•  Alexandra Peers has the scoop on Julian Schnabel's latest art exhibit, "Navigations," amidst critical and industry kudos for "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." [Vulture]

•  Dave Karger sits down with "In the Valley of Elah" and "No Country for Old Men" star Tommy Lee Jones. [Entertainment Weekly]

•  NBC is set to loose a bundle due to cancellation of the Golden Globes telecast. [Wall Street Journal]

•  The soundtrack to "Juno" lands at #8 on the Billboard charts. ("Sonic Youth sucks.  It's just noise.") [Extended Play]

•  The People's Choice Awards weren't much of a hit with the "people." [Variety]

•  "No Country" wins yet another Best Picture award, this time from the Online Film Critics Society. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells is four-square behind "I drink your milkshake" as a marketing must for Paramount Vantage's "There Will Be Blood" Oscar campaign. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  David Poland talks to "Sweeney Todd" helmer Tim Burton. [The Hot Blog]

•  Nathaniel Rogers launches a new podcast series, beginning with the heart-stopping Marisa Tomei.  (Hey, she stops my heart.) [The Film Experience]

•  Oh yeah...Gurus 2.0. [Movie City News]

Yes, the BFCA awards are tonight, but tomorrow brings the most anticipated announcement of the Oscar season: the Directors Guild of America's list of feature film nominees.  According to the DGA's official site, Guild president Michael Apted will make the announcement at 10:00 a.m. (PT).

The DGA has long been considered the best predictor of the eventual Best Picture outcome at the Academy.  Going back over the last 35 years, the Guild has picked 139 of 170 nominees for an accuracy rate of 80% or so.  That's better than any of us "pros" could ever hope to manage, that's for sure.  The Guild has displayed 100% accuracy on nine separate occassions, the four of the last five years being chief among them.  Prior to 1970, the DGA sported 10 nominees for feature films, which makes tallying those totals kind of pointless, but this sufficient chunk of data ought to be enough to persuade you that tomorrow's announcement is an important one.

Tom O'Neil has been collecting predictions from various Oscarweb prognosticators over at Gold Derby, yours truly included.  You can see my black and white take on tomorrow's likely five over there, but let's take a moment to dig into the hopefuls in this space as well.

No one but no one can be considered a shoo-in except for the Coen brothers, whose "No Country for Old Men" has shown up this naysayer by already displaying some grit last month, taking down two Screen Actors Guild nomiantions.  (Critics awards just don't compute for me as great indicator of an industry award.)  Beyond that, it's really a free-for-all.

Sean Penn has been getting stellar reactions at DGA screenings of "Into the Wild," a film already leading the way at the BFCA and SAG.  One would have to consider the actor/director to be on solid ground.

Ridley Scott is a helmer clearly revered by his guild, taking down nominations in some cases that didn't correspond to Best Picture nods ("Thelma & Louise," "Black Hawk Down").  "American Gangster" was the only film to be making any box office headway until "Juno" came around, and two SAG nominations (in surprising categories) indicate industry love for the product.

Speaking of "Juno," Jason Reitman's film has been unfairly relegated to consideration as "the 'Little Miss Sunshine' of 2007," when that's really not a computeable comparison.  Nevertheless, naysayers have been left mouth agape as the film has taken some major monetary strides on its way to potentially securing the light-hearted slot of the season with AMPAS.  Reitman's showing up here tomorrow should come as no surprise if it comes to pass, especially given all those TV directors in the guild with ties to actors like Allison Janney, Jason Bateman and Jennifer Garner.

There is a real opportunity for spoilerific things to happen, I think, outside of these strong potential candidates.  Tim Burton, for instance, has already nabbed a nomination from the BFCA and a win with the National Board of Review for helming the screen adaptation of "Sweeney Todd."

Denzel Washington, meanwhile, has seen his film, "The Great Debaters," met with standing ovations at DGA screenings.  But then, who wouldn't stand for Denzel?

Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" has been a critical darling throughout the precursor season, but did his Los Angeles antics while promoting the film leave a bad taste in voters' mouths?

