Coal

KMO welcomes Albert K. Bates to the program and they sit down together for a chat with Richard Heinberg, author of Peak Everything. Albert admits that he's finding it hard to maintain his "soft lander" status in the face of mounting evidence, and Richard talks about the themes in his new book, Blackout: Coal, Climate and the last Energy Crisis.

In this engrossing discussion with Dr. Helen Caldicott, Richard Heinberg explains the situation of Peak Oil, and reminds us just how reliant our society is on the finite resources of oil, coal and gas.

For coal, the future of both extraction and consumption depends on new technology. If successfully deployed, innovative technologies could enable the use of coal that is unminable by gasifying it underground; reduce coal's carbon emissions; or allow coal to take the place of natural gas or petroleum. Without them, coal simply may not have much of a future. Are these technologies close to development? Are they economical? Will they work? Museletter #197.

Recent reports on global coal reserves, surveyed in previous chapters, generally point to the likelihood of supply limits appearing relatively soon—within the next two decades (a contrary view is represented solely by the BGR report ["Lignite and Hard Coal: Energy Suppliers for World Needs until the Year 2100 – An Outlook," 2007]). According to this near-consensus, coal output in China, the world's foremost producer, could begin to decline within just a few years. MuseLetter 196.

China is the world's foremost coal producer and consumer, surpassing the United States by a factor of two on both scores and accounting for 40 percent of total world production. Museletter #195.

The United States has the world's largest coal reserves. With energy prices constantly rising and coal considered a "cheap" alternative, Richard Heinberg's survey of the literature on coal reserves is important reading. There's reason to believe that reserves are being overestimated, as they have been through the industry's history. Museletter #194.

In this month's MuseLetter, Heinberg shares some material from his upcoming book on coal. Also included are his May column for The Ecologist magazine ("What Car do You Drive?"), a Foreword that he wrote for the new edition of Mat Stein’s brilliant book When Technology Fails, and a brief blog for the Post Carbon Institute website.

Coal prices are predicted to hit $300 per tonne this week, a threefold rise that eclipses even the most bullish forecasts made just a few days ago. Experts say there is still no ceiling in sight and predict further upward pressure on European power prices.

This MuseLetter, and several more during the next few months, will be chapters for a forthcoming book on coal, to be published by Post Carbon Press. This month's issue is the book's Introduction. The world appears poised for a headlong sprint toward greater dependence on coal. This book's purpose is to examine one crucial question that will shape this next great coal rush: How much is left?

All of a sudden coal, so long the Cinderella of fossil fuels, is not just in demand but in desperately short supply. A chance combination of crises in big producing and exporting countries has pushed the price of European imports to almost $140 per tonne – double the level of a year ago. But according to Gerard McCloskey, publisher of McCloskey's Coal Report, there is no quick fix to the coal crunch, and prices may still have a long way to go.