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Increasing risk of Palestinian and Israeli unrest in West Bank and Israel from March
Israeli forces pictured on the site of what was a Palestinian protest camp on 17 February 2015. Source: PAKhamenei's demand for 'one-step deal' reflects Iran's need for early sanctions relief to secure domestic support
A portrait of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei held up during a rally for the 36th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution under Azadi Tower, Tehran, on 11 February. Khamenei's demand for a 'one-step deal' reflects Iran's need for early sanctions relief to secure domestic support. Source: PAShifting defence diplomacy highlights Fiji's growing assertiveness as challenger to Australian regional security policy
Chinese President Xi Jinping (left) holds talks with Fijian prime minister Voreqe 'Frank' Bainimarama in Nadi, Fiji, on 22 November 2014. Source: PAOSINT: Suspected Boko Haram militants attack towns in Niger ahead of looming counter-insurgency offensive
Nigerian soldiers on patrol in Nigeria's capital Abuja on 7 February after presidential and legislative elections were postponed. Source: PA
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Country Risk Watch - March 2015
India reboots defence ties with US and opens nuclear energy sector India and the United States are to restart a stalled 2008 civil nuclear deal and scale up bilateral defence and security ties. Indian government officials released further details of the US-India nuclear deal
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Arab countries co-operate to fight Islamic State
Significance The Islamic State threat has underlined the need for co-operation between the intelligence agencies of Arab countries in the region around Iraq and Syria. In combination with the US-led air campaign, these intelligence agencies have enjoyed a degree of success in infiltrating the
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Islamic State's support infrastructure in Turkey raises risk of retaliation targeting Western diplomatic and commercial assets
EVENT A Turkish police intelligence report, leaked on 17 January, claimed that around 3,000 people were in Islamic State sleeper cells present "throughout the country". Although the accuracy of the report's estimate of sleeper numbers is difficult to ascertain, IHS sources have confirmed
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Elevated risk of clashes between rival supporters in one-month outlook as Lesotho prepares for February poll
EVENT Prime Minister Thomas Thabane's All Basotho Convention (ABC) will be unveiling its election manifesto for Lesotho's 28 February National Assembly elections on 1 February. The ABC faces the prospect of a post-poll alliance between former coalition partner the Lesotho Congress for Democracy
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Philippine militants' opposition to peace process, growing links with the Islamic State raise terrorism risks within Mindanao
Key Points Authorities have attributed the 25 January attack to the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG); this and other recent attacks indicate a potential intensification of the terrorism threat in southern Philippines, as spoiler groups attempt to derail the 2014 peace agreement between the government and the
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Hackers target global geonavigation networks
Global navigation satellite systems are vulnerable to attack from states, insurgents, and criminals using disruption devices to jam signals or fool them with false transmissions. Milosz Reterski assesses the growing risk to air traffic, defence systems, and shipping. -
IHS Jane's examines North Korean missile bases
The ongoing development of North Korea's missile capability has the potential to bring into question the US's commitment to its regional allies. In a detailed survey of satellite imagery over North Korea, Allison Puccioni assesses the current state of the threat. -
Russian PM's dismissal looks increasingly likely
Amid the economic crisis in Russia, the likelihood of President Vladimir Putin replacing his prime minister is increasing. Alisa Lockwood and Anna Arutunyan look at Putin's need to protect his own position, and who could be chosen to replace Dmitry Medvedev.
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Aero India 2015: New UAC chief bullish on fifth-gen fighter progress
New United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) CEO Yuri Slyusar is confident that Russia and India will sign a contract for the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) in 2015. "Rosoboronexport [Russia's defence export body] is in the final stage of negotiations for the FGFA contract," Slyusar
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USMC Crisis Response force leader pleased with capability, but warns of limitations
The US Marine Corps' (USMC's) special purpose crisis response unit concept continues to mature and evolve, and in an after action report one of the latest commanders praised the units' reach and capability but cautioned against relying too heavily upon these smaller organisations. Special Purpose
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UK commits to Type 26 demonstration phase
BAE Systems Maritime - Naval Ships has been awarded a GBP859 million (USD1.32 billion) contract to move forward with the demonstration phase of the UK Royal Navy's (RN's) Type 26 Global Combat Ship programme, paving the way for a transition to manufacture next year. The contract, announced on 20