Any number of peripheral surprises could pop up, from James Mangold ("3:10 to Yuma"") to Tony Gilroy (one to really watch for "Michael Clayton"), even Sidney Lumet ("Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"), a nominee here even when ignored by the Acadey ("Serpico," "Murder on the Orient Express").  David Fincher could even make good on a year-end rally of support for "Zodiac."

The real spoiler to watch, however, might just be Paul Thomas Anderson, whose "There Will Be Blood" has been the talk of the town, at least for the past two weeks.  A nomination tomorrow could be the first real step toward Best Picture aspirations, as an endorsement from the DGA has proven itself to be a telling seal of approval indeed.

But the safe bet always seems to surface, no?  Which leaves us with the very real possibility that Joe Wright could slide in for "Atonement," a film that lost steam after the festival circuit and a strong HFPA showing, but is still lingering in the mix nonetheless.

What do I know, right?  Whatever happens tomorrow, it still ain't the end of the road.  Crazy things happen, like Christopher Nolan grabbing a mention for "Memento" in 2000 or Robert Zemeckis sliding in for "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" in 1988.  You just never can be too sure, so we'll have to see what the directors have in store for us in the morning.

•  Tom O'Neil has a little inside scoop from yesterday's National Society of Film Critics awards voting. [Gold Derby]

•  Sasha Stone, meanwhile, perhaps jumps the gun by insisting "There Will Be Blood" is the Best Picture frontrunner (with nothing to go on but critical awards and one nomination in the guild arena thus far). [Awards Daily]

•  Speaking of which, Ed Pilkington sits down with "Blood" helmer Paul Thomas Anderson. [Guardian]

•  Jeffrey Wells talks "Sweeney Todd" with the "affable" Tim Burton. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  The Oscar season gets a hard look from the Gray Lady's critics, starting with a love letter to "Zodiac" from Manohla Dargis. [New York Times]
    
     Dargis' original review of the film dated Mar. 2, 2007. [New York Times]

•  A.O. Scott, meanwhile, digs back into Alexander Supertramp and "Into the Wild." [New York Times]
    
     Scott's original review of the film, dated Sept. 27, 2007. [New York Times]

•  And Stephen Holden goes "Across the Universe" one more time for good measure (thinking a little more outside the Oscar box than his colleagues). [New York Times]
    
     Holden's original review, dated Sept. 14, 2007. [New York Times]

•  David Carr, meanwhile, takes a look at the WGA strike's implications on Oscar. [New York Times]

•  And finally, Caryn James digs into the career of Best Actor hopeful George Clooney. [New York Times]

•  Some photos from thee Palm Springs International Film Festival, well underway. [The Envelope]

•  First looks at Demian Bichir in next year's Oscar hopefuls "The Argentine" and "Guerilla" (both from Steven Soderbergh). [Ain't It Cool News]

•  Anne Thompson talks up the new trailer for "Miss Petigrew Lives for a Day" starring Frances McDormand and Amy Adams. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  The WGA picks and chooses yet again, denies awards shows waivers for its members to write on telecasts. [Variety]

•  Meanwhile, sources tell Tom O'Neil that the Golden Globes may go on without a telecast at all. [Gold Derby]

•  Adam Baer claims that Tim Burton has "re-invented the movie musical" with "Sweeney Todd."  Really? [Los Angeles Times]

•  Jeffrey Wells is not-so-stealthily anticipating the release of "The Dark Knight" and Heath Ledger's maniacal portrayal of the Joker. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Speaking of Batsy, Matthew Dessem decides to smack Warner Bros. down for the exhaustive PR campaign behind the film. [Vulture]

•  "Live Free or Die Hard" actually makes a top 10 list. [Gold Rush]

•  As expected, "No Country for Old Men" is walking away with the title "critics' favorite" this year. [Movie City News]

•  Speaking of top 10 lists, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" tops David Edelstein's at New York Magazine. [The Projectionist]

Check it out.

Of course, all of Burton's films -- well, for the most part -- have pretty sweet opening credit designs.  My favorite is "Batman," naturally, tracking through the Dark Knight's logo until the big reveal at the end.

I also liked the sequel's stalking of baby Cobblepot through the sewers of Gotham like some morbid Moses in a manger.

