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Jack M. Guttentag The Mortgage Professor

Jack M. Guttentag, The Mortgage Professor

Making Smart Decisions on Mortgage Repayment

by Jack M. Guttentag

Very Good (241 Ratings)
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Posted on Tuesday, December 16, 2008, 12:00AM

The financial crisis has torpedoed the retirement planning of many seniors.

Those who followed the advice of investment advisors who preached that home owners should convert all their home equity into investments now find that their home equity is negative because of declining home prices.

At the same time, the value of any common stock they purchased by mortgaging their houses up to the hilt is probably way down because of the sharp decline in stock prices.

We can't undo the past, but we can make better decisions in the future. This is a guide on how to make decisions about mortgage repayment.

Repaying a Mortgage Is an Investment

The yield on mortgage repayment is the mortgage interest rate. Repaying a 6 percent mortgage yields 6 percent, the same return as acquiring a 6 percent bond.

Note: Bonds and mortgages have different interest compounding periods, which impacts their "effective return," but not by enough to worry about.

Before-Tax and After-Tax Returns

In comparing the return on mortgage repayment with the return on alternative investments that are taxable, it doesn't matter whether the comparison is made before-tax or after-tax. If you are comparing repayment of a 6 percent mortgage with acquisition of a 5 percent bond, for example, the before-tax comparison is 6 percent versus 5 percent.

The after-tax comparison, assuming the borrower is in the 40 percent tax bracket, is 3.6 percent versus 3 percent. If mortgage repayment earns the higher return before-tax, it also earns the higher return after-tax. If income on the alternative investment is not taxable, however, returns should be compared after-tax.

The Investment Decision

In general, borrowers should repay their mortgage when their mortgage rate is higher than the return on alternative investments of comparable risk. Since mortgage repayment carries no risk, the safest application of this rule would limit alternative investments to government securities, insured deposits, and other federally guaranteed assets. The returns available on such assets would usually be below the mortgage rate.

Borrowers can also compare the mortgage rate with returns on assets that do carry risk. To justify selecting such assets, they should carry a return above the mortgage rate large enough to justify the greater risk. But that is a difficult judgment to make, and it should reflect the capacity of the borrower to take the risk, which, among other things, varies with the borrower's age.

For example, I usually recommend that seniors involved in this exercise limit their selections to fixed-income assets. Over long periods, investment in a diversified portfolio of common stock yields a significantly higher return than mortgage repayment, but the volatility of returns on stocks is very high and includes episodes of negative returns, such as the one we are in now. Seniors may not have the time to wait for such episodes to run their course.

Allocating Excess Cash Flows

Borrowers are faced with two types of mortgage repayment decisions. In one, they invest excess cash flows each month over an indefinite future period.

They should allocate excess cash flow to mortgage repayment if the mortgage rate is higher than the return, adjusted for risk that can be earned that month on newly acquired financial assets. The owner confronts a new investment decision every month.

Liquidating Assets to Repay the Mortgage

Many seniors are faced with a different type of decision -- whether to liquidate financial assets in order to repay the entire mortgage loan balance. In making a one-time investment decision that is irrevocable, the borrower can't adjust to future changes in the investment rate. He has to look ahead and anticipate what these changes might be and how long he will be around.

To help deal with this problem, I developed a spreadsheet which allows a borrower to enter any scenario for future interest rates and compare his wealth in every future month in the two cases: where he liquidates his assets to repay the mortgage at the outset, and where he retains both the mortgage and the assets.

The spreadsheet is on my Web site and is titled Loan Repayment Versus Investment.

Anticipating a Reverse Annuity

Seniors in modest circumstances who have no interest in leaving an estate may have a special reason to prefer mortgage repayment to asset accumulation as a way of increasing their wealth. After age 62, the equity in their home can be converted into income by taking out a home equity conversion mortgage (HECM) while they continue to live in the house. If there is a mortgage balance at the time, it must be paid off with proceeds from the HECM, which reduces the income the owner can draw.

