James Scully's Derby Report (February 5)

Holy Bull -- SARATOGA SINNER (Harlan's Holiday) established himself as a Kentucky Derby (G1) prospect with his victory in Saturday's Holy Bull S. (G3), notching a career-best 102 BRIS Speed rating in his first start versus winners, but the aftermath was disheartening. The Eddie Kenneally-trained colt exited the race with a chip in his knee that will sideline him until at least summer. With a pedigree well-suited for the 1 1/4-mile Derby distance and the potential for plenty of improvement, Saratoga Sinner's absence will be felt in a South Florida three-year-old colony that isn't very deep.

Track bias played a big role in the Holy Bull as the front runners took the best path (inside) and stuck on the speed-favoring oval. Canadian allowance winner BEAR'S ROCKET (Lion Heart), the longest shot on the board at 33-1, went right to the lead with Saratoga Sinner chasing him in second. Saratoga Sinner was able to overhaul the pacesetter nearing the eighth pole, eventually edging clear to a three-quarters of a length score, and Bear's Rocket easily held second by a three-length margin. The jury is still out on the legitimacy of these performances.

Third-placer WEST SIDE BERNIE (Bernstein) endured an opposite trip and was probably the best horse on Saturday. Burdened with a terrible outside post, West Side Bernie dropped back to last after the break and trailed his nine rivals through the opening half-mile. The Kelly Breen trainee then launched a visually stunning but wide rally on the far turn, circling at least five wide to reach contention at the top of the stretch, but he couldn't keep the momentum going. He did continue to plug on admirably to the wire.

Winner of the Kentucky Cup Juvenile (G3) and second in the Delta Jackpot S. (G3), West Side Bernie owns plenty of two-year-old foundation, and his three-year-old season is off to a promising start. With that being said, he is out of a Gilded Time mare and his ability to handle 10 furlongs is open to debate. His sire, Bernstein, was best in sprints, but Bernstein is by Storm Cat and hails from an Affirmed mare. West Side Bernie has never raced in a sprint, recording a 5-2-1-1 mark with a fast-finishing sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) also to his credit, and he gave a fine account of himself in his first attempt at 1 1/8 miles on Saturday. He's one to watch in his upcoming appearances.

BEETHOVEN (Sky Mesa) broke from post 10 in the Holy Bull, but he was able to secure a solid running position early and remained in position to challenge until the conclusion of the far turn when he began to falter, eventually weakening to fourth. Winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) going 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs, Beethoven doesn't own a pedigree for classic distances and will need to show much more in his upcoming starts to remain a viable Derby contender.

Gulfstream made a mockery of their three-year-old stakes schedule this year -- the Holy Bull is the first and last two-turn prep race until March 28 -- and Saturday's outcome didn't do much for me. Tampa Bay Downs looks like the best spot in Florida to prep for this year's Kentucky Derby.

Hutcheson -- CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN (Candy Ride [Arg]) relaxed nicely along the backstretch in Friday's Hutcheson S. (G2) and then rolled right past pacesetter HELLO BROADWAY (Broken Vow) at the top of the lane, eventually drawing clear to a 1 1/2-length victory in the seven-furlong contest. I liked his win last fall in the one-mile, one-turn Iroquois S. (G3) at Churchill Downs, but we didn't learn anything about his ability to handle a route of ground in the Hutcheson. Until he does so, Capt. Candyman Can will continue to be labeled as more of a sprinter/miler prospect than legitimate Derby contender. Trainer Ian Wilkes can keep him at one turn in his next start, the February 28 Fountain of Youth S. (G2), and I expect another top showing from the talented gelding.

Runner-up Hello Broadway is also unproven around two turns, but the half-brother to 2007 Wood Memorial (G1) winner Nobiz Like Shobiz owns a better pedigree for a route of ground. The Barclay Tagg runner recorded commendable BRIS Speed ratings in his last two starts, a 102 in the Hutcheson and a 103 for his runner-up finish in the one-mile Nashua S. (G3), and he's eligible to improve significantly off his first start of the year. After rating in his final two juvenile starts, the chestnut colt was too eager to run when the gates opened in the Hutcheson, winging it on the front end through a second quarter mile in :22.38. This isn't Hello Broadway's best running style, and he understandably got a little tired through the stretch run. Look for him to sit a stalking trip next time out, and I'm not willing to discount his chances at longer distances yet.

BREAK WATER EDISON (Lemon Drop Kid) was a complete disappointment. He ran poorly last season after breaking from an inside post in the Champagne S. (G1) and Hopeful S. (G1), and once again spit the bit early after breaking from the rail in the Hutcheson, fading to last in the final furlongs. Any horse that can't handle breaking from an inside post is ill-suited to the demands of the Kentucky Derby, and Break Water Edison has major issues right now.

Dutrow factor -- Disgruntled bettors/turf writers couldn't have been more off the mark in their recent criticism of Richard Dutrow, who took over the conditioning of the three-year-old This Ones for Phil (Untuttable) and won the Sunshine Millions Dash with him at long odds. You might as well tell me that trainers aren't important. Say what you want about Dutrow's character, but there's no denying the fact that he's an outstanding horsemen. He's going to move up any developing three-year-old who moves to his barn from Kathleen O'Connell or 90 percent of the trainers out there. Trainers have always played a huge part in Thoroughbred racing, and Dutrow's one of the best.

Now he's stocking his Kentucky Derby arsenal. Canadian stakes winner PATENA (Seeking the Gold), who opened 2009 with a good second in the Lecomte S. (G3), was purchased by IEAH Stables and transferred to Dutrow in late December. The promising late runner will make his first start under Dutrow's care in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 14. And earlier this week, Gulfstream allowance winner DANGER TO SOCIETY (Harlan's Holiday), who was in tight during the early stages of the Holy Bull and wound up seventh as the 9-5 favorite, was moved by owner Lansdon Robbins to Dutrow. Danger to Society suffered his first career setback on Saturday, but don't be surprised to see him rebound with a much better showing in his next start.

ALMA D'ORO (Medaglia d'Oro) is another three-year-old of interest in the Dutrow shedrow. After finishing fourth in his career debut at Churchill Downs for another conditioner, Alma d'Oro made his seasonal debut in a one-mile maiden special weight event at Gulfstream on January 15 and rolled to a five-length decision.

Dutrow, who had never saddled a Derby starter prior to Big Brown, may show up this year with several contenders.

Upcoming -- Saturday will feature three graded races with Derby implications. The Risen Star S. (G3) at Fair Grounds and Robert B. Lewis S. (G2) at Santa Anita are setting up to be important races for males, and the Las Virgenes S. (G1) will mark the seasonal debut of two-year-old filly champion STARDOM BOUND (Tapit). Now trained by Bobby Frankel, Stardom Bound will square off against her own sex in the one-mile event, and a strong showing will likely send her straight to the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 4.

The Risen Star contains Lecomte winner FRIESAN FIRE (A.P. Indy) and third-placer AU MOON (Malibu Moon), as well the returning GIANT OAK (Giant's Causeway), who concluded 2008 with a close second in the Kentucky Jockey Club. PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker) will be the top draw in the Bob Lewis, and the promising SHAFTED (Mineshaft), who opened this year with a good-looking allowance win going two turns at Santa Anita, is expected to make his U.S. stakes debut.