Oh, and the graveyard sequence in "Ed Wood."  Ah, who am I kidding...I love them all.

Of course the most frequent comparison here has been to Burton's "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory," the chocolate replaced with blood for the purposes of "Sweeney."  I liked the "Charlie" sequence better, but I love the Sondheim booming over these titles, almost more so than Danny Elfman's classic themes in the "Batman" opening.  When the organ settles in over the DreamWorks logo, it almost cuts into the marrow.

Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" led the BFCA nominations tally today with seven tips of the hat, including nods for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and, of course, a spot in the group's top ten list.

Jason Reitman's "Juno" wasn't far behind with six nods, while "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed five.

The morning's announcement was a huge boost -- nay, a shot in the arm for "Wild," one of a trio of Paramount Vantage hopefuls in this year's race.  Combined with a number of key mentions in yesterday's Chicago Film Critics nominations and the fact that, as far as I can tell, no film has ever solely led the BFCA field and missed out on a Best Picture nomination with the Academy, I'd say the Sean Penn effort is looking better than ever for a slot in the big five come January.

"Juno"'s tally of six was also exactly what Fox Searchlight's comedy hopeful needed to silence nay-sayers regarding its Academy potential.  It's clearly a formiddable contender.

Surprises included Best Actor mentions for Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") and Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises"), as well as supporting actress berths for Catherine Keener in "Into the Wild" (a quiet contender this season) and Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" (for all of five minutes of screentime).

Casey Affleck, meanwhile, grabbed some more steam for his supporting portrayal in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," perhaps on his way to securing the same nod with the Academy.  And Amy Adams finally makes a significant appearance this awards season for her performance in "Enchanted."

A definite nod of note is Cate Blanchett's citation for Best Actress in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."  It might perhaps be read as Oscar tea leaf reading on the BFCA's part more than anything, given how critically reviled the film was, yet how undeniably Academy friendly the performance might still be perceived.

Finally, six composers were allowed room to wiggle in that category, including the first notices of the season for Marco Beltrami ("3:10 to Yuma"), Clint Eastwood ("Grace is Gone") and Alan Menken ("Enchanted").

The BFCA tends to be the best precursor for predicting the eventual Oscar turn-out, mostly due to a list of ten Best Picture contenders and a willingness to nominate across a wide spectrum of categories.  This year they seem to have spread the wealth evenly enough to have a decent prediction percentage yet again.

The BFCA's ten Best Picture nominees (with vote totals):

"American Gangster" (2)
"Atonement" (5)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (4)
"Into the Wild" (7)
"Juno" (6)
"The Kite Runner" (2)
"Michael Clayton" (5)
"No Country for Old Men" (5)
"Sweeney Todd" (5)
"There Will Be Blood" (3)

The full list of nominees can be found on the BFCA website.  The awards will be broadcast live on VH1 on Monday, January 7, 2008, LIVE at 9:00 p/m. (e.s.t.).

I told Johnny Depp he was beautiful last night.  Kind of fell out.  Not in any stalker-ish way, just sort of happened: "Johnny, you're beautiful, man, nice work in the film."

Weird.  Freudian?  I don't know.  But he is a pretty man...

Anyway, big, huge, massive crowd yesterday evening at the event, which immediately followed a screening of "Sweeney Todd."  I missed the movie due to another committment, but zipped on over for the reception just in time to be whisked away by Tom O'Neil for a Gold Derby podcast (God knows what I said in that thing).  I lost track of the money men and women in the crowd at some point: Joel Silver, Rita Wilson, Gary Shandling, James Franco, Sacha Baron Cohen, Steven Spielberg, David Geffen, and, of course, Depp (in a rare publicity appearance), Burton and the man himself, Stephen Sondheim.

I did manage to find out what grosses Depp and Burton out, by the way.  Nothing explosive, but hey, it seemed a fitting question.

For Depp, it's boogers.  Not a fan.  He didn't even hesitate.  Burton took a little extra time, however.  He didn't seem to have anything in mind until he apparently flashed back to childhood and proclaimed forced schooling as something that grossed him out.  Fair enough, dark one.

