EDITORIAL: Growing turmoil in Iran

Lives have been lost in escalating clashes between Iranian security forces and citizens challenging the outcome of Iran's June 12 presidential election.

Incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a hard-line conservative, swept the election with more than 60 percent of the votes. His reformist opponent, former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, lodged an appeal, citing vote count fraud. Around the nation, Mousavi supporters took to the streets in protest.

In his speech last Friday, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, denied the claims of election fraud and harshly warned protesters to stay off the streets. The next day, pro-reform citizens clashed with security forces in a renewed wave of violence. Khamenei's speech must have served as the cue for security forces to crack down on dissidents.

Tehran is currently under tight security, but we doubt this will help restore order to the nation. Mousavi is insisting that the election be declared invalid while former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a moderate conservative, is also critical of the Ahmadinejad administration.

The fact that the administration is being propped up by the Basij volunteer militia, which is linked to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, has drawn fire not only from reformists but even some conservatives as well. And now that Khamenei has shown his support for the administration, some street demonstrators have begun denouncing the supreme leader in public.

The situation is fluid, and we cannot but be deeply concerned about developments in the days ahead.

One worry is that Iran's dictatorial tendencies could become even more pronounced along with the administration's use of police and military forces to crack down on dissidents. And in order to tighten its reins at home, the administration may overplay foreign threats and let the Revolutionary Guards lead the nation down the path of militarism.

In that event, we cannot refute the possibility of Iran's uranium enrichment program, which has continued in defiance of the United Nations Security Council resolution, leading to nuclear armament.

Another worry is that Iran's Islamic system itself could collapse as a result of further escalation of popular protests against the current administration's hard-line policies. Some military and police officers do not approve of the ruthlessness of the Revolutionary Guards. Should they decide to side with dissidents, the nation could be thrown into the deepest chaos since the Iranian Revolution.

Such worries may be overblown. However, nobody anticipated the collapse of the pro-American regime of Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi 30 years ago. The Iranian Revolution that brought the monarch down had begun with the administration's ruthless suppression of pro-democracy elements.

For the time being, we pin our hopes on the possibility of a peaceful restoration of order within the Islamic system. If the nation's reformists and moderate conservatives manage to regain their ground with the support of the public at large, they could become a force capable of holding Khamenei and the administration in check to some degree.

Transforming itself into an open and democratic Islamic system is the key to Iran's future stability. The administration must refrain from violent hard-line measures and guarantee freedom of the press.

A more dictatorial and unstable Iran will adversely affect the entire Middle East. Japan, the United States and nations of Europe, which are keeping their distance from the Ahmadinejad administration, must prevail on Russia, China and other pro-Ahmadinejad nations to work together to prevent Iran from going in any extreme direction.

--The Asahi Shimbun, June 23(IHT/Asahi: June 24,2009)