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107 Comments

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  • Yahoo! Finance User - Sunday, December 28, 2008, 9:19PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    I would prefer to hear that a retiree should try and pay off his house free and clear prior to retirement, therefore limiting his expense after retirement to only the monies needed for sustenance. If the retiree has any money left after that, they great - go out and travel or go to a show, you've earned it! When the retiree gets old enough and needs health care, maybe the home can be used with a reverse mortgage to acquire that health care. At the end of the day I think that it is a bad idea to retire and still have a mortgage debt or any other - even a HECM above attached to your shelter, unless they work like reverse mortgages where the retiree gets monthly payments until they pass away, but doesn't get a lump sum that he has to repay. That is a bad idea and a recipe for disaster and fraud. I think that liquidating assets to payoff a home is the correct idea though and I agree with that decision only because it is shelter and everyone without earnings potential needs it and shouldn't have to worry about it. And when you are no longer in a position to earn, then IMHO you should payoff your shelter in lieu of investments. Also, I believe that there should be property tax exemptions for retiree's. How can a government with a moral conscience, tax a retirees property when they know that their earnings can not pay the taxes and sustain their ability to buy the necessities of life. Toilet paper, food, etc... That tax is equivalent to cruel and unusual punishment and this is for doing nothing wrong. Although we cannot legislate that people act correctly with their money during their working years other than Social Security, we can ease the burden of property taxes for those that acted responsibly and paid off their homes so that they are not burdened by taxes they can no longer afford to pay. I say we the people, pass a bill with a Federal Law that prohibits property tax on a residential home that is fully paid for and that is resided in by a retired individual. Now that's the way to reward those that are acting properly to save the country money and should be rewarded for it. Imagine that you're old and can not earn a living, worked all of your live to pay off your home, but now you can not pay the property taxes on it and the government will foreclose on you for back taxes? Or do they wait until you die and take it from the estate - that would be okay as a compromise, but I believe that even that would add stress to an already stressful situation - that stressful situation being that you are nearing death. Why tax those that are nearing death and don't have an income - just shelter over their heads. I just don't get it. By allowing this type of tax exemption, the government would essence be rewarding those that took their money out of investments to pay their houses off free and clear. Please understand that many retirees that do not pay off their homes are not doing it out of greed, but are forced into higher risk investments in order to pay their property taxes - and if those risky investments lose - then we all lose and we pay for it out of all of our taxes for a state run home or something of that nature to shelter the individual that should still be living in their home. So, if any government official is reading this, do the morally correct thing and sponsor a bill that does just what I've laid out or something similar. The one thing that all humans have in common is that we all get old and none of us get out alive, so let us, Americans set the moral example for the rest of the world on how to treat the elderly! Please leave the old alone and only tax their income over a certain dollar amount but not their shelter. Thanks for listening and happy holidays to everyone!

  • NoNonsense - Tuesday, December 23, 2008, 3:52PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 3/5

    Another complicated scheme that most people will not be able to understand. Work hard, save regularly, live below your means. And keep one's expectations low and realistic. Home prices and market will fluctuate. If i learned anything from this crisis, it is that most of us (including me) can not predict the market, stock, housing or others.

  • Dave R - Tuesday, December 23, 2008, 1:27PM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 2/5

    Yeah, I'll add a comment. Who told who that Americans as well as the rest of the world's consumers was supposed to buy everything that was attainable on short term vehicles like the credit card. What did anyone expect. We have seen the warning signs for many years. I happen to be one who is going to stay in the market with the percentage of my asset base that has always been there. The experts tell us that not cashing out of the markets is really kind of stupid. You can then suppose that Warren Buffet is stupid also.. I don't think that is correct regarding Mr. Buffet. I think he is still one of the few richest people on Earth. I currently don't have a mortgage on our home and haven't since about 1987. Except a year or so when we relocated and I was starting a business. I am hoping to read something totally correct that will get the attention of every reader you have. something that will be helpful to the folks that are in a tight spot now. So get with it. Have a happy and joyous whatever holiday you celebrate. Best regard to all.

  • Timmie - Tuesday, December 23, 2008, 10:44AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    I paid off my mortgage when the sock market was still booming. For a while, I thought I had cashed out too soon and should have kept my money in the market intstead. Now that stocks have tanked, I'm glad I took profits when I did even if it was a bit early. It feels good having no mortgage debt.

  • Steve - Tuesday, December 23, 2008, 7:48AM ET  Report Abuse

    • Overall: 5/5

    Listen to all the financial Einsteins here posting their negative BS. We became a country addicted to debt and people who save and live in their means are looked at as idiots. How many of you nickle wizards have a free and clear homes they can call their OWN?? How many of you Dime magicians have no car payments and still are driving two very nice cars like we do? It's because people like you we get 0.5% on our saving account, have to take risks in conservative investments and we have to pay for your overblown lifestyle, overblown mortgages with our tax dollars. Whiny, I deserve it NOW, It's not my fault, please bail me out ninkopoops....

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