The crowd seemed enthusiastic (who wouldn't be?).  I mingled with Anne Thompson long enough to exchange unpleasantries on "I Am Legend" before getting out of dodge, but it was good times all around.  O'Neil told me the crowd stayed in their seats, transfixed after the credits rolled -- but we all know how much Tom O loves this thing, so who knows.  I wouldn't say it's a stretch, though, as the mood was an excited and jovial one.

Lots of heavy-hitters on board for this thing, though.  Lots.

(Note: Of course that's not a pic of Depp from the event last night, but that IS the same fedora he was sporting.  My camera wasn't in tow, so this is the best I can offer.  Cheers.)

The New York-based National Board of Review has announced its list of award winners for the year, kick-starting the precursor circuit on the march through the 2007 film awards season.

The Coen brothers' "No Country for Old Men" took the Best Picture prize, leading a top ten list that included somewhat surprising mentions for "The Bourne Ultimatum" and "The Bucket List."

George Clooney won the Best Actor award for his performance in Tony Gilroy's "Michael Clayton," while Julie Christie took down Best Actress for her portrayal in Sarah Polley's "Away from Her."

Casey Affleck ("The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford") and Amy Ryan ("Gone Baby Gone") won in the supporting categories, while Tim Burton was named Best Director for "Sweeney Todd."

The last NBR Best Picture winner to miss a nomination from the Academy was "Quills" in 2000, and "Gods and Monsters" before that in 1998.  With "Charlie Wilson's War" coming up short (though some would argue this point), the film looks better for placement with AMPAS now than it did when it only had critics championing the cause.  Oh the give and take of Oscar season.

Winners from the press release:

Best Film: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Tim Burton, "Sweeney Todd"
Best Actor: George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Best Actress: Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Best Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Foreign Film: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best Documentary: "Body of War"
Best Animated Feature: "Ratatouille"
Best Ensemble Cast: "No Country for Old Men"
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: Ellen Page, "Juno"
Best Directorial Debut: Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Original Screenplay (tie): Diablo Cody, "Juno" and Nancy Oliver, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"

The top ten (in alphabetical order):
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"The Bucket List"
"Into the Wild"
"Juno"
"The Kite Runner"
"Lars and the Real Girl"
"Michael Clayton"
"Sweeney Todd"

Top five foreign films (in alphabetical order):
"4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days"
"The Band's Visit"
"The Counterfeiters"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"

Top five documentary films (in alphabetical order):
"Darfur Now"
"In the Shadow of the Moon"
"Nanking"
"Taxi to the Darkside"
"Toots"

Top independent films (in alphabetical order):
"Away from Her"
"Great World of Sound"
"Honeydripper"
"In the Valley of Elah"
"A Mighty Heart"
"The Namesake"
"Once"
"The Savages"
"Starting Out in the Evening"
"Waitress"

Career Achievement: Michael Douglas
William K. Everson Film History Award: Robert Osbourne
Career Achievement in Cinematography: Roger Deakins
The BVLGARI Award for NPR Freedom of Expression: "The Great Debaters" and "Persepolis"

•  David Carr runs some insular Times commentary regarind the L.A. premiere of "Juno." [The Carpetbagger]

•  Dissecting the potential "domestic strife" in screenwriter Diablo Cody's life via her tattoos.  Are we really going there? [The Envelope]

•  Todd Martens on intimate concert shindigs in lieu of sending music to Academy members. [The Envelope]

•  Sam Adams talks to the elusive Eddie Vedder about the tracks in "Into the Wild." [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil talks to our own Anne Thompson about the Oscar derby. [Gold Derby]

•  Sasha Stone cleans up her NBR predictions. [Awards Daily]

•  T.L. Stanley takes the measure of Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Terrence Howard's double-dipping potential. [Gold Rush]

•  David lunch talks to "Into the Wild" star Emile Hirsch. [The Hot Blog]

•  Ben Kawaller solicits some interesting comments from Tim Burton. [Vulture]

•  Lou Lumenick starts his Oscar overview, focusing on the big races... [New York Post]

•  ...and follows it up with some other ponderings in his blog. [New York Post]

First and foremost, Jeffrey Wells has written perhaps the most schizophrenic review of his career.  In one fell swoop he both calls the film "lifting," "arousing" and a Best Picture "lock," while at the same time considering it "so near yet so far" due to director Tim Burton's insistence on a bloody gore-fest.

