T-Mobile HTC Dream (G1) Android sells 500K units by end of 2008?

T-Mobile capping 3G usage as stipulated by http://www.t-mobileg1.com/3G.aspx

If your total data usage in any billing cycle is more than 1GB, your data throughput for the remainder of that cycle may be reduced to 50 kbps or less.

This is yet another signs of the immaturity of T-Mobile 3G coverage and probably an inadequate backhaul network as well.

Selling point is that it's Google.

Google may not have as many or as rabid fans as Apple, but we're only talking half as many sales over 2-3 months as iPhone 2 had over a weekend.

Pre-orders became temporarily unavailable on Sept 27 (http://www.engadget.com/2008/09/27/t-mobile-g1-pre-orders-sell-out/). There is a rumor that approximately 60,000 units had been pre-ordered thus far before the pre-order resumed working again. Given the pent-up hype, this seems to be an under whelming sale performance. Of course, this is limited to existing subscribers only (which is relatively significantly less than that of AT&T). With all the new iPhone killers coming out from Palm, Samsung, LG, Nokia, SonyEricsson and continued demand for iPhone, 500K is still a tall order to meet, IMO.

This prediction is looking good. Looks like G1 is a bonafide hit possibly eclipsing iPhone. According to this article from Motley Fool, already 1.5M G1 pre-ordered with 2M more for retail. With 2 weeks to go for pre-orders to be filled and the rush for non T-Mobile subscribers at retail, 500K is now possibly a milestone already passed.

Does anyone see a source where T-Mobile explicitly verifies this? Everything appears to be second-hand, and mainly from the blogosphere (no offense). I agree - this is incredible news. Can it be verified anywhere at this time? Is this all being whispered from a remarkable PR campaign?

Additional metric to consider (source: http://www.telecomdirectnews.com/do.php/140/31985):

and

Also on subscribers switching to AT&T for iPhone (source: http://arstechnica.com/journals/apple.ars/2008/10/06/report-iphone-3g-dr...)

My observations:
1) Pre-orders were only available to approximately 31.5M existing T-Mobile subscribers (which is 1/2 of sub count for AT&T). If Tmonews numbers are actuals, this represents a very low early adoption rate of 0.3%
2) T-Mobile subscribers are not major Data users (1/3 of AT&T, Verizon and Sprint)
3) iPhone 3G caused carrier switch as new subs to AT&T are 47% from Verizon, 24% from T-Mobile and 19% from Sprint. These early adopters subscribers are still under contract and is unlikely to return to T-Mobile. This represents a significant portion of potential G1 subscribers that is unlikely to be captured by end of this year.
4) Other recent news that Android G1 is not an iPhone competitor and reviews are pretty mixed
5) Android has been confirmed has the dreaded kill switch (may turn away potential subscribers)

Disclosure: Given more recent news and above observations, I have now placed a token "against" bet for a potential reward 700% ROI.

There is absolutely no reason for T-Mobile to comment on the 1.5M as it represent FREE publicity which only adds to the hype. Perhaps I should have made a larger token bet :(.

HTC CEO, Peter Chou, just made it official that the 1.5M figure is completely untrue. HTC is hoping to ship to T-Mobile US around 600K G1 by end of year (an increase above the original 400K projection). Since this prediction is for sales rather than shipment, it is questionable if T-Mobile can sell out a great majority of its shipment from HTC given its current lack luster sales.

In other Android related news...

http://thestandard.com/news/2008/10/30/motorola-says-no-android-phones-u...

Funny how iphone users think that everyone wants one. i don't. I want an open platform and since I'm already a Tmobile customer it's a simple step to move into the G1. Just the same, I never buy first generation technology. Let someone else be the guinea pig. For those of you foaming at the mouth about the "security flaw" found in Android - remember who found it? Mr Miller.

"Mr. Miller has previously gained attention for finding other vulnerabilities. In March, he received $10,000 and a Macintosh Air laptop in a contest at the CanSecWest security conference by reading the contents of a file stored on a Mac laptop by directing the machine to a Web site that was able to exploit a vulnerability in Apple’s Safari browser."

So get off your horse and come back to reality. All software is subject to security flaws and bugs no matter who wrote it. Yes that goes for Apple too.

@Garrick, simple explanations.

1. Prediction criteria is for T-Mobile sales and not HTC sales.
2. HTC shipment is to T-Mobile (not explicit as to whether the 1M shipment projection is for T-Mobile US or T-Mobile in general). G1s sold by T-Mobile in Europe do not count towards this prediction criteria.
3. Seems like there are plenty G1 still on shelves and not so good reviews.

Seems like information that can be used for judgment may only become available at T-Mobile Q4 earnings report (around Feb '09). Bets would potentially be frozen for nearly 2 months.

@TIS, not sure how credible this is but it was reported that 1M G1 sold in its first 61 days. However, this might be HTC numbers rather than T-Mobile.

T-Mobile full report for Q4 2008 will be out only on Feb 27. The full report should have information related to G1 sales.

Patience Jedi Derrick. Am sifting through T-Mobile's report, which does not specify any year-end or Q4 sales of the G1.

so what's the predictions on the htc magic g2 phone?

Dave naylor
http://www.davidnaylor.co.uk

Is Google gifting employees a G1 going to count against the totals? That would increase the installed base by 20K, some of which might go to T-Mobile.