are where it's at where predicting Oscar is concerned, so stay tuned over the next couple of weeks.

The full list of nominees:

Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tommy Lee Jones, "No Country for Old Men"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Catherine Keener, "Into the Wild"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
"3:10 to Yuma"
"American Gangster"
"Hairspray"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"

Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
"300"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"I Am Legend"
"The Kingdom"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"

Zzzzzzzzzzzzz......

"Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"Into the Wild"
"Juno"
"Knocked Up"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"
"There Will Be Blood" 

Variety has the story.

The only thing that sticks out about this morning's Golden Globe nominations is that "The Great Debaters" finally got a leg up, a "surprise" that a number of forecasters saw coming in the days leading up to the announcement.  But seriously, a monkey could have seen this stuff coming.

Focus' "Atonement" led the field by a wide margin with seven nominations, including the first tip of the hat this year for lead actor James McAvoy.  "Charlie Wilson's War" grabbed five nods while "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed four.

Paramount Vantage's "Into the Wild," meanwhile, got a significant ding -- two nominations, for Best Original Score and Best Original Song -- while "There Will Be Blood" showed up as one of SEVEN Best Drama nominees and in the Best Actor category for Daniel Day-Lewis' maniacal portrayal.

On the whole, it really does read like business as usual.  Nothing to talk about that tickles MY fancy, in any case.  Here's the Variety story.

(The HFPA website is slow to update the list, but it's coming.)

Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" led the BFCA nominations tally today with seven tips of the hat, including nods for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and, of course, a spot in the group's top ten list.

Jason Reitman's "Juno" wasn't far behind with six nods, while "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed five.

The morning's announcement was a huge boost -- nay, a shot in the arm for "Wild," one of a trio of Paramount Vantage hopefuls in this year's race.  Combined with a number of key mentions in yesterday's Chicago Film Critics nominations and the fact that, as far as I can tell, no film has ever solely led the BFCA field and missed out on a Best Picture nomination with the Academy, I'd say the Sean Penn effort is looking better than ever for a slot in the big five come January.

"Juno"'s tally of six was also exactly what Fox Searchlight's comedy hopeful needed to silence nay-sayers regarding its Academy potential.  It's clearly a formiddable contender.

Surprises included Best Actor mentions for Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") and Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises"), as well as supporting actress berths for Catherine Keener in "Into the Wild" (a quiet contender this season) and Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" (for all of five minutes of screentime).

Casey Affleck, meanwhile, grabbed some more steam for his supporting portrayal in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," perhaps on his way to securing the same nod with the Academy.  And Amy Adams finally makes a significant appearance this awards season for her performance in "Enchanted."

A definite nod of note is Cate Blanchett's citation for Best Actress in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."  It might perhaps be read as Oscar tea leaf reading on the BFCA's part more than anything, given how critically reviled the film was, yet how undeniably Academy friendly the performance might still be perceived.

Finally, six composers were allowed room to wiggle in that category, including the first notices of the season for Marco Beltrami ("3:10 to Yuma"), Clint Eastwood ("Grace is Gone") and Alan Menken ("Enchanted").

The BFCA tends to be the best precursor for predicting the eventual Oscar turn-out, mostly due to a list of ten Best Picture contenders and a willingness to nominate across a wide spectrum of categories.  This year they seem to have spread the wealth evenly enough to have a decent prediction percentage yet again.

The BFCA's ten Best Picture nominees (with vote totals):

"American Gangster" (2)
"Atonement" (5)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (4)
"Into the Wild" (7)
"Juno" (6)
"The Kite Runner" (2)
"Michael Clayton" (5)
"No Country for Old Men" (5)
"Sweeney Todd" (5)
"There Will Be Blood" (3)

The full list of nominees can be found on the BFCA website.  The awards will be broadcast live on VH1 on Monday, January 7, 2008, LIVE at 9:00 p/m. (e.s.t.).

Erik Childress' "Oscar Eye" column has the full list of Chicago Film Critics nominations mixed in with his tally of who's won what.  You have to kind of pick things out, but the full list is there.

"No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" continue to show up, but the group went out of its way to personally champion "Once" in more than a few areas, including Best Picture.

Casey Affleck popped up again for his supporting turn in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," while Viggo Mortensen found some Best Actor love for his work in David Cronenberg's "Eastern Promises."  Frank Langella also made another appearance in the lead field for "Starting Out in the Evening."

Another key contender showing up in the nominations is "Zodiac," which managed citations for Best Director (david Fincher) and Best Adapted Screenplay.

"Michael Clayton" led the way with seven nominations.  "Blood" wasn't far behind with six.  Nothing for "The Kite Runner" or "Sweeney Todd."

Best Picture
"Into the Wild"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
David Fincher, "Zodiac"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"

Best Actor
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Best Actress
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchet, "I'm Not There"
Jennifer Jason Leigh, "Margot at the Wedding"
Leslie Mann, "Knocked Up"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Best Adapted Screenplay
"Atonement"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Zodiac"

Best Original Screenplay
"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"

Best Cinematography
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Score
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"Lust, Caution"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Animated Feature
"Beowulf"
"Meet the Robinsons"
"Persepolis"
"Ratatouille"
"The Simpsons Movie"

Best Foreign Film
"4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"
"The Orphanage"

Best Documentary
"Darfur Now"
"The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters"
"Lake of Fire"
"No End in Sight"
"Sicko"

Promising Director
Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
John Carney, "Once"
Craig Gillespie, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Sarah Polley, "Away from Her"

Promising Performer
Nikki Blonsky, "Hairspray"
Michael Cera, "Juno"/"Superbad"
Glen Hansard, "Once"
Carice van Houten, "Black Book"
Tang Wei, "Lust, Caution"

What might be presumed the two frontrunners for Best Original Song, "Guaranteed" from "Into the Wild" and "Falling Slowly" from "Once" both received Grammy nominations today.  They were the only two songs nominated for films released this year, as the other three tunes in the category were from "Casino Royale," "Dreamgirls" and "Happy Feet" respectively.