Take out the general enthusiasm and you have my view entirely.  Buried somewhere in that review is the dichotomy the film presents, the depth of metaphor and potential that is perhaps rendered lifeless due to one-dimensionality.  But I'll get to those notions elsewhere.

David Poland also went ga-ga, claiming that Johnny Depp is "still likely to win" Best Actor, but that the film "is a very, very hard movie to judge objectively as someone who knows and loves the show."

And David Carr -- The Carpetbagger -- didn't exactly do cartwheels, but says that "Tim Burton’s evocation of darkest London was on par with the film version of Paris in 'Moulin Rouge.'"  He says the film has a tough road to hoe for a Best Picture nomination, but that "Johnny Depp will sing and slice his way into the best actor category with alacrity."

•  Anne Thompson sticks it to the Academy screening committe for not giving the little guys a chance -- namely, "Lars and the Real Girl." [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  indieWIRE tracks the buzz on documentary feature eigibility. [indieWIRE]

•  David Poland follows suit. [The Hot Blog]

•  And Sasha Stone, too. [Awards Daily]

•  Claiming that "The Bucket List," "Charlie Wilson's War" and "Sweeney Todd" are looking "hazy" as Best Picture contenders, Jeffrey Wells thinks "The Great Debaters" is the season's last major hope. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Nathaniel Rogers has more insights into last week's Tim Burton event in New York. [The Film Experience]

•  Tom O'Neil spins his wheels about the Oscar chances of "Margot at the Wedding." [Gold Derby]

•  Ramon Setoodeh is still taking credit for a prediction that a) wasn't that unpopular when he made it; and b) hasn't exactly come to fruition yet, given that we're over two months away from nominations. [The Gold Digger]

•  New York Magazine calls it a "great week for 'Diving Bell'" in it's latest weekly recap. [Vulture]

•  Lou Lumenick chimes in with thoughts on the online "Sweeney Todd" events of the week. [New York Post]

•  Randee Dawn talks to Noah Baumbach about "Margot at the Wedding." [The Hollywood Reporter]

Nathaniel Rogers over at The Film Experience was at the Lincoln Center in NYC last night as well for the Dreamworks unveiling of three musical sequences from Tim Burton's upcoming "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street."  Here's his reaction.

•  In a fantastic column, Nathaniel Rogers contemplates a 1999-like middle-brow Oscar response to a high-brow year, expresses doubts for the Coen brothers' "No Country for Old Men" (finally someone joining me in being even-handed about that film's Oscar potential) and Paul Thomas Anderson's "There Will Be Blood." [The Film Experience]

•  Anne Thompson comments on a record-breaking weekend for "American Gangster." [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Jeffrey Wells talks "No Country" with Josh Brolin. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Also passes on some second-hand information about Amy Adams' supposedly awards-quality performance drowning in the "timidity" of "Enchanted." [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Michael Ordoña talks to Best Supporting Actor contender Paul Dano about taking risks, passion and "There Will Be Blood." [Los Angeles Times]

•  Rachel Abramowitz spit-balls "Persepolis" with the brilliant Marjane Satrapi. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Chris Lee spotlights Will Smith and "I Am Legend."  (Here's a crazy idea: supposing Francis Lawrence and Akiva Goldsman didn't rape and pillage Richard Matheson's brilliant work, could Smith be a surprise lead actor contender?  Seriously.  It's a fantastic role.  Well -- yeah - I guess it IS Francis Lawrence and Akiva Goldsman.) [Los Angeles Times]

•  Rounding up the holiday movie love fest, Gina Piccalo talks "The Golden Compass" with director Chris Weitz. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Caryn James gets into the subject of violence in the season's cinema.  I just finished a piece for this trade on the VERY SAME SUBJECT.  At least we're all on the same page...it'll be a Bloody Christmas indeed. [New York Times]

•  Sylviane Gold talks to Stephen Sondheim, Tim Burton and Johnny Depp about "Sweeney Todd." [New